Notes of interest for july 23 from buffalo

[obwan]

When weather gets so complicated, sometimes you say, if it looks like duck, sounds like a duck and walks like a duck then it must be a storm!!

IT IS A THROW-OUT-THE-MODELS-AND-LOOK-AT-OBSERVATIONS DAY. 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS AND SOME CAPE AT THE START OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE
WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD...THERE ARE WEAK LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850 AND
700MB...ROUGHLY AROUND 5.5C/KM WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP CONVECTION
TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FOCUS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON IS WITH THE REMNANTS OF LAST
NIGHTS MCS OVER CHICAGO. THIS LEFT AN MCV WHICH WAS EARLIER NOTED
NEAR GRAND RAPIDS AT ABOUT 12Z...MOVING NORTHEAST. LARGER SCALE
WEAK CIRCULATION HOWEVER IS OVER SOUTHERN OH...WITH CONVECTION
RETURNING TO AN AREA BETWEEN TOLEDO AND CLEVELAND. LATEST LIGHTING
DATA SHOWS FEWER STRIKES AND HENCE SOME WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
HOUR HOWEVER. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD TAKE THE MCV TO NORTH OF
TORONTO BY 22Z...AND CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST ARRIVING OVER
SOUTHWEST NY A FEW HOURS EARLIER IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

POSSIBLY MORE INTERESTING HOWEVER IS THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVING THROUGH MN AND ENTERING NW WI AT 14Z THIS MORNING. BASED ON
A SPEED OF AROUND 30-35KTS...THIS WOULD TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AND HIT
WESTERN NY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LATCH ON THE THE
CURRENT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH
HAS BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

HAVE LEFT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN PLACE AS THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...BUT WILL ADJUST
TIMING OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWING THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE
POSSIBLE LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION STAYING
SOUTH OF A LINE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. THIS WOULD LEAVE AREAS FROM KROC EAST DRY...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

FROM A MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THE HRRR KILLS THE ABOVE MENTIONED LINE
AND OTHER MODELS SEEM TO BE IGNORING IT AS WELL...SO FORECAST IS
BASED ALMOST ENTIRELY ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA WITH LITTLE OR NO
INPUT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE.

ON A SIDE NOTE...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT OVER THE PAST YEARS
OVER THIS WEEKEND...WE HAVE HAD SOME INTERESTING WEATHER WITH
TORNADOES FROM NEARBY MCVS. THE CORFU AND HILTON TORNADO IN 2009
AND THE SOUTHERN TIER TORNADOES /MAYVILLE/ IN 2010 OCCURRED AROUND
THIS DATE. SO TO HAVE AN MCV NEARBY AND A SLIGHT RISK DURING
AROUND THIS PERIOD OF JULY FOR A THIRD YEAR IN A ROW IS NEAT...BUT
THAT IS WHERE THE SIMILARITY ENDS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE AS ALWAYS FOR
ANY UNUSUAL WEATHER.

[DarkSky]

^^ Yes, sometimes it's just downright over-analyzed

[Derecho]

What on Earth? That's about the silliest thing I've read all afternoon!

[Smokin Joe]

It's ironic we ended up with an f2 tornado after they wrote that!

[davefootball123]

Originally Posted by Smokin Joe

It's ironic we ended up with an f2 tornado after they wrote that!

Just a little. So you can now say this. For the past 3 years there has been an MCV in the great lakes area on the same day, that have lead to spawning at least 1 tornado during each year. Thats cool when you think about it

[Derecho]

Originally Posted by Smokin Joe

It's ironic we ended up with an f2 tornado after they wrote that!

I'm scared!