July 7th Storm Risk

[Storm Chaser]

It seems likely a morning-mid-day MCS will track across Southern Ontario tomorrow. EC says one or two of the storms could become severe, SPC has areas south of a line from Sarnia to Guelph to Kingston under a 5% risk, however I believe anywhere in Southern Ontario has a shot at a decent storm tomorrow with possible damaging winds. Wake up early and check the radar!

[Storm Chaser]

UPDATE: Latest hrrr run shows what appears to be a possible supercell beginning on the huron shores near grand bend and tracking into Hamilton at approx. 7am tomorrow. Keep an eye out!

[areid]

This may be a newb question, but what is an "hrrr run". I'm assuming it is some sort of forecast model. There are lots of great links on here to live radar, but I'm still a little lost on where to fine forecast models?

Thanks for the help in advance.

[Storm Chaser]

The hrrr is a high res model with a variety of fields that can be viewed for the next 15 hours. I use it mainly for future radar predictions using the composite reflectivity field. Here is the link to the NE region hrrr runs. Select any field you want for whichever hour you wish or hit loop to loop all the frames. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrcon...Jun+2010+-+17Z

[Storm Chaser]

For fields such as CAPE, shear, lifted indicies, precip forecasts, temperatre, wind, refer to this site which shows data for the RAP, NAM, and GFS models: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php...&archive=false

[areid]

Thanks a lot! I'm hoping to stay motivated to drag my butt out of bed early enough tomorrow to be able to decide which direction to drive in haha

[Storm Chaser]

If you dont have the program Gr Level 3, it is the best consumer radar viewing program to use. I use it for chasing all the time and love it. http://www.grlevelx.com/grlevel3_2/ that is the link to get it, you can get a 21 day trial period. GPS overlay is extremely effective for chasing along with spotternetwork feeds

[davefootball123]

Hey guys, I see the link to HRRR that Storm Chaser posted is for a set date/time so here is the link to the main hrrr page. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/

You can choose either 3km Conus Hourly which is hour by hour high res forecast or you can choose 3km 15minute which is the same except in 15 minute intervals. When you click either one you will be brought to the latest run. You can chose your area(best is NE for us) and you can also choose the run time via the drop down menus.

[Storm Chaser]

If you would like to wake up in time, 8am is likely a good time to aim for. Storms may come later but some runs have storms coming in even before then.

[davefootball123]

It all depends how the storms in MN/WI play out tonight. I think the HRRR may be overdoing early convection a bit. That would mean a better chance at some more convection in the afternoon. Then again thats only one model. Who knows what may occur.