Friday Storm Risk

[Storm Chaser]

Hi Everyone,

Just would like to inform you that Friday could be S ON's first decent chance at thunderstorms. With mild temps around 10C in many areas and a strong cold front coming through, many models as well as SPC predicts storms for areas especially along the north shore of Lake Erie.

[benjaminblizzard]

Do we know roughly what time the cold front will be passing through?

[DarkSky]

This is looking nice for the beginning of March :

[DarkSky]

875  WOCN11 CWTO 012020
 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
 ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
 AT 3:20 PM EST THURSDAY 1 MARCH 2012.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
 =NEW= CITY OF TORONTO
 =NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
 =NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
 =NEW= ELGIN
 =NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
 =NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
 =NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
 =NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
 =NEW= NIAGARA
 =NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
 =NEW= HALTON - PEEL
 =NEW= YORK - DURHAM
 =NEW= HURON - PERTH
 =NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
 =NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
 =NEW= GREY - BRUCE
 =NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
 =NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
 =NEW= KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
 =NEW= PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
 =NEW= STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
 =NEW= BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
 =NEW= BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
 =NEW= CITY OF OTTAWA
 =NEW= GATINEAU
 =NEW= PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
 =NEW= CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
 =NEW= SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE
 =NEW= PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
 =NEW= HALIBURTON
 =NEW= RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY
 =NEW= ALGONQUIN
 =NEW= BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
 ==DISCUSSION==

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
 SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO OVER
 THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF
 SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:

1) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO
 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

2) SNOWFALL OF UP TO 10 CM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT, IN A SWATH FROM
 THE BRUCE PENINSULA EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY TOWARD THE
 ALGONQUIN AREA. FOR MOST OF THESE REGIONS, THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
 CHANGE TO RAIN, AT LEAST BRIEFLY, BY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN CHANGE
 BACK TO SNOW LATER ON SATURDAY WITH FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
 THEREAFTER.

3) THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY FOR REGIONS NEAR THE OTTAWA RIVER
 VALLEY AND IN THE ALGONQUIN AREA.

4) VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
 EAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO BEGINNING IN THE LATE EVENING
 FRIDAY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS, THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
 NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
 PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM.
 ENVIRONMENT CANADA CONTINUES TO MONITOR ITS EVOLUTION CLOSELY.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT
 CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA


END/OSPC

[Storm Chaser]

Places south of a line from Sarnia to Hamilton have a shot at their first severe storm tommorow, places north may see non severe however i dont think places north of grand bend to Fergus will see much. I hope i get in on the action! got my first storm last night!

[Storm Chaser]

Latest 18UTC NAM brings low a bit more north than 12utc run and shows a line of convection passing through around 06UTC. Soundings show great dewpoints. Should be an interesting day with the main threat being damaging wind.

[obwan]

The Buffalo weather discussion looks interesting, but the fact they talk of East winds off lake ontario looks to kill anything in niagara region.

EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING WITHIN A REGION OF
STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE 60+
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS AND SREF SUPPORT CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN POPS THROUGH THE CATEGORICAL
RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE VERY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS RELATIVELY TAME AT A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN MOST PLACES. SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR
ZERO WITHIN THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE AND LIFT...WITH IMPRESSIVE
200-500 J/KG WORTH OF ELEVATED CAPE DEPICTED (NAM).

MORE IMPORTANTLY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS THE STRENGTH OF THE OVERALL
DYNAMICS OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THE MERE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITHIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CAN SET THE STAGE FOR A WINTER TYPE
DERECHO...AND WITH THIS AIRMASS BEING FORECAST TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE
ALOFT...THIS COULD PROVE TO BE A TROUBLING SCENARIO. A LOCAL STUDY
AT KBUF HAS SHOWN THAT WINTER DERECHO EVENTS FOR OUR AREA TYPICALLY
SHARE THE FOLLOWING CHARACTERISTICS...ARE STRONGLY FORCED...FEATURE
`LONG` HODOGRAPHS...MEAN 0-5 KM SHEAR OF 15-25M/S...SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR ABV 5KM (>15 M/S FROM 5-10 KM)...AND HAVE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (AVG 11 G/KG). WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE CHC FOR STORMS
AND WILL ALSO ADD ENHANCED WORDING TO PACKAGE BY MENTIONING GUSTY
WINDS. MAY LOCALLY BOOST RAIN AMOUNTS CLOSER TO A HALF INCH IN A FEW
SPOTS.

and detroit

EASTWARD EXPANDING REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS NOW BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG/LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR CARVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH THE CRASHING HEIGHT FIELD PROMOTING STRONG SFC
CYCLOGENESIS AS THIS SYSTEM THEN TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. COLUMN WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN LOCALLY ON
FRIDAY AS A NARROW WING OF STRONGER SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WORKS THROUGH. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL 20Z-03Z LATE FRIDAY ANCHORED ON AN EXPANDING THETA-E/MOISTURE
GRADIENT AND FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS. POTENTIAL
DOES EXIST FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH TO CUT
INTO THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT THE OVERALL SETUP
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGH POPS DURING THIS TIME. SFC BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCKED SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL ASCENT/LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST TO PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER
THROUGH THIS TIME. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL LARGELY REMAIN
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES...BUT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHERN
MIDLAND/BAY COUNTIES DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT SHOULD SOME HIGHER INTENSITY
BURSTS EVOLVE THEN THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF
THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AXIS

[DarkSky]

BOOOOOO! No more tstorm's forecasted. Text still has mention of it, but not as much likelyhood I'm guessing.

[Storm Chaser]

things are looking good. and thanks obwan for that awesome KBUF text. The mention of a derecho was sweet.

[benjaminblizzard]

Excited to see what happens today!