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  #1  
Old 01-29-2011, 03:29 PM
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Default groundhog day (forecasted storm of Feb.1st/2nd)

Looks like we could get some snow and no rain this time. However, it may pass too far to our south. I like how the guys at the Buffalo NWS are bored with the weather this winter. The people in Northern Indiana and Ohio are already talking Blizzard on this storm as its packing strong winds as well.

THEN...AFTER TWO MONTHS OF NOTHING BUT NEAR CONSTANT NICKEL AND DIME
LAKE SNOWS...WE HAVE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS WE START THE NEW
MONTH...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TWO THREATS FOR APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL. THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN ONE FOR WED...BUT WE ALSO HAVE A
MORE SUBTLE THREAT FOR TUES MORNING NOW AS WELL.

BAROCLINICITY WILL STRENGTHEN AS 850 MB TEMP ISOTHERMS TIGHTEN UP MON
NT INTO WED...AND A STRONG JET WILL STREAK ACROSS PA ON TUESDAY...
PLACING OUR AREA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW
LATE MON NT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUES. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH
WITH A GOOD 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR CWA...WHILE GFS AND
ECMWF MAX IT OUT ALONG NY-PA BORDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL INCREASE
POPS DRASTICALLY FROM 10 TO 60 FROM ABOUT 10Z-18Z TUES AND WE
COULD SEE A SOLID 1-3/2-4 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...LESSER CHC AND
LOWER AMTS E OF LK ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE RACES OFF TO NEW ENG TUES
AFTERNOON AND WE GET INTO A LULL LATER TUES AND MUCH OF TUES NT
BEFORE THE REAL ACTION BEGINS...

MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A MAJOR STORM LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUES TO NEAR CINCI BY EARLY WED. EVENTUALLY
THIS SYSTEM TRANSFERS TO THE COAST...BUT BOTH GFS AND EC DELAY THIS
PROCESS AND KEEP THE "PRIMARY" LOW THE MAIN PLAYER UP INTO EASTERN
OHIO...WITH ITS POTENT JET STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A SLUG OF 0.5 TO 1
INCH QPF UP ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NY FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 18Z WED. EC
HAS BEEN ON THE HEAVIER SIDE WITH A STRIP OVER VERY HEAVY
QPF...1-1.5 INCH...FROM CHI TO DET TO YYZ AND BUF...BUT GFS LOOK
MORE REALISTIC WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY WARM ADVECTION SNOW WED
MORNING...THEN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT AS A DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
INTO ONTARIO WHILE COASTAL GETS GOING LATER WED AND WED EVE...THEN
SOME WRAPAROUND SWINGS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA WED NT.

THIS IS STILL NOT ETCHED IN STONE AS 12Z GEM KEEP BULK OF SNOW SOUTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MAX PRECIP NEAR NY-PA BORDER (AN INCH) BUT A
SOLID 0.5 TO SOUTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
WARMER MODEL...BUT EVEN THIS IS A BIT COLDER THAN LAST RUN...WITH
850 MB ZERO ISOTHERM JUST TOUCHING OUR SRN TIER FOR AWHILE WED SO A
LITTLE SLEET COULDNT BE RULED OUT.
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  #2  
Old 01-30-2011, 07:47 AM
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Default Re: groundhog day

here's what their saying in detroit today

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK AS IF SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE PLACED WITHIN A
STRONG AREA OF DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN BETWEEN
850-700MB LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LAYER TO EVEN EXPAND DOWN TO 925 MB. THE ADDITION
OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND VERY STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL
PROVIDE DEEP LAYER LIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW
AT LEAST UP THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (POSSIBLY WEAKENING
IN INTENSITY AS WE LOSE JET SUPPORT)...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AT FIRST GLANCE...PW VALUES ONLY TOPPING
OUT AT 0.5 INCHES WOULD SUGGEST MODEL QPF AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF ONE
INCH ARE OVERDONE. HOWEVER...FURTHER ANALYSIS USING CROSS-SECTIONS
AND TIME-HEIGHTS SHOWS MOISTURE MAY BE CENTERED IN AN AREA OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHERE IT WILL REACH ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL. GFS/NAM SHOW
THE HIGHEST VALUES OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY (NOW UP TO 4 G/KG) CENTERED
WITHIN AND JUST ABOVE THE STRONG FGEN LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST
LIFT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WITHIN AND JUST BELOW STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES...AND ALSO LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
WITH THIS HIGH OF A DEGREE OF MOISTURE QUALITY...WENT WITH A GENERAL
8 TO 12 INCH ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS CONSERVATIVE GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT
AND HPC FORECAST WHICH HAVE TOTALS BETWEEN 18-24 INCHES. NORMALLY
NOT COMFORTABLE WITH A WATCH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT GIVEN
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND COORDINATION WITH HPC AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WE FELT THIS EVENT WAS WORTHY. IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A STRONG CORE OF NORTHEAST WINDS (AS HIGH
AS 50-60 KNOTS) FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB LOOKS TO CENTER
ITSELF OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
NOT 100 PERCENT CONFIDENT WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 35 MPH MIXING DOWN
DESPITE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DRAG. IF WINDY CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...IT WILL CREATE ADDITION PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING
SNOW...LOW VISIBILITIES...AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO. THIS STORM
CERTAINLY BEARS VERY CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND ADJUSTMENT TO SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
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Old 01-30-2011, 12:15 PM
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Default Re: groundhog day

WOW 18-24 inches on one model. I think that is a little high but i could deffenitley see 25-30cm for us looking at the GFS
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Old 01-30-2011, 12:57 PM
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Default Re: groundhog day

I have my discussion up on my site now http://www.southernontarioweather.ca...r-outlooks.php
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/and...-wednesday.asp
Also a snow squall could form off lake ontario monday night into tuesday morning bringing mabye 5-10cm to Oakville Hamilton Niagara before the main storm by about 12-18 hours

Last edited by davefootball123; 01-30-2011 at 01:05 PM.
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Old 01-30-2011, 03:01 PM
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Default Re: groundhog day

Looks like majority of us will miss out on anything good. The track is still too far south for an epic snow event for southern Ontario. I feel EC's estimate of 20-30cm is a little too generous, especially for areas north of Lake Erie. 5-15cm looks most probable with the current track north of a line from south of Sarnia to London to Brantford to Grimsby.
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Old 02-02-2011, 11:56 AM
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Default Re: groundhog day

Quote:
Originally Posted by Derecho View Post
Looks like majority of us will miss out on anything good. The track is still too far south for an epic snow event for southern Ontario. I feel EC's estimate of 20-30cm is a little too generous, especially for areas north of Lake Erie. 5-15cm looks most probable with the current track north of a line from south of Sarnia to London to Brantford to Grimsby.
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Old 01-30-2011, 03:34 PM
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Default Re: groundhog day

I dont agree with that. The current GFS takes it through Central PA then through new york state as well as the euro. A good 20+ for hamilton and niagara. there is a posibility of 18 inches around fort wayne indiana
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Old 01-30-2011, 08:33 PM
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Default Re: groundhog day

20-30 cm is too conservative, for SW Ontario..London, Sarnia, Windsor will be getting 40-50 cm with widespread blowing snow
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Old 01-30-2011, 10:27 PM
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Default Re: groundhog day

Quote:
Originally Posted by davefootball123 View Post
I dont agree with that. The current GFS takes it through Central PA then through new york state as well as the euro. A good 20+ for hamilton and niagara. there is a posibility of 18 inches around fort wayne indiana
Fort Wayne, Indiana a good distance from anywhere in southern Ontario. A one foot maximum is most likely in extreme southwest Ontario as indicated by NWS DTX and most weather models. The farther northeast you go, forecast accumulations become less and less as the precip shield thins out.

Also, NWS BUF's mention of 1-2 feet of snow is mainly for areas that are less than or equal to the latitude of southwest Ontario and areas south of London.

I'm still maintaining my opinion of general snowfall amounts of 2-6" for areas north of London, with locally higher amounts up to 8". I am playing it conservative this time around. Especially so since the latest model runs have either underperformed, overperformed, and had major shifts in the track of this upcoming low.
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Last edited by Derecho; 01-30-2011 at 10:29 PM.
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Old 01-30-2011, 11:12 PM
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Default Re: groundhog day

this is right across the river from me

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...5&lon=-82.5394

Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 23. North northeast wind between 10 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tuesday Night: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Blustery, with a northeast wind between 17 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow and widespread blowing snow. High near 20. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Widespread blowing snow. Cloudy during the early evening, then becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 6.

9 - 15 inches = almost 23 centimetres - 38.1 centimetres...the question is, do i take NWS word for it over EC?...NWS is always more accurate than EC, I never pay attention to EC forcasts because they're not that good of an organization...no one in the world imo are better than the americans at predicting weather

EC will always downplay an event until the last second
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