December 26-27 Winter Storm

[harrisale]

Wow! As of posting, this system is starting to look like it has real potential for Southern Ontario to get dumped on!

Whether or not to believe this map 3 days out is up for debate. But I'm excited regardless at the potential for our best winter storm in a while here.

[davefootball123]

0Z NAM was out to lunch lol. Models have come into better agreement about the SE shift and coastal low transfer. Probably around 10-20cm for most areas in the Golden Horseshoe. Maybe a bit less in Toronto. 25cm maybe even a bit more in localized areas in Niagara. Still a lot of uncertainty. A continued SE shift would give us far less snow. Will be interesting to watch develop, thats for sure.

[harrisale]

Very true, posted that far too early! Southeast shift seems to be the new consensus, should still get a decent storm, just not the jackpot this time.

Updated clown map:

[DarkSky]

I just heard this on the radio! They said something about 25cm late Boxing Day. From the updated map above it looks like St. Catharines will get about 10cm. Can't wait to try out the 4x4 on my new truck! (well, it's an '07 but new to me!)

I had an '05 GMC Envoy but got 2WD (*rear* wheel drive, which is terrible when stuck) and in October got an '07 Chevy Avalanche LTZ: 2WD / AWD / 4HI / 4LO , and haven't had an chance to run it in anything but 2WD so far

[davefootball123]

Models keep shifting further south, most snow will probably be 15-20 CM in far eastern Niagara.

[DarkSky]

Latest update from EC:

844
WOCN11 CWTO 260013
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 7:13 PM EST TUESDAY 25 DECEMBER 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
CITY OF TORONTO
WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
SARNIA - LAMBTON
ELGIN
LONDON - MIDDLESEX
SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
OXFORD - BRANT
NIAGARA
CITY OF HAMILTON
HALTON - PEEL
YORK - DURHAM
HURON - PERTH
WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
CITY OF OTTAWA
GATINEAU
PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE.

SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER ARRIVING ON BOXING DAY AND
PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A CENTRE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING OVER LOUISIANA IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LARGE SNOW AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORM. APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ONTARIO, ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED IN NEW
YORK STATE AND OHIO WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND
WILL IMPACT TRAVELLERS DRIVING SOUTH OVER THE HOLIDAYS.

PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SNOW WILL START OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD TO REACH
EASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT AREAS FROM WINDSOR TO NIAGARA AND
HAMILTON, AS WELL AS ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WITH 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 CM. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNT APPROACHING 15 CM APPEARS MORE LIKELY IN NIAGARA. IN FACT, A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NIAGARA AREA. IT MAY BE
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IF THE WARNING CRITERIA OF 15 CM
IN 12 HOURS IS EXCEEDED AND COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW.

FURTHER NORTH FROM SARNIA TO TORONTO TO OTTAWA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
PROBABLY BE IN THE 5 TO LOCALLY 10 CM RANGE. THE REASON WHY MORE SNOW
IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS SWATH IS THE SHORTER DURATION OF SNOW ON THE
OUTER FRINGE OF THE SNOW AREA.

IMPACTS MAY BE SIGNIFICANT FOR TRAVELLERS. IT IS A WIDESPREAD EVENT
AND THE REGION HAS NOT EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWY EVENT FOR SOME
TIME. THE FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TO 50 OR 60 KM/H
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE NIAGARA REGION WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHEST. ALSO, HOLIDAY RUSH HOUR THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC SINCE MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE FALLEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AS WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED OR EXTENDED.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT
CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA

END/AGA

[DarkSky]

St. Catharines - Grimsby - Northern Niagara Region
 7:16 AM EST Wednesday 26 December 2012
 Winter storm warning for  
St. Catharines - Grimsby - Northern Niagara Region continued

    Snow and blowing snow beginning over the Niagara Peninsula this afternoon and over Eastern Ontario this evening.

 An intensifying winter storm centred over Tennessee this morning will  track well south of the Lower Great Lakes today. It will be accompanied  by a large area of snow.

Over the Niagara and Dunnville areas  snow will begin this afternoon. Snow will fall heavy at times this  evening into the overnight hours before tapering off Thursday morning.  Total snowfall amounts are expected to be in the 15 to 20 cm range. The  falling snow combined with northeast winds gusting to 60 or even 70 km/h  will create considerable blowing snow with reduced visibilities less  than 800 metres at times.

Over Eastern Ontario snow will begin  this evening. Snow will fall heavy at times overnight into Thursday  morning before tapering off Thursday afternoon. Total snowfall amounts  are expected to be near 15 cm. The falling snow combined with northeast  winds gusting to 50 km/h will create blowing snow with reduced  visibilities less than 800 metres at times.

Travellers should allow considerable extra time and exercise caution if required to drive later today, tonight and Thursday.

[DarkSky]

The snow has started! I just drove back from my gf's on the other side of town and the roads are VERY icy. Only just a dusting of snow on the roads, but underneath the initial snow froze to ice it seems, so it's slick ice roads with snow on top.. But the winds are pretty good and snowfall is really starting to come down now.

[DarkSky]

The latest warning from EC:

345 
 WWCN11 CWTO 270255
 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
 ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
 AT 9:55 PM EST WEDNESDAY 26 DECEMBER 2012.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR:
 =NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
       SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
       DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
       NIAGARA
       KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
       BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
       CORNWALL - MORRISBURG.

      SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
 ==DISCUSSION==
 THE INTENSE WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER MARYLAND AND APPROACHING
 THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
 AREA OF SNOW WHICH EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

OVER THE HAMILTON, NIAGARA, SIMCOE-DUNNVILLE AREAS SNOW AT TIMES
 HEAVY HAS SETTLED IN.  IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
 BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING.  TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
 EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 CM RANGE WITH LOCAL 25 POSSIBLE.
 THE FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 60 OR
 70 KM/H WILL CREATE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED
 VISIBILITIES FREQUENTLY LESS THAN 500 METRES.

OVER EASTERN ONTARIO SNOW WILL BEGIN LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
 SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
 TAPERING OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
 TO BE 15 TO LOCALLY 20 CM.  THE FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST
 WINDS GUSTING TO 50 KM/H WILL CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED
 VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 500 METRES AT TIMES.

THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY
 SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.  TRAVELLERS SHOULD ALLOW CONSIDERABLE EXTRA
 TIME AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF REQUIRED TO DRIVE LATER TODAY, TONIGHT
 AND THURSDAY.

REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/OSPC

[DarkSky]

Snowfall summaries:

761 
 AWCN11 CWTO 271538
 UPDATED WEATHER SUMMARY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
 NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
 AT 10:38 AM EST THURSDAY 27 DECEMBER 2012.

-------------------------------------------------------------
 ==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==

A MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT BEGAN WEDNESDAY AFFECTED MOST OF SOUTHERN
 ONTARIO WITH SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REPORTED ACROSS MANY AREAS.
 FOR SOME REGIONS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
 ONTARIO, IT WAS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON.

THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO BUT WILL
 CONTINUE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO UNTIL LATER TODAY, SO THEIR NUMBERS
 ARE NOT FINAL. THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE AS OF 10
 AM TODAY UNLESS NOTED.

-------------------------------------------------------------
 LOCATION                  SNOW AMOUNT (CM)

WINDSOR AIRPORT           15
 LONDON AIRPORT             8    (ESTIMATED DUE DRIFTING SNOW)
 TILLSONBURG               17
 DELHI                     24    (WEATHER SPOTTER)
 PORT COLBORNE             20-25 (WEATHER SPOTTER)
 WELLAND                   15    (WEATHER SPOTTER) AS OF MIDNIGHT
 ST CATHARINES             15    (WEATHER SPOTTER)
  (ON THE ESCARPMENT)
 GRIMSBY                   17    (WEATHER SPOTTER)
 BURLINGTON                15    (WEATHER SPOTTER) AS OF MIDNIGHT
 HAMILTON AIRPORT          17
 WATERLOO                  13
 TORONTO PEARSON AIRPORT   10
 TORONTO ETOBICOKE         13
 TORONTO DOWNSVIEW         14
 TORONTO EAST YORK         16
 TORONTO BEACHES           15
 TORONTO DOWNTOWN          15
 BUTTONVILLE AIRPORT       10
 BARRIE                    14
 SHANTY BAY                13
 ORILLIA                   13    (WEATHER SPOTTER)
 COLDWATER                 15    (WEATHER SPOTTER)
 BALACLAVA                 15
 THORNBURY                 25
 TRENTON AIRPORT           26
 KINGSTON AIRPORT          30    (ESTIMATED DUE DRIFITNG SNOW)
 POINT PETRE               21
 BROCKVILLE                33
 CORNWALL                  15-20 (WEATHER SPOTTER)
 KEMPTVILLE                19
 BECKWITH                  15
 OTTAWA DOWNTOWN           12
 OTTAWA AIRPORT            10
 OTTAWA SOUTH              24    (WEATHER SPOTTER)
 GATINEAU AIRPORT           9

THIS WEATHER SUMMARY CONTAINS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION AND MAY NOT
 CONSTITUTE AN OFFICIAL OR FINAL REPORT.

END/OSPC