Storm Threat. May 10th-11th ish

[davefootball123]

Was just taking a look at the GFS. The latest GFS brings a really good chance of severe storms into our are on the **latest run**. the latest run indicates MLCAPE valus upwards of 2000j/kg with lifted indices of -6 or less. Surface temps approaching or exceeding the 80f mark. With dewpoints into the 60's. 0-6km bulk shear values of around 50kts may be in place We will have to see becaues alot can change in 9 days just wanted to put this out there . Will have to see if 18z run stays with this.(just coming out now) If it does I will make another post in this thread

[davefootball123]

Ok....18z run is deffenitley less impressive. But still present. Will have to see...

[Anspray]

Originally Posted by davefootball123

Was just taking a look at the GFS. The latest GFS brings a really good chance of severe storms into our are on the **latest run**. the latest run indicates MLCAPE valus upwards of 2000j/kg with lifted indices of -6 or less. Surface temps approaching or exceeding the 80f mark. With dewpoints into the 60's. 0-6km bulk shear values of around 50kts may be in place We will have to see becaues alot can change in 9 days just wanted to put this out there . Will have to see if 18z run stays with this.(just coming out now) If it does I will make another post in this thread

Where do you get those maps?

[davefootball123]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Click GFS than pick the desired product. That product is MLCAPE>(Convective Available Potential Energy)

[davefootball123]

Storm Threat still there. Staying pretty consistent on the latest couple of runs

[davefootball123]

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THEY DO AGREE THAT
BEGINNING ON SUN/D6...A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WRN STATES...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS WOULD PORTEND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 3-4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE DEVELOPING
FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON MON/D7 INTO
TUE/D8 AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO D9. IF TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE
PERSISTS...SEVERE RISK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN
SUBSEQUENT D4-8 OUTLOOKS.

..JEWELL.. 05/03/2011
From the SPC

[Anspray]

I see what your saying now, thanks for the link.

[davefootball123]

Our risk has really gotten less on the latest runs. Seems southwestern ontario still has a chance. But it deffenitley isnt looking as good. Who knows it could change. Keep on the bright side lol. There are still other good parameters favourable . Just not excessive instability that was forecast on previous models. Still some instability with CAPE near 1000j/kg. Shear and helecity parameters as well as other dynamics are still supportive of severe storms. Just not the instablility that was indicated earlier. Then again i was suprised to see 3500j/kg CAPE in southwestern ontario...especially for early May. If Ontario is gonna get CAPE that high it would be in the dead of summer. Anyway, will have to see what 18z run brings today. Will report back later

[obwan]

from buffalo;

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. WE WILL BE ON ITS NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY...WHICH IS OFTEN THE REGION TO WATCH FOR ANY MCS TYPE
ACTION...BUT IT WILL INITIALLY BE DRY FOR MON AND TUES AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME FINE
MAY WX WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR 70 BY TUES
AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 8C. THE FIRST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE
WED IF WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER...BUT SFC HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST SHOULD
HOLD ONE MORE DAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS BY THURS.
WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MAXES REACHING INTO THE L70S BY MIDWEEK

[davefootball123]

I was just gonna post this. Our Severe risk appears to be a little later. More Wednesday now. Probably Late afternoon to late Wedensday. The low appears to wait a little to get out this way on the latest runs.