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Old 01-30-2011, 07:47 AM
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obwan obwan is offline
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Default Re: groundhog day

here's what their saying in detroit today

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK AS IF SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE PLACED WITHIN A
STRONG AREA OF DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN BETWEEN
850-700MB LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LAYER TO EVEN EXPAND DOWN TO 925 MB. THE ADDITION
OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND VERY STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL
PROVIDE DEEP LAYER LIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW
AT LEAST UP THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (POSSIBLY WEAKENING
IN INTENSITY AS WE LOSE JET SUPPORT)...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AT FIRST GLANCE...PW VALUES ONLY TOPPING
OUT AT 0.5 INCHES WOULD SUGGEST MODEL QPF AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF ONE
INCH ARE OVERDONE. HOWEVER...FURTHER ANALYSIS USING CROSS-SECTIONS
AND TIME-HEIGHTS SHOWS MOISTURE MAY BE CENTERED IN AN AREA OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHERE IT WILL REACH ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL. GFS/NAM SHOW
THE HIGHEST VALUES OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY (NOW UP TO 4 G/KG) CENTERED
WITHIN AND JUST ABOVE THE STRONG FGEN LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST
LIFT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WITHIN AND JUST BELOW STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES...AND ALSO LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
WITH THIS HIGH OF A DEGREE OF MOISTURE QUALITY...WENT WITH A GENERAL
8 TO 12 INCH ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS CONSERVATIVE GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT
AND HPC FORECAST WHICH HAVE TOTALS BETWEEN 18-24 INCHES. NORMALLY
NOT COMFORTABLE WITH A WATCH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT GIVEN
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND COORDINATION WITH HPC AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WE FELT THIS EVENT WAS WORTHY. IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A STRONG CORE OF NORTHEAST WINDS (AS HIGH
AS 50-60 KNOTS) FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB LOOKS TO CENTER
ITSELF OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
NOT 100 PERCENT CONFIDENT WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 35 MPH MIXING DOWN
DESPITE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DRAG. IF WINDY CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...IT WILL CREATE ADDITION PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING
SNOW...LOW VISIBILITIES...AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO. THIS STORM
CERTAINLY BEARS VERY CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND ADJUSTMENT TO SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
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