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-   -   groundhog day (forecasted storm of Feb.1st/2nd) (http://www.ontariostorms.com/showthread.php?t=566)

Derecho 01-30-2011 10:27 PM

Re: groundhog day
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by davefootball123 (Post 2549)
I dont agree with that. The current GFS takes it through Central PA then through new york state as well as the euro. A good 20+ for hamilton and niagara. there is a posibility of 18 inches around fort wayne indiana

Fort Wayne, Indiana a good distance from anywhere in southern Ontario. A one foot maximum is most likely in extreme southwest Ontario as indicated by NWS DTX and most weather models. The farther northeast you go, forecast accumulations become less and less as the precip shield thins out.

Also, NWS BUF's mention of 1-2 feet of snow is mainly for areas that are less than or equal to the latitude of southwest Ontario and areas south of London.

I'm still maintaining my opinion of general snowfall amounts of 2-6" for areas north of London, with locally higher amounts up to 8". I am playing it conservative this time around. Especially so since the latest model runs have either underperformed, overperformed, and had major shifts in the track of this upcoming low.

ontariolightning 01-30-2011 11:12 PM

Re: groundhog day
 
this is right across the river from me

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...5&lon=-82.5394

Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 23. North northeast wind between 10 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tuesday Night: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Blustery, with a northeast wind between 17 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow and widespread blowing snow. High near 20. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Widespread blowing snow. Cloudy during the early evening, then becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 6.

9 - 15 inches = almost 23 centimetres - 38.1 centimetres...the question is, do i take NWS word for it over EC?...NWS is always more accurate than EC, I never pay attention to EC forcasts because they're not that good of an organization...no one in the world imo are better than the americans at predicting weather

EC will always downplay an event until the last second

davefootball123 01-30-2011 11:23 PM

Re: groundhog day
 
HTML Code:

9 - 15 inches = almost 23 centimetres - 38.1 centimetres...the question is, do i take NWS word for it over EC?...NWS is always more accurate than EC, I never pay attention to EC forcasts because they're not that good of an organization...no one in the world imo are better than the americans at predicting weather

EC will always downplay an event until the last second

LOL. I wonder why they have such a good weather service. HMMM all the severe weather mabye lol

ontariolightning 01-30-2011 11:30 PM

Re: groundhog day
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by davefootball123 (Post 2556)
HTML Code:

9 - 15 inches = almost 23 centimetres - 38.1 centimetres...the question is, do i take NWS word for it over EC?...NWS is always more accurate than EC, I never pay attention to EC forcasts because they're not that good of an organization...no one in the world imo are better than the americans at predicting weather

EC will always downplay an event until the last second

LOL. I wonder why they have such a good weather service. HMMM all the severe weather mabye lol

better equipment 'cause they're more funded would be my guess...i've had tornadic storms right in my backyard without so much as warnings or a mention by EC..I sent them the pictures after and not once have they sent me an email back
so yeah I have no confidence in environment canada

ontariolightning 01-30-2011 11:36 PM

Re: groundhog day
 
have you been following the thread on accuweather?

http://forums.accuweather.com/index....=25176&st=2940

Derecho 01-31-2011 01:09 AM

Re: groundhog day
 
The latest SREF run is looking... well... amazing for southern Ontario. We're talking decent snowfall totals of nearly 30cm for many areas. Yikes... not buying it.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sre...N12HR_f069.gif

Derecho 01-31-2011 09:58 AM

Re: groundhog day
 
K, I'm starting to get a little excited now.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sre...N12HR_f057.gif

Derecho 01-31-2011 10:18 AM

Re: groundhog day
 
Code:

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:47 AM EST MONDAY 31 JANUARY 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF TORONTO
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
=NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= NIAGARA
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
=NEW= HALTON - PEEL
=NEW= YORK - DURHAM
=NEW= HURON - PERTH
=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
=NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
=NEW= KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD.

    ..MAJOR WINTER SNOWSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..

    THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
    WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE REGIONS.  MONITOR WEATHER
    CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND WILL TRACK TOWARDS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER THE HEAVIER SNOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
20 TO 30 CM ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION STRONG AND GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE SNOW.
THIS WILL CAUSE LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW.  THE EAST
WINDS WILL ALSO GENERATE LOCAL SNOW SQUALLS OFF LAKE ONTARIO IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA WHICH WILL GIVE ENHANCED SNOW AMOUNTS
TO REGIONS NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON FOR THE
TORONTO AREA, AND THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF THE SEASON FOR MANY
REGIONS OUTSIDE THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS.  THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAKING FOR EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.  THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
CHANGE PLANS ACCORDINGLY TO AVOID TRAVEL DURING THE STORM.
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE NEAR-PARALYZING CONDITIONS.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA CONTINUES TO MONITOR THIS DANGEROUS WINTER STORM
AND WILL ISSUE FURTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS NECESSARY.


DarkSky 01-31-2011 12:06 PM

Re: groundhog day (forecasted storm of Feb.1st/2nd)
 
According to the map, hardest hit areas look to be Niagara and Sarnia areas. :( Unfortunately I don't look forward to winter storms as I do summer ones. 'Means I have to shovel snow for hours on end, wake up early to shovel and clear snow off truck, drive to work in mess of roads, etc.. 'Wishing I'd gone with the 4x4 model :(

davefootball123 01-31-2011 12:16 PM

Re: groundhog day (forecasted storm of Feb.1st/2nd)
 
Just Checked latest GFS and SREF models. Looking great for almost everyone in southern ontario. :D


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