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Smokin Joe
08-05-2011, 08:14 AM
From SPC Day 3

...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AREA...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM WI NWD INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MI EARLY SUNDAY. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE OH VALLEY AS DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
COMMENCES. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN
ZONE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OH VALLEY AREA WHERE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO EARLY
EVENING.

Derecho
08-06-2011, 01:13 PM
SON/SWON have been dropped from the SLGT and a large part of the 5% risk on the new day 2.


lol

Raedwulf
08-06-2011, 02:23 PM
This year has been wickedly disappointing. At the rate we are going at..I would not be surprised if we see no outbreak at all in our areas by seasons end. The trend has remained the same all season. It's riding a hump into the praries and then just knicking extreme south western ontario 'at the best of times'.

Without exaggeration. This is by a fair amount, the slowest storm season I have ever seen.

Derecho
08-06-2011, 03:25 PM
This year has been wickedly disappointing. At the rate we are going at..I would not be surprised if we see no outbreak at all in our areas by seasons end. The trend has remained the same all season. It's riding a hump into the praries and then just knicking extreme south western ontario 'at the best of times'.

Without exaggeration. This is by a fair amount, the slowest storm season I have ever seen.

What about 2010? Aside from the Essex County and Midland tornadoes, the year was a dud. But hey, it ended with a HIGH risk and surrounding MDT for a large part of the Great Lakes at the end of October... though was just another bust in the jar!

Historically we can see major tornado and severe weather outbreaks into late November. There have even been tornadoes in SWON in mid December. So we have a while yet to go. But, I have no idea what seasonal patterns produce those kind of outbreaks.

And yeah, it's not just SON this year, it's all across the USA. Aside from a few historical outbreaks in April and parts of May, the storm season has been spoiled by killer capping and death ridge high pressures.

DarkSky
08-06-2011, 03:39 PM
EC's forecats have been saying rain and thunderstorms for St. Catharines the last couple days (and for the next couple days as well) but we've had sunny skies with some cloud the whole time.

I think this summer has been teasing meteorologists all over North America with storm and rain, only to never develop. Very very dry year.

davefootball123
08-06-2011, 04:28 PM
EC's forecats have been saying rain and thunderstorms for St. Catharines the last couple days (and for the next couple days as well) but we've had sunny skies with some cloud the whole time.

I think this summer has been teasing meteorologists all over North America with storm and rain, only to never develop. Very very dry year.

We just got over an inch of rain with a storm that just passed through. Since late july around the 24th or so it hasent been very dry. Its been quite we as a matter of fact

SlideShowBob
08-07-2011, 11:10 AM
Today is the anniversary of the Woodstock Tornado. It's also my son's 4th birthday. And yes, he was born during a thunderstorm (lucky guy).
I don't know about the magical bubble that is protecting Burlington from storms, but so far it's been a bust around here...hopefully something will happen today...but I'm not holding my breath...

obwan
08-07-2011, 12:35 PM
water spouts have been sighted over lake ontario. Things look to be clearing over the lake for now but for those capable of getting there, the chance to see one is quite rare.

davefootball123
08-07-2011, 12:41 PM
Waterspouts of the lake? Where abouts?

obwan
08-07-2011, 12:48 PM
Between grimsby and the niagara river around lunch time, NWS buffalo had a warning for american waters as spouts had been sighted

obwan
08-07-2011, 12:53 PM
Wet day in huntsville. Those storms have been backbuilding all day in that area, they must be having some flooding.

obwan
08-07-2011, 03:05 PM
I thnk this may be the same storm which spawned the water spouts earlier, now rejuvenated over land. Look at the detail they go into explaning the warning and precautions. EC take notes.

AT 309 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CLYDE...OR
8 MILES WEST OF MONTEZUMA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SAVANNAH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

Itchy
08-07-2011, 03:33 PM
watching a cell approach me to my west, Mark Robinson intercepting it

Derecho
08-07-2011, 04:36 PM
watching a cell approach me to my west, Mark Robinson intercepting it

Been watching him speed down the 401 this afternoon to intercept these thundershowers. You know you're desperate when... :whistling:

Derecho
08-07-2011, 05:52 PM
Well this is interesting...


SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 6:07 PM EDT SUNDAY 7 AUGUST 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= RODNEY - SHEDDEN - WESTERN ELGIN COUNTY
=NEW= ST. THOMAS - AYLMER - EASTERN ELGIN COUNTY.

AT 6:00 PM EDT RADAR SHOW A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT 20 KM WEST OF ST THOMAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ABOUT 60 KM/H.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY PRODUCING TORNADOES ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING IN THE AREA. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

TORNADO WATCH FOR:
=NEW= ELGIN.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES..MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED BULLETINS.

Itchy
08-07-2011, 05:57 PM
I got to that cell right around 6 but by then it looked like it was falling apart compared to when i was driving up what I was seeing. Had lots of lowerings on its southern side and a nice rain core with rain foot it was feeding from but the large complex of junk was right behind it and drowned it out I think ... Some pics soon.

Derecho
08-07-2011, 06:08 PM
Once again Emergency Management Ontario is late to the party! The red alert came 30 minutes late and the storms have already moved over the lake!!

I don't know why anyone even tries. And look, Elgin County appears thrice! Elgin, western Elgin County, eastern Elgin County! I think the people who are pushing the button should at least have geo-political knowledge before they go making things up.


THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO HAS ISSUED A "RED ALERT" DUE TO A TORNADO WARNING IN SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.


Emergency Situation: Environment Canada has issued a Tornado Warning in an area described as ELGIN, RODNEY, SHEDDEN, WESTERN ELGIN COUNTY,ST. THOMAS, AYLMER and EASTERN ELGIN COUNTY.

Recommended Actions: Emergency Management Ontario recommends that persons in the area described above IMMEDIATELY shelter. Everyone in this area should immediately move indoors, and away from doors and windows, preferably into a basement area if that is possible. Do not pick up family members from schools, daycares and institutions such as hospitals and nursing homes. Plans are in place to protect them. People currently outside this area are advised not to enter this area until further notice. If it is safe to do so, pets and livestock should be removed quickly from outside. Do not call 911 for information about this emergency.

This Red Alert broadcast request will end at 1930 hrs, unless a further extension is requested.

Itchy
08-07-2011, 06:12 PM
sometimes with weather warnings I think the term better late then never just doesn't work in this case. I wish I was on the proper side of that cell. Wonder how robinson faired

Derecho
08-07-2011, 06:19 PM
sometimes with weather warnings I think the term better late then never just doesn't work in this case. I wish I was on the proper side of that cell. Wonder how robinson faired

The problem around here with warnings is the people issuing them make this stuff up as they go along and they apparently don't receive any criticism for their work as far as I can tell. They must have joe sixpack over at EMO manning the red alert station because there has yet to be a red alert even remotely relevant to an actual weather threat.

And why isn't Environment Canada telling EMO how it's done? Must be a rhetorical question.

So amazing to see how our big new emergency alert system is just... useless. They've had six months to work out the false and late alerts...

:whistling:

Timeline of events:
- Tornado warning issued at 606pm by Environment Canada.
- Red alert issued at 633pm by Emergency Management Ontario in effect until 730pm.
- Tornado warning ended at 639pm by Environment Canada.

lol

Itchy
08-07-2011, 06:26 PM
I swear I`m having a dejavu I once said almost the exact thing you did saying the person flipping the switched makes no decision himself on the matter and dark sky agreed and mentioned they probably don`t have the weather sense and are just following whats being given to them..... a terrible system really but affordable but not nearly at the dynamic level needed for effective weather warnings......


on a side note I noticed some more weather nuts from London on here, hope they saw some good stuff too.....
I would have seen more if I just sat on my balcony haha

Smokin Joe
08-07-2011, 06:39 PM
Lol ain't that the truth I chased some rain today!

Itchy
08-07-2011, 07:03 PM
Some radar grabs from today since none up..... First one shows the cell that caused the warnings early on when I was watching it from London

Itchy
08-07-2011, 08:49 PM
Looks like a slight chance for a round 2 at night