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obwan
07-28-2011, 10:51 PM
Who thinks july 29th will bring some action??? Could be some light shows tonight, things look to be picking up in michigan. Buffalo says there's a chance of severe weather but looks more likely south of lake erie. Our area looks favourable for training storms and heavy rain, up to two inches possible in persistant rains. Quite a way to end a drought.
At least were not not out west, they get the storms but the flooding this year has been crazy.

Derecho
07-29-2011, 03:10 AM
Just had a wicked lightning show in KW. The storm is moving towards Lake Erie now... but back southwest where the MCS has formed over Lower MI a severe thunderstorm watch is in place for SWON.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:22 AM EDT FRIDAY 29 JULY 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY
RAINFALL..MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED
BULLETINS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE THIS MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 90 KM/H.

obwan
07-29-2011, 07:06 AM
Derecho this sould be the strorm that clipped you last night, looking at the sattelite imagery puts the storm up your way earlier this morning.

AT 07Z A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF WNY THIS
MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DISPLAYS COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH A SUPER CELL ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO NEAR THE NORTHERN LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. WITH THE
COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND INCREASE LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS IT ALREADY IS EXHIBITING TORNADIC
SIGNATURES AND BOWING FEATURES.

davefootball123
07-29-2011, 08:42 AM
Was a pretty good lightning show with the first storm. Another storm around 5am, not as good though

Derecho
07-29-2011, 08:45 AM
Derecho this sould be the strorm that clipped you last night, looking at the sattelite imagery puts the storm up your way earlier this morning.

That was the one! I took a screen shot of the supercell as it was crossing Haldimand County. Strong rotation was evident on radar as well as a hook echo. In addition, very large hail markers up to 2.75" were being indicated. I wonder what happened beneath that storm! As soon as it approached the BUF CWA they issued a severe thunderstorm warning including that radar detected weak rotation and a tornado warning may be required.

The supercell had better radar presentation when it was over Haldimand County, so who knows, maybe there was a weak tornado, downburst or large hail somewhere near the Lake Erie shoreline.

http://i901.photobucket.com/albums/ac218/medusan/selkirk.png

davefootball123
07-29-2011, 09:07 AM
And i remember myself thinking. I wonder if it is producing a tornado. Well it may have lol

davefootball123
07-29-2011, 12:26 PM
I cannot see why Environment Canada wouldnt tornado warn that storm. There was not even a severe thunderstorm warning

Itchy
07-29-2011, 03:50 PM
sometimes coverage of weather at night is really bad at EC, that's a nice supercell for us.

I was watching the light show north of London at work last night and never thought something like that was lurking around

Had to happen at night haha :)

Finally getting some good rainfaill!!!!

obwan
07-29-2011, 05:14 PM
great outflow coming off lake ontario has produced a huge bow echo(although weak currently) to the south of the lake. the cloud structure from here is amazing, great cumulus and many layers to the clouds. If only i lived 40 miles further south.

As for this mornings storm, will have to wait and see if EC reports anything. Too bad they missed another one.

DarkSky
07-30-2011, 02:17 PM
Actually I'd rather have them miss the odd warning instead of sending out warnings when nothing develops. If they held back their warnings even to the point of missing some storms, but meaning their tornado warnings -> actual tornado percentage came really close, that would be great! Nobody heeds the warnings because 19 times out of 20 they're false. Hopefully the can start closing the gap. 'Need better technology of course, and spread out over a larger area, and more manpower spending more time looking at each cell. I think the reason there's so many false warnings is they just don't have the staff required to spend time really determining what each cell will do.

Derecho
07-31-2011, 02:14 AM
Actually I'd rather have them miss the odd warning instead of sending out warnings when nothing develops. If they held back their warnings even to the point of missing some storms, but meaning their tornado warnings -> actual tornado percentage came really close, that would be great! Nobody heeds the warnings because 19 times out of 20 they're false. Hopefully the can start closing the gap. 'Need better technology of course, and spread out over a larger area, and more manpower spending more time looking at each cell. I think the reason there's so many false warnings is they just don't have the staff required to spend time really determining what each cell will do.

For what it's worth, the tornado warning FARs (false alarm rates) for the NWS are around 87% per year. Public complacency regarding severe weather warnings in the US is so high that there are panels and important figures in the meteorological field asking the NWS to reduce the amount of tornado warnings they issue -- especially on brief weak spin ups like rope tornadoes or squall lines with embedded rotation that lasts 1 or 2 radar scans (5-10 minutes).