View Full Version : July 18th 2011 Storm Risk

07-17-2011, 10:08 PM
Seeing as no one has created a thread I thought I should create one. As many of you have seen SPC has placed most of Southern Ontario in a Slight Risk. I have done this on my convective outlook as well. Check www.southernontarioweather.ca for my full outlook. Severe storms are quite possible along and ahead of the coldfront tomorrow however there is still some uncertainty regarding the timing of the front and if possible convection overnight and tomorrow will affect afternoon storms. If the day pans out and the airmass destabializes we could be looking at some severe storms given the strong flow and forcing along the front and favourable shear. NW flow at 850mb and higher will also help damaging wind threat. PW values of at least 1.7 inches indicates heavy downpour threat with some storms as well. Convective mode will be linear segmants and multi cell clusters capable of producing damaging winds and to a lesser threat hail. I will post back tomorrow if anything changes and my site will have a more pin-point slight risk placed if required.

Smokin Joe
07-18-2011, 07:46 AM
not liking the cloud cover this morning.......need it to clear out soon or i'm thinking we're done for later......