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View Full Version : June 8 - active day for Southern & Eastern Ontario


fitzcalvin
06-08-2011, 10:03 AM
Pretty interesting day lining up for southern and eastern Ontario today. The latest NAM run for forecast time 5:00 pm today for my location here near Ottawa looks like this:

CAPE: ~3500 J/kg
Lifted index: -10
Cap: -150
Energy helicity: 9
Helicity: 300

Nasty-looking instability and lift, but doesn't look like there's going to be enough speed or directional shear to support rotation or super-big hail. My guess would be more along the lines of straight-line winds and moderate hail, along with some pretty spectacular looking skies. Get the cameras ready, but I'd be surprised to see a heckuva lot of rotation out of this unless the shear environment changes.

DarkSky
06-08-2011, 02:20 PM
Wow, that's GREAT lift and cape. Temps are showing 30C right now without the humidity.

fitzcalvin
06-08-2011, 02:39 PM
Just came in from outside (in Kanata) and it's unholy hot and humid. Latest run of NAM for 5:00 pm calls for a stronger cap than forecast earlier today, but CAPE remains impressive (3000 - 4000) and the lift seems to be holding. Be interesting to see if the arrival of the line later this afternoon is enough to pop the cork. If we'd had just a little bit more shear, I'd have expected to see Reed Timmer over here at some point today. :)

Derecho
06-08-2011, 02:54 PM
It's so hot I can barely move. I think I'm going to cab to work. It's 32C right now, but feels like 43C in Waterloo.

Also, convection firing over Michigan, Lake Huron, and Georgian Bay.

davefootball123
06-08-2011, 02:56 PM
Me anStorm chaser were biking looking for damage...Saw some but man was it hot. Speaking of damage in my backyard a huge part of a maple tree was sheard off and it flattend my neighbours shead took down an elictrical and teleophone like and almost crushed my car. Also a bunch of smaller branches in my yard with small branches littering my street and the street next to me.

DarkSky
06-08-2011, 04:47 PM
293 WWCN11 CWTO 081936
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:36 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 8 JUNE 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= COBOURG - COLBORNE - WESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY
=NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE WEST - EASTERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY
=NEW= STIRLING - TWEED - MADOC
=NEW= PLEVNA - SHARBOT LAKE - WESTERN LANARK COUNTY
LINDSAY - SOUTHERN KAWARTHA LAKES
PETERBOROUGH CITY - LAKEFIELD - SOUTHERN PETERBOROUGH COUNTY
APSLEY - WOODVIEW - NORTHERN PETERBOROUGH COUNTY
KALADAR - BANNOCKBURN - BON ECHO PARK.

FOR THE ABOVE REGIONS UNTIL 4.30 PM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THE AREA. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL UP TO 4 CM, WIND GUSTS TO 120 KM/H AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS UP TO 50 MM IN HALF AN HOUR.

REMEMBER THAT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION
UXBRIDGE - BEAVERTON - NORTHERN DURHAM REGION
DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
CITY OF OTTAWA
GATINEAU
PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY
RAINFALL..MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED
BULLETINS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS ENDED FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ENDED FOR:
NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION
UXBRIDGE - BEAVERTON - NORTHERN DURHAM REGION
FENELON FALLS - BALSAM LAKE PARK - NORTHERN KAWARTHA LAKES
BANCROFT - HASTINGS HIGHLANDS - DENBIGH.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 3 PM RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SCATTERED SEVERE AND NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST SOUTH OF LAKE SIMCOE TO VICINITY OF BANCROFT
AND NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LINE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT
60 KM/H. CONDITIONS AROUND AND AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FAVOURABLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST AND BECOME SEVERE
WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, WIND GUSTS TO 100 KM/H AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS UP TO 50 MM IN HALF AN HOUR.


REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/OSPC

Nagii
06-09-2011, 03:13 AM
I wonder how organized this incoming cell will remain :/