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Smokin Joe
05-27-2011, 07:51 AM
From current SPC Day 3

...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES...

STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT AS WELL AS
IN A PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NRN
PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES EAST OF STRONGER CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS RIDGE BUILDS WITH MULTICELLS THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

Derecho
05-28-2011, 01:47 PM
I'm down here on the Michigan border and I'm watching this one closely!


...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES...
THE PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING NWD SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS
MAY BE IN PROGRESS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COULD POSE A THREAT
FOR HAIL. WARM SECTOR SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY
MORNING ACTIVITY...AS RICHER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/
AND EML PLUME ADVECT NEWD DURING THE DAY. A SLOWLY BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN COOL SECTOR NORTH
OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONCERN
THAT A WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BEFORE THE WARMER EML PLUME ARRIVES. IF THIS OCCURS
0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUS THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK TO INCLUDE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS AS WELL AS A
SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS.

davefootball123
05-28-2011, 01:55 PM
Looks like i am on the edge of the Slight Risk. Hopefully...Also tuesday is something we really need to watch. Dynamics are good.

Smokin Joe
05-28-2011, 11:18 PM
I'm thinking of going out tomorrow if outlook stays good through morning so if anyone has any targets in mind or sees probability change for better or worse or is going out themselves post to this thread. I'll check back and if anything pops I'll post tomorrow what I'm seeing if I end up going....

davefootball123
05-29-2011, 12:21 AM
Go to the southwest and watch the radar.

obwan
05-29-2011, 07:47 AM
This afternoons outlook from SPC. In graphics things look good for some sevelopment but in their text they don't sound so confident.

here is the text
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN SD EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES

...MID MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN
MO/IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEING FORCED MAINLY BY WARM
ADVECTION NEAR A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MID LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF
40 KTS IS EXPECTED TO HELP STORMS MERGE INTO AN MCS. THIS SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS...NAM...AND
ECMWF. THIS POTENTIAL MCS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/VEERING PROFILES...FEEDING A MOIST AND STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD. INDICATIONS ARE A CONCENTRATED SWATCH OF
DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL INCLUDING THE
CHICAGO AREA...AND PROCEEDING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH STORM
MODE MAY DISRUPT SUPERCELL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL...AREAS OF ROTATION
MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT
SHOULD FURTHER HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP LOADING/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.



Day 1 this afternoons oulook, hail prob, tornado prob and wind prob

Smokin Joe
05-29-2011, 02:40 PM
On my way down

DarkSky
05-29-2011, 04:29 PM
999
ACCN10 CWTO 292022
FORECAST OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 4:22 PM EDT SUNDAY 29 MAY 2011.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 4.00 AM MONDAY.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECAST OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT..THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING IN SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM MICHIGAN. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 100
KM/H, LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 MM IN ONE
HOUR OR LESS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR
REGIONS CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING GIVING OTHER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO A FEW NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR REGIONS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO.

TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO. ELSEWHERE NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.


---------------------------------------------------------------------
A THUNDERSTORM IS DEFINED AS SEVERE IF IT PRODUCES ONE OR MORE OF THE
FOLLOWING:

- WIND GUSTS OF 90 KM/H OR GREATER.
- HAIL OF 2 CENTIMETRES IN DIAMETER OR GREATER.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 MILLIMETRES OR GREATER IN ONE HOUR OR LESS.
- A TORNADO.

NOTE: THIS FORECAST IS ISSUED TWICE DAILY FROM MAY 1 TO SEPTEMBER 30.

END/OSPC

DarkSky
05-29-2011, 05:11 PM
WWCN11 CWTO 292119
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 5:19 PM EDT SUNDAY 29 MAY 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - LEAMINGTON - ESSEX COUNTY
=NEW= CHATHAM-KENT - RONDEAU PARK
=NEW= SARNIA - PETROLIA - WESTERN LAMBTON COUNTY
=NEW= WATFORD - PINERY PARK - EASTERN LAMBTON COUNTY.

A LARGE COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING RAPIDLY
FROM THE WEST AT 90 KM/H WILL MOVE INTO REGIONS NEAR THE
MICHIGAN BORDER AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 KM/H,
LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 MM IN ONE HOUR OR
LESS. FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO HAVE BEEN REPORTED
WITH THESE STORMS IN MICHIGAN, HENCE THERE IS A RISK OF BRIEF
TORNADOES WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

TORNADO WATCH FOR:
WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
SARNIA - LAMBTON.

RISK OF TORNADOES THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE STORM
COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES..MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED BULLETINS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
ELGIN
LONDON - MIDDLESEX
SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
OXFORD - BRANT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED
BULLETINS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A LARGE COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGIONS THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 100 KM/H, LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 MM IN
ONE HOUR OR LESS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING.

REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/OSPC

Reffik
05-29-2011, 06:33 PM
So you're saying this was a BAD weekend to adopt a new, thunderstorm-untested dog?

(Well, I guess it meant I was staying up late anyways)

DarkSky
05-29-2011, 06:50 PM
So you're saying this was a BAD weekend to adopt a new, thunderstorm-untested dog?

(Well, I guess it meant I was staying up late anyways)

Every weekend's a good one for adopting a dog :)

My gf and I almost adopted one from the crew that comes up from Louisiana each year with dozens of dogs. Anyway, back to subject:

Anyone getting any storms yet? Nothing here in St. Catharines except for cloudy skies. Temps seem to have risen a bit, and humidity has gone up.

Big storms approaching Windsor area. Hopefully they'll maintain some kick throughout the evening and make for some good lightning-shooting photography :)

SlideShowBob
05-29-2011, 06:57 PM
Nothing in Burlington, yet. Hoping for some good lightning later on...

Reffik
05-29-2011, 08:16 PM
I was just out walking said new dog in Mississauga: At the start of the walk, I could see the sun through clouds to the West, but it got dark fast. Clouds were not terribly defined overhead and moving slowly. High humidity, no wind to speak of, not even a breeze.

Planes taking off from Pearson Airport were making left turns and heading south.

Slacker
05-29-2011, 09:17 PM
Looking out at Lake Erie from Amherstburg.

http://www.tunasandwich.net/images/oss/IMG_4199.jpg

SlideShowBob
05-29-2011, 09:20 PM
I was quite impressed at the intensity of the IC's...I was impressed with the light show. Most times it was just flashes, but the IC's did reveal some definition. It's now over. Lasted 25 minutes with good rainfall and good lighting. Now moving east.

obwan
05-29-2011, 10:39 PM
There's a reason they call niagara the electricity capital of canada, and its not just niagara falls and the hydro plant. I think that because thunderstorms are fewer and farther between, we build alot of static in the ground.
Tonight was an example of one of our highly energetic storms passing I went in the house for the last couple minutes as things were getting too close. enjoy


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwOI3oCa2XY

obwan
05-29-2011, 10:51 PM
Thanks slacker, great shot. nice to see some form to the storm.

DarkSky
05-29-2011, 11:12 PM
As nasty as it seemed because of all the lightning, it really wasn't that bad. Almost ZERO wind. Heavy rain as it was over head, but aside from the lightning it wasn't as bad as it looked on radar.

May 29, 2011 @<hidden> 10PM, St. Catharines
<fieldset class="fieldset"> <legend>Attached Thumbnails</legend> http://www.ontariostorms.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=5035&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1306723779 (http://www.ontariostorms.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=5035&d=1306723779) http://www.ontariostorms.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=5038&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1306723868 (http://www.ontariostorms.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=5038&d=1306723868) http://www.ontariostorms.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=5039&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1306723871 (http://www.ontariostorms.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=5039&d=1306723871)
</fieldset>

StormFreak
05-30-2011, 12:13 AM
St Catharine's, by the hospital, 6th floor balcony. Wonderful view of a great Lightning Storm.

Video has been cut out with the best stuff i filmed, to cut down on, idle sky.

Taken with my digital camera, Best thing i have at the moment.

<iframe width="425" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/vb_qtPkL-tQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

DarkSky
05-30-2011, 02:09 AM
Awesome video StormFreak! Great editing job too. I know how time consuming it is with lightning video. (I used to pull all the best parts back when I started in '98, but just don't have the patience anymore! :) ) You've got an awesome vantage point. Keep 'em coming on future lightning storms!

(ps. I'm going to move this post into the May.29 thread in the first forum - I'll move that entire thread into the 2011 forum later)

DarkSky
05-30-2011, 02:13 AM
I was quite impressed at the intensity of the IC's...I was impressed with the light show. Most times it was just flashes, but the IC's did reveal some definition. It's now over. Lasted 25 minutes with good rainfall and good lighting. Now moving east.

Yes, LOTS of inner cloud lighting. It was turning me off and I almost gave up shooting. But I've been shooting lightning long enough to know that sometimes the best crawlers and bolts occur after the main core has passed by. It gave me about 4-5 half decent shots, out of 200+ standing there for over an hour :o Aaahh.. I can still remember the days of going through 3-4 rolls of film only to get them developed and have a single shot worth keeping. Digital cameras are a godsend to lightning photography :p

ParkingLot
05-30-2011, 12:10 PM
It came rolling through here pretty good at around 7 and again at 9.....

StormFreak
05-30-2011, 02:51 PM
Thanks Dark Sky! it was defiantly time consuming, keeping track of what times all the good stuff happened at, im hoping to get an HD video camera for future storms!

Sadly though, ill be leaving this place as of the end of june :(

Itchy
05-30-2011, 06:20 PM
Forgot to Save radar scans from this day but many people followed this system waiting too see what will happen as it crossed the border. And of course as it does small popcorn storms explode everywhere ruining good chances for a significant storm to roll through with the ability to produce a tube with the exception to the Windsor area. Though in the end that thunderstorms northern side wound up hitting land with the more dangerous portion staying just over the water.


The big problem was how undefined things were and a lot of what was going around was high based.....
Around 7 though A small weak cell travel ESE through London with very definable features.
It managed to organize and rotate a bit as well......

It started as a rain core coming through going the same direction


http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3032/5776943883_ffe9ce2900_b.jpg

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2130/5776972691_fe19f596e5_b.jpg

http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5148/5777492306_4739f1c781_b.jpg

As it left a weak looking shelf could be seen in the distance heading the same way and a rounded base with some rotation and interesting scud underneath beginning to form into a new base

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3372/5776999909_78b6989ba4_b.jpg

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2146/5776986497_c3f518c509_b.jpg

http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5308/5777006449_07eefe4435_b.jpg

As it passes overhead

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2765/5777013833_ec90766208_b.jpg

this shot is darkened to help show the cool clouds that were going in all sorts of directions in this clear slot

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3005/5777560600_546a9f2906_b.jpg

As the cell left it looked like the base was getting a bit thicker looking and rotating more

http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5110/5777567664_ddc6a593f1_z.jpg

You can see a clear slot cutting into the backside causing the spin and separating this portion from the shelf to its SW

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3585/5777033359_be6cab3b22_b.jpg


These pics are through a window so there was a raindrop on the second shot I could not avoid and the second one's a bit darker than it should be but I'm too lazy to change it right now

http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5307/5777580004_727edf2c6a_b.jpg

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3623/5777586418_70f2334ca7_b.jpg

the flank

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2066/5777052915_35e9e2a3ce_b.jpg

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3189/5777061533_e48e5c199f_b.jpg

and another cell Later in the evening about to hit London

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2702/5777068893_109b713dcf_b.jpg

DarkSky
05-31-2011, 12:50 PM
Found a couple radar images that I saved :

Derecho
06-04-2011, 11:36 AM
Well, late recap, but I was in Corunna on the Michigan border of Lambton County. At one point, much of SE Michigan was under a tornado warning and a group of about 12 of us were watching the Detroit coverage. It was extremely hot and humid outside, but as the line of thunderstorms moved east of Flint, Michigan, a secondary line developed out ahead of it and the main line behind it essentially fizzled out before moving into St. Clair County MI and Lambton County ON. I heard a few decent thunders and there was light rain in Corunna.

The most interesting thing that happened though, was Emergency Management Ontario issued a very late and very false red alert for a tornado, later citing they thought "watch" meant "warning".

The Sarnia police chief interrupted all tv and radio broadcasting messages to get below ground, and they even sounded the tornado sirens all up the St. Clair River. The next day the police chief made a statement they were misinformed by EMO, and really... I hope someone got in serious trouble for making that huge of a mistake.

The funny thing is, they even issued the false red alert after the tornado warning for Essex County had ended. Seriously. Environment Canada should be heading these new warning alerts, not a secondary source like Emergency Management Ontario who obviously have no idea what they are doing.

Anyway, my camera was recording the storm when the tornado sirens were turned on in Corunna. I was actually going out back to get it after the storm when the sirens went off... you hear a gate slam at 10 seconds, that's me running in panic.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXnBnAdHtI0

Itchy
06-04-2011, 08:06 PM
I remember that, when they mistaken the watch for a warning the closest storm was over the lake SE of Windsor .....

The problem here is people involved with the warning system that have little sense when it comes to the weather..... the fact that the person turning on the siren wasn't capable enough on their own to realize there was not even a threat of a sever storm at the time let alone a tornado warning.

Derecho
06-04-2011, 09:31 PM
I remember that, when they mistaken the watch for a warning the closest storm was over the lake SE of Windsor .....

The problem here is people involved with the warning system that have little sense when it comes to the weather..... the fact that the person turning on the siren wasn't capable enough on their own to realize there was not even a threat of a sever storm at the time let alone a tornado warning.

Yeah, I should have added the tornado warning was for Essex County and only Essex County, but EMO sent an emergency action message saying Essex, Kent, and Lambton counties were under tornado warnings, citing Environment Canada.

I don't blame the police department for turning the sirens on. They had no choice, obviously everyone was aware of the tornado watch and several tornado warnings in Michigan, and when they receive word from the government that a tornado warning is in effect for the area, they were just acting to save lives. They even sounded the sirens for almost ten minutes, when during any other emergency they have always gone off for just three minutes.

I blame Emergency Management Ontario. John Doe at the switchboard of the sirens probably isn't a storm watcher, or even knows where to look for storms. He just takes what info is given to him from the federal or provincial or county government and assumes it's correct because it's his job to.

At any rate, during the radio hour on the false warning the next day, everyone was saying it's good to have a 'dress rehearsal' and everyone needs to be aware it can happen someday.

Sarnia isn't just a city with tornado sirens, and sometimes false tornado warnings. The sirens are multi-purposed they are used for:
A- Chemical emergencies (Sarnia is chemical valley)
B- Severe weather

Anytime the sirens go off in Sarnia people take immediate action because there could be a life threatening poison gas cloud heading in their direction. In all honesty, I didn't even think it was a tornado at the time. I thought for sure a lightning bolt struck a refinery and a major fire or chemical leak was in progress. Hence why I just took off inside. The emergency alert system took a few minutes to come on the TV and radio, but the entire time I was just panicking that we'd have to evacuate. As soon as the tornado warning safety messages came over the airwaves, I thought "this makes no sense" and I checked Environment Canada's website.