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obwan
05-25-2011, 05:37 AM
with everything going on elsewhere i would say these warnings should be taken more seriouly than ones in the past.


here is what the SPC has to say for this day

...WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT MODERATE TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION MAY TAKE PLACE BENEATH A DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME
DOWNSTREAM OF THE OHIO VALLEY IMPULSE...FROM PARTS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE MIXED LAYER CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-3000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
EXHIBITING SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
MODESTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SEEM
POSSIBLE...PERHAPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

here is what buffalo says

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --THIS PERIOD LOOKS VERY INTERESTING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA WILL EVENTUALLY EMERGE
INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS THURSDAY...AS THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE
LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER
CIRCULATION PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
BUFKIT PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN A
FAVORABLY DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE TO 4 KM
VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 20 M/S WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. HELICITY
VALUES LOOK TO BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE AND
EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL BE JUST NORTH AND WEST
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALBEIT LOW...THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

WE WOULD EXPECT THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO ABOVE 1.5
INCHES.

WE SHOULD STAY IN A WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EVEN AFTER THE
SURFACE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS AIRMASS SHOULD
PROVE TO BE VERY HELPFUL IN FORCING MORE CONVECTION DURING THE
COURSE OF FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION.

SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

davefootball123
05-25-2011, 08:27 AM
Deffenitley a severe risk. And like they said supercells are possible given to 40 or so kt bulk shear and 0-3km helecity values of 250-350m2s2. There are also curved low level hodographs. There looks to be a fair amount of destabalization as well. I will make a better outlook whe. I get home from school

Itchy
05-30-2011, 07:00 PM
There was an attempt at a storm in London around 5 PM I think. it had a small area of rotation in the base
with some weak lift to it as well. It was just a tiny green dot on Radar


The area just to the left of the building is slowly rotating

http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5310/5767034898_59e30c2d39_b.jpg

http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5270/5767043070_6aee0c64d2_b.jpg