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View Full Version : Storm Threat. May 10th-11th ish


davefootball123
05-02-2011, 05:19 PM
Was just taking a look at the GFS. The latest GFS brings a really good chance of severe storms into our are on the **latest run**. the latest run indicates MLCAPE valus upwards of 2000j/kg with lifted indices of -6 or less. Surface temps approaching or exceeding the 80f mark. With dewpoints into the 60's. 0-6km bulk shear values of around 50kts may be in place We will have to see becaues alot can change in 9 days just wanted to put this out there ;). Will have to see if 18z run stays with this.(just coming out now) If it does I will make another post in this thread

davefootball123
05-02-2011, 07:25 PM
Ok....18z run is deffenitley less impressive. But still present. Will have to see...:p

Anspray
05-02-2011, 09:00 PM
Was just taking a look at the GFS. The latest GFS brings a really good chance of severe storms into our are on the **latest run**. the latest run indicates MLCAPE valus upwards of 2000j/kg with lifted indices of -6 or less. Surface temps approaching or exceeding the 80f mark. With dewpoints into the 60's. 0-6km bulk shear values of around 50kts may be in place We will have to see becaues alot can change in 9 days just wanted to put this out there ;). Will have to see if 18z run stays with this.(just coming out now) If it does I will make another post in this thread

Where do you get those maps?

davefootball123
05-02-2011, 09:21 PM
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Click GFS than pick the desired product. That product is MLCAPE>(Convective Available Potential Energy)

davefootball123
05-03-2011, 04:26 PM
Storm Threat still there. Staying pretty consistent on the latest couple of runs

davefootball123
05-03-2011, 05:50 PM
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THEY DO AGREE THAT
BEGINNING ON SUN/D6...A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WRN STATES...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS WOULD PORTEND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 3-4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE DEVELOPING
FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON MON/D7 INTO
TUE/D8 AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO D9. IF TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE
PERSISTS...SEVERE RISK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN
SUBSEQUENT D4-8 OUTLOOKS.

..JEWELL.. 05/03/2011
From the SPC

Anspray
05-03-2011, 10:38 PM
I see what your saying now, thanks for the link.

davefootball123
05-04-2011, 05:14 PM
Our risk has really gotten less on the latest runs. Seems southwestern ontario still has a chance. But it deffenitley isnt looking as good. Who knows it could change. Keep on the bright side lol. There are still other good parameters favourable . Just not excessive instability that was forecast on previous models. Still some instability with CAPE near 1000j/kg. Shear and helecity parameters as well as other dynamics are still supportive of severe storms. Just not the instablility that was indicated earlier. Then again i was suprised to see 3500j/kg CAPE in southwestern ontario...especially for early May. If Ontario is gonna get CAPE that high it would be in the dead of summer. Anyway, will have to see what 18z run brings today. Will report back later

obwan
05-05-2011, 05:44 PM
from buffalo;

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. WE WILL BE ON ITS NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY...WHICH IS OFTEN THE REGION TO WATCH FOR ANY MCS TYPE
ACTION...BUT IT WILL INITIALLY BE DRY FOR MON AND TUES AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME FINE
MAY WX WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR 70 BY TUES
AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 8C. THE FIRST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE
WED IF WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER...BUT SFC HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST SHOULD
HOLD ONE MORE DAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS BY THURS.
WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MAXES REACHING INTO THE L70S BY MIDWEEK

davefootball123
05-05-2011, 06:03 PM
I was just gonna post this. Our Severe risk appears to be a little later. More Wednesday now. Probably Late afternoon to late Wedensday. The low appears to wait a little to get out this way on the latest runs.

obwan
05-05-2011, 09:11 PM
Here's what accuweather.com has to say, looks good but not for us;

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/49238/back-to-a-severe-weather-pattern-next-week.asphttp://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/49238/back-to-a-severe-weather-pattern-next-week.asp

davefootball123
05-05-2011, 09:16 PM
Ya the models took a turn for the worse lol. But who knows

davefootball123
05-06-2011, 06:06 PM
12z GFS from today shows the risk starting to get back up here again. CAPE forecast to be around 1500-2000j/kg with other dynamics like shear also being good as well. The risk appears to be wednesday-thursday time frame. A little later then earlier models were forecasting

davefootball123
05-06-2011, 07:12 PM
It looks to be a deffenite Thursday risk if anything were to happen. The latest models indicate a low forming and then weakening over Northern Ontario and new low forming over the midwest moving towards the upper lakes. This is what is moving our risk to the later half of the week. If something were to happen it would most likley be a linear type MCS of some sort. The risk isnt really good but there is a risk there. Will just have to wait and see what happens and what coming model runs bring. However the GFS indicates really nice and warm temps. Possibley approaching upper 20's(80f) in the extreme southwest both Wednesday and Thursday more like 20-25( mid 70's) if anything for us. Will be nice if that happens eh :D
GFS has been screwy with this latest system regarding us in Southern Ontario though...Time to check some new models

davefootball123
05-07-2011, 02:29 PM
GFS is so screwy. The 12z run from today just destroyed our chances lol. Temps still appear nice though