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View Full Version : Storm Threat: April 25-27.11


Derecho
04-23-2011, 05:34 PM
Well folks, looks like next week parts of Southern Ontario may be in for a round or two of thunderstorms as a low pressure system originating from Texas makes a pass over the Great Lakes.

The greatest area of severe weather will be south of the Ohio Valley, but it does appear that a modest damaging wind and hail threat may exist over Southern Ontario especially Tuesday through Wednesday with the passage of the slow moving cold front. Dewpoints, instability, wind shear, and other parameters all look sufficient to support at least a strong threat in the form of a line of thunderstorms moving SW to NE or W to E.

We could also be seeing some pretty significant rainfall amounts through to Wednesday and possibly several areas of embedded thunder.

Hopefully I didn't just jinx the threat :whistling:

davefootball123
04-23-2011, 09:06 PM
Deffenitley looks like a heavy rain event for sure. The dynamics are deffenitley there for the potential of some strong storms in the period. Hopefully all pans out and hopefully the models get better every run

Derecho
04-23-2011, 11:17 PM
For what it's worth, 21z SREF is in...

Significant tornado parameters for 4pm Tuesday... obviously take this with a grain of salt and it likely won't verify, but it sure is mighty interesting...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2011042321/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f072.gif

davefootball123
04-23-2011, 11:25 PM
That is very interesting. I was taking a look at the latest GFS run. Dynamics are there for some possible strong thudnerstorms. Hopefully it all pans out. CAPE appears to be in between 500-1000j/kg with slightly above that in some areas. There looks to be plenty of bulk shear and a strong LLJ will be in place which is always good for nader development. Liftied indicies look to be in the -2 or below range. And to cap it all of surface temps look to be into the 70's :o with dewpoints into the 60's. Gotta keep watching this thing

Derecho
04-23-2011, 11:31 PM
That is very interesting. I was taking a look at the latest GFS run. Dynamics are there for some possible strong thudnerstorms. Hopefully it all pans out. CAPE appears to be in between 500-1000j/kg with slightly above that in some areas. There looks to be plenty of bulk shear and a strong LLJ will be in place which is always good for nader development. Liftied indicies look to be in the -2 or below range. And to cap it all of surface temps look to be into the 70's :o with dewpoints into the 60's. Gotta keep watching this thing

It's still climatologically early for southern Ontario so 500-1,000j/kg of any CAPE would be enough to support a severe threat with low topped storms. In fact, that is how much of 2011's severe events have been like across Michigan, northern Ohio an southern Ontario. Low CAPE environments.

I just noticed that tornadoes were confirmed on April 19 in northwestern Ohio just southwest of Pelee Island, Essex County, Ontario. Parameters were not the greatest in that region when those tornadoes occurred, so goes to show that right now we can still have a decent event without the June to August -like- instability. Now those confirmed tornadoes were not bigguns, just brief spin-ups embedded in the line of severe storms that moved from the Mississippi Valley northward to southern Ontario.

davefootball123
04-23-2011, 11:36 PM
Yes deffenitley. The NAM also has a pretty good hold on this upcoming tuesday night risk, looking pretty good at the moment (crosses fingers). And on top of this it appears a second low may form over Oklahoma on Wednesday tracking through michigan and across lake huron on thursday bringing us another risk of thunderstorms. However this time the low appers to be stronger and negativley tilted.

Derecho
04-24-2011, 08:08 AM
SPC has put us under a Slight Risk on the new Day 3 Outlook.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...
AS A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFT QUICKLY
NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE/REDEVELOP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NARROWING DOWN EXACT AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME WITH WIDESPREAD AREA OF AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A BROAD AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT/FAVORABLE
SHEAR. DETAILS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT
ATTM...WILL INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE EPISODES
OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST -- INCLUDING
THREATS FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

davefootball123
04-24-2011, 09:20 AM
I was just gonna post that lol

davefootball123
04-24-2011, 03:37 PM
I was just checking the latest NAM model. Looks pretty good for tuesday. I also noticed that the NAM shows a crazy squall line in the mid south on thursday. And i mean crazy

DarkSky
04-24-2011, 08:47 PM
EC predicting tstorms for St. Kitts !

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/2478/tempyh.jpg

benjaminblizzard
04-25-2011, 02:21 AM
EC is predicting tstorms for Toronto as well. Fingers crossed!

benjaminblizzard
04-25-2011, 02:24 AM
From SPC's Day 2 Convective Outlook as of 0100 AM CDT today.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THIS AREA FOCUSING LARGE-SCALE UVV ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX. WHILE AFTERNOON
HEATING MAY BE HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD
COVER...LOCAL AREAS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY -- AS FAR NE AS
PA AND NY NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WITH A STRONG SWLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA
/LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING FROM 50 TO 65 KT IN THE 850 TO 500 MB
LAYER/...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...ALONG WITH
LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS. ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD WITH TIME AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY ADVANCES...WITH SOME THREAT LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO NY/PA/WV.

Smokin Joe
04-25-2011, 10:38 AM
I wish SPC would finish the portion of the risk area that is over Ontario.....that would be way more satisfying if they just finished the damn line lol! EC should throw some cash to SPC to finish the map over canada and provide a link from their website
if they really wanted canadians safe they should think outside the box if they don't want to spend to set up the infrastructure here then just pay some cash to get it done for us.

DarkSky
04-25-2011, 11:31 AM
Day 1 risk looks nice :

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/dy1.gif

But check out Day 2 !!!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/dy2.gif

fitzcalvin
04-25-2011, 12:07 PM
SWS issued by EC (for all of southern and eastern Ontario) at 11:22 this morning. I agree that Wednesday looks like the day to watch, particularly for those of us in Eastern Ontario (the Ottawa Valley, in my case).

WOCN11 CWTO 251522
Special weather statement
Issued by Environment Canada at 11:22 AM EDT Monday 25 April 2011.

..Significant rainfall tonight and Tuesday..

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
An intensifying low pressure system located over the southern plains
of the United States will track slowly toward the Great Lakes regions
tonight. Rain in advance of this system will continue to spread
northeast through Southwestern Ontario this afternoon and through
southcentral and Eastern Ontario tonight and Tuesday. The rain could
be heavy at times and accompanied by isolated thunderstorms as the
low pressure centre gets closer to the Great Lakes tonight.
Heavy rain is expected to taper off to a few showers early Tuesday
morning before another bout of heavy rain and a few thunderstorms,
associated with a cold front sweeps in Tuesday afternoon and evening.

In general, total rainfall amounts of 30 to 40 mm are expected during
this event. Embedded thunderstorms could give locally higher
amounts.

Anspray
04-25-2011, 01:20 PM
So realistically a rain event for southern Ontario? That's my prediction.:whistling:

davefootball123
04-25-2011, 01:52 PM
I was just looking at the latest SREF SIG TOR. Looking pretty good. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f036&startdate=2011042509&field=SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__

davefootball123
04-25-2011, 05:37 PM
Just thought i would post an update on the possible storms tomorrow and wednesday.
First off it looks just as good as it did earlier today. There does appear to be marginal instability and with type of system even 500-1000j/kg CAPE is more than sufficent. It is also early for Southern Ontario to have high CAPE values considering it is still april. There appears to be a large amount of shear. 0-6km bulk shear values of at least 50kts throughout all of southern ontario. I was looking at the SREF sig tor and it appears that with the helecity and the shear available there may be an isolated tornado possible however the best risk for tornadoes is deffenitley in the ohio valley/mid south states tomorrow. I was also taking a look at the latest soundings on the GFS model http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=04&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=18&fhour=27&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y&sounding.x=675&sounding.y=250
That sounding is for the Hamilton/Niagara area and it indicates surface temps in the 20's with dewpoints approaching or hitting 20 degrees. As you can see the air does cool off signifigantly as you approach mid levels in the atmosphere indicating some strong storms could produce some hail. That latest NAM also indicates that the storms will have a damaging wind threat as is always the case with linear systems. The possibility for storms on wednesday looks much the same as tuesday . The risk is basicly the same for both days. Damaging winds are a possibility as well as some hail and mabye just mabye an isolated tornado given the fact that some of the tornadoes in the past week have formed in some very marginal instability in northern/central ohio.

To round it off with the timing. The NAM,WRF and GEM all indicate that on Tuesday the possible squall line would come through between 4 and 8pm. I can not pin point the exact time beacuse the models are subject to changing through each run. The WRF and GEM are particularly impressive with this system bringing a well defined squall line through southwestern ontario and then through the golden horshoe as well as areas somewhat further north too

EDIT: Timing is looking a little more confident between each model. The GEM,WRF,and NAM all put the line through hamilton at around 22z or 6pm and on Wednesday the storms are a little bit more tricky to anticipate the timing however it looks to be after 7pm at least atm

stormy kid
04-25-2011, 06:20 PM
so sweet if we get severe thunderstorms on Tues. afternoon getting the cam ready lol...

SlideShowBob
04-25-2011, 10:58 PM
I can't wait...I've got the day off Tuesday. Could be an active few days. Best of luck everyone and stay safe!

DarkSky
04-26-2011, 12:01 AM
From weather.com :

Tuesday :

http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews02_ltst_4namus_enus_600x338.jpg

Wednesday:

http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews03_ltst_4namus_enus_600x338.jpg

DarkSky
04-26-2011, 12:04 AM
Hopefully we can get lets of pics/vids up of any action. Unfortunately, with gas at $1.30+ a liter I won't be going to far.

SlideShowBob
04-26-2011, 12:43 AM
Hopefully we don't have to go to far...but putting new batteries in cameras, flashlights, charging everything else...;-)

benjaminblizzard
04-26-2011, 01:57 AM
Current NWS SPC Day 1 Outlook just posted:

...TN/OH VALLEYS INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES...
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL AND WARM MOIST AIR STREAMING NWD WILL HELP
FUELS STORMS IN THIS REGION WITH HAIL AND WIND LIKELY. SHEAR APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR
AS WELL.

Wednesday still looks much better, though.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
***POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT --
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- REMAINS EVIDENT
THIS FORECAST...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA.***

SOME QUESTIONS EXIST ATTM WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND THE ONGOING STORMS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING
ACROSS ERN AR AND INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
WHILE THE COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION COULD HAVE
EFFECTS ON TIMING/LOCATION OF LATER DAY STORMS AS WELL AS THE
QUALITY OF AIRMASS IN SOME AREAS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT EARLY STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THROUGH THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME.

HOWEVER...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE AND AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVELY-COOLED AREAS...STORM REINTENSIFICATION AND NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 80 TO 100
KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
VERY INTENSE/LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS -- COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
SIGNIFICANT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND -- DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE --
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/VERY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE -- ALONG WITH TORNADO THREAT -- WILL EXTEND NNEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

obwan
04-26-2011, 04:30 AM
for wednesday

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE
VICINITY OF AR EARLY NNEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER
MS VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS -- WITH A ZONE BETWEEN THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIAN
CREST LIKELY TO SEE A WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD.

ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE -- ALONG WITH TORNADO THREAT -- WILL EXTEND NNEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

davefootball123
04-26-2011, 07:29 AM
Wednesday does look better. Warmer with better dp's and more
available CAPE. Shear and helecity are also favourable for isolated supercells. I will update my forecast later

seppi519
04-26-2011, 08:35 AM
new batteries in my camera laptop and cell all charged up with backup power supply gonna hit the road soon hopefully today does it

DarkSky
04-26-2011, 11:17 AM
SPC Day 1 for Apr.26

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif

benjaminblizzard
04-26-2011, 01:48 PM
Check out the most recent Day 2!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

DarkSky
04-26-2011, 03:31 PM
384
WOCN11 CWTO 261625
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 12:25 PM EDT TUESDAY 26 APRIL 2011.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR..
CITY OF TORONTO
WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
SARNIA - LAMBTON
ELGIN
LONDON - MIDDLESEX
SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
OXFORD - BRANT
NIAGARA
CITY OF HAMILTON
HALTON - PEEL
YORK - DURHAM
HURON - PERTH
WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
GREY - BRUCE
BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
CITY OF OTTAWA
GATINEAU
PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE
PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
HALIBURTON
RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY
ALGONQUIN
BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

..OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY..

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
WILL TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS CROSSING SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO INTO
NIAGARA THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THE ODD THUNDERSTORM MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
REGIONS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND AREAS FARTHER EAST TONIGHT. FOR AREAS FROM SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO
TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO, SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE
STRONG AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED.

ON WEDNESDAY, YET ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, BRINGING TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 30 MILLIMETRES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD GIVE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE IS ALSO A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF WET WEATHER.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM AND WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED AS THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

END/OSPC

Smokin Joe
04-27-2011, 09:36 AM
Looks like a good storm between goderich and KItchener now

DarkSky
04-27-2011, 11:57 AM
Severe thunderstorm watches issued for many regions: http://www.ontariostorms.com/showthread.php?goto=newpost&t=635



LARGE HAIL OF 2 TO 3 CENTIMETRES IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO BE EXPECTED.</pre>

DarkSky
04-27-2011, 01:37 PM
Well if this is ever going to be true, temps are going to have to jump by 17 degrees. I'm near the lake and the thermometer is showing 10C - I can't see it being 17 degrees higher elsewhere in the city !

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/5124/tempcl.jpg

fitzcalvin
04-27-2011, 02:12 PM
OK, looks like we're underway. Active watches now include the following: "The main concerns are large hail up to 3 centimetres and damaging wind gusts to 100 km/h. There will also be an increasing threat during the afternoon for an isolated tornado. This watch may be upgraded to a tornado watch as the storms develop, if their evolution dictate a higher tornado risk."

I don't see the numbers (in NAM, at 21Z) supporting large hail (in Eastern Ontario, anyway - not enough lift), but ran a thumbnail SWEAT index for that time and came up with a 449! If nothing else, should get a pretty good light show tonight. I think that northern NY state will see plenty of action tonight.

Get those cameras ready!

DarkSky
04-28-2011, 03:31 AM
031
AWCN11 CWTO 280219
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:17 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 27 APRIL 2011.

-------------------------------------------------------------
==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RACED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE
CENTRE MOVING INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THERE WERE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS, POWER OUTAGES AND SPORADIC DAMAGE ACROSS A FAIRLY
LENGTHY SWATH FROM EAST OF LONDON TO THE KITCHENER-WATERLOO REGION
INTO THE GREATER TORONTO AREA AND THEN EAST.

-------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION (TIME) EVENT DESCRIPTION

LONDON (2:32 PM) 76 KM/H GUST

BLANDFORD-BLENHEIM (SW OF ONTARIO PROV. POLICE REPORTS POSSIBLE
KITCHENER) (3:05 PM) TORNADO WITH DEBRIS AND TREES DOWN

AYR (S OF KITCHENER) (3:10 PM) POSSIBLE TORNADO (NO CONFIRMED
DAMAGE)

WATERLOO-WELLINGTON AIRPORT 107 KM/H GUST
(3:18 PM)

BRESLAU (3:20 PM) 100 KM/H GUST

FERGUS (3:30 PM) PROBABLE TORNADO - SOME MINOR DAMAGE
TO LOCAL BUILDINGS

EAST GARAFRAXA (SW OF SEVERELY DAMAGED BARN (ROOF AND SOME
ORANGEVILLE) (3:45 PM) WALLS BLOWN 60 METRES) AND TREE DOWN

ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS LOOKING INTO SOME OF THE DAMAGE REPORTS ALONG
WITH EYE-WITNESS ACCOUNTS AND PHOTOS TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY
TORNADOES MAY BE CONFIRMED OR PROBABLE. A DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM MAY BE
SENT OUT TO ONE OR MORE SITES ON THURSDAY FOR FURTHER INVESTIGATION.

THIS WEATHER SUMMARY CONTAINS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION AND MAY NOT
CONSTITUTE AN OFFICIAL OR FINAL REPORT.

END/OSPC

davefootball123
04-28-2011, 07:22 AM
Yesterday the temp downtown was 9 where i was its was 26

obwan
04-28-2011, 04:51 PM
we hit 29C in thorold yesterday

Derecho
04-29-2011, 12:56 AM
Not too sure why EC issued severe thunderstorm warnings for the hazards of large hail, damaging winds and reported tornadoes on April 27th....

Heck, a little girl was crushed by a fallen tree in Kitchener which some are speculating may have been a continuation of the Ayr tornado...

They should have issued a tornado warning for Perth, Oxford, Waterloo, Wellington, Brant, Hamilton, Halton, and Dufferin counties. Not all at once, but that is where each individual couplet was evident on Buffalo radar.

Derecho
04-29-2011, 01:02 AM
But, a tornado warning these days from Environment Canada is probably asking too much... especially since this blunder...

Maybe Environment Canada is now like pre 1950s America where they believed forecasting a tornado would cause panic...


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:52 PM EDT SUNDAY 1 AUGUST 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - LEAMINGTON - ESSEX COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A FUNNEL CLOUD HAS BEEN REPORTED IN CENTRAL ESSEX COUNTY. THERE IS
THE RISK THAT THIS FUNNEL COULD REACH THE GROUND AND CAUSE LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE.

davefootball123
04-29-2011, 08:10 PM
Not too sure why EC issued severe thunderstorm warnings for the hazards of large hail, damaging winds and reported tornadoes on April 27th....

Heck, a little girl was crushed by a fallen tree in Kitchener which some are speculating may have been a continuation of the Ayr tornado...

They should have issued a tornado warning for Perth, Oxford, Waterloo, Wellington, Brant, Hamilton, Halton, and Dufferin counties. Not all at once, but that is where each individual couplet was evident on Buffalo radar.

I agree. There were some weird cloud formations were i was with some evidence of some rotation on radar. I didnt notice any rotation overhead though...