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View Full Version : Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.


davefootball123
04-04-2011, 10:07 PM
I was taking a look once again at the latest GFS for next week particualrly monday and it looks great compared to the model runs leading up to these past storms. Although it is far away as it stand right now many areas in southern ontario could be looking at MLCAPE's over 1000j/kg with surface temps into the 60's with this next low pressure which looks to be fairly strong. This could mean a risk of thunderstorms and as it looks now. Lifted indices on the latest GFS indicate in the -4 to -6 range which is quite good(Liftied indicies in the negatives indicated unstable conditions and favorable lift for the development of thunderstorms). Temps in the upper level look quite cool which is usual for this time of year. Looks like there could be some hail and damaging winds if these storms do pan out. And you know the models IT IS A BIG IFFFFFFFFFFF. Just wanted to let you guys know.

Smokin Joe
04-05-2011, 12:45 PM
Hope it pans out i'm ready for some action

Derecho
04-05-2011, 04:35 PM
I almost don't believe the latest long range GFS run... thought I was seeing things with 55F dewpoints all the way to Ottawa on Sunday

davefootball123
04-05-2011, 07:06 PM
Hmm. SPC is seeing what im seeing. They have put a risk in for Day 6 sunday already. Have to keep an eye on this. I will post updated as much as possible

davefootball123
04-05-2011, 08:12 PM
still lookin good...

davefootball123
04-05-2011, 09:33 PM
Well then.... Sorry i dont check to ther forums gosh...

Derecho
04-06-2011, 04:48 PM
87 hrs on the sigtor FWIW
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2011040609/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f087.gif

davefootball123
04-06-2011, 06:44 PM
not looking as good on the GFS as it was. Still a risk but the better storms will be illinoio,ohio valley, southern michigan, mabye extreme southwest ontario. To early to make a call. We will have to see

davefootball123
04-07-2011, 06:58 PM
New GFS is looking quite good CAPE around 1000j/kg with dewpoints into the mid to high 50's with surface temps into the 70's. CMC is also picking up a line of storms moving through here....Have to wait to see. Only problem is the time the front passes :(

davefootball123
04-07-2011, 09:36 PM
As of right now it looks as the front should pass through monday morning. The CMC and GFS agree with a line of storms moving through Illinois,Michigan and into Ontario passing us then weakening. The SREF doesnt agree with much instability getting this far east north east with the MLCAPE of 1000j/kg reaching to about london. The GFS indicates MLCAPE up to 1000j/kg all the way up to about barrie and a little farther east, there will be more than ample shear with 0-6km efective shear of over 50kts. Since theses storms would hit us during the night we would be at the minimum for instability which sucks meaning that the storms will have to feed off of what there is up this way, at least we would get into the 70's during the day with points into the mid to high 50's which is great . Hopefully enough to keep a few strong ones going or at least some with some lightning. Its still early. But this system has the possibilty to produce are first strong storm(s) of the season.

obwan
04-08-2011, 04:07 AM
from buffalo

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE CREST OF THE H5 RIDGE WILL BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WHILE A WELL DEFINED VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PLACE OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND SEASONABLY MILD AIR
AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 14C.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL COUPLE WITH 100M HGT FALLS
AND A 100KT H25 JET TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT TO ENHANCE
ANY CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN EQUALLY BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS
OF THE SPRINGTIME SYSTEM AND BY MCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS COULD MAKE FOR SOME INTERESTING WEATHER ON MONDAY AS SOME
`FRISKY` THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE MAKING. WILL BE USING HIGH
LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SURROUNDING WFO`S. STY TUNED...

benjaminblizzard
04-08-2011, 05:59 PM
Got my fingers and toes crossed for this.

benjaminblizzard
04-08-2011, 06:01 PM
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080848
SPC AC 080848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2011

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A POWERFUL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE MODELS MOVE THIS
FEATURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY/DAY 4. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MOIST AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. ON TUESDAY/DAY
5...THE MODELS MOVE A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SWRN
STATES WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
BY WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN
PLAINS ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE THREAT SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER...LOOKS
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SRN PLAINS BECAUSE THE
INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WORKS OUT...THEN A SEVERE THREAT
COULD EXIST ON THURSDAY/DAY 7 AND FRIDAY/DAY 8 IN THE ARKLATEX AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. ATTM...NO AREAS WILL BE OUTLOOKED ACROSS THE CONUS
MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE AND
THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE MID-WEEK.

davefootball123
04-09-2011, 02:07 AM
I am still confident that we will see some thunderstorms. MLCAPE still looks to be AOA 1000j/kg. There will be plenty of moisture and daytime heating considering we will be 10+ degrees above normal. Dewpoints will be in the mid teens as well.
Just wanted to post a little something that the latest 0z CMC shows.

benjaminblizzard
04-09-2011, 06:22 PM
It was much warmer today in North York than expected - they called for 12 degrees and it's 5:30 pm and it's still 15C. The sun has been shining allllllll day :D It looks like we might actually get some action tomorrow!

obwan
04-09-2011, 06:44 PM
from buffalo

NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
436 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION ON MONDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

benjaminblizzard
04-09-2011, 08:00 PM
Latest from SPC:

SPC AC 091733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 09 2011

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF WISCONSIN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO NERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG SWLY
JET ON THE ERN FRINGE.

THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR A WIDESPREAD AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD.

...UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES -- APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WITH TIME. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT -- AND INVOF THE SURFACE LOW/WRM FRONT ACROSS
SERN MN/ERN IA/SRN WI -- SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INITIATE BY 20-22Z.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 80-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL
PROVIDE SHEAR VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS -- AND THUS STORMS WILL
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY INCREASE AND SPREAD QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...FUELED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY. GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO SRN WI/NRN
IL...NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
-- WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS
STORMS LIKELY BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED WITH TIME.

MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO
INTO NERN TX. WHILE TORNADO THREAT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STORMS WILL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT -- BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...WHERE STRONGEST FORCING
-- AND THUS GREATEST CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION -- IS FORECAST.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
WHILE WEAKER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN NY/WRN
PA...AFTERNOON CONVECTION CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE AND CROSSING SRN
ONTARIO MAY CROSS THE LAKES AND BRING A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL TO THIS REGION. ANY THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

davefootball123
04-09-2011, 08:12 PM
check www.southernontarioweather.ca outlooks for my write up

davefootball123
04-09-2011, 08:49 PM
Models look in pretty good agreement of the storms passing through the Golden Horshoe between 9am and noon. Hopefully its before 9 or after 245... I dont want to be in school if there is anything good.... Hmm mabye they will happen during my lunch.

obwan
04-10-2011, 10:30 AM
Severe storm warning for ontario

Warnings
Goderich - Bluewater - Southern Huron County
9:28 AM EDT Sunday 10 April 2011
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Goderich - Bluewater - Southern Huron County issued

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.


Wingham - Blyth - Northern Huron County
9:28 AM EDT Sunday 10 April 2011
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Wingham - Blyth - Northern Huron County issued

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

Reffik
04-10-2011, 10:31 AM
Well, we were going to take the dog to the park (in Mississauga), but that intense blob on the radar is blobbing its way right for us.

obwan
04-10-2011, 11:40 AM
I like what i see form EC and timming just about bang on

Warnings
Stratford - Mitchell - Southern Perth County
10:12 AM EDT Sunday 10 April 2011
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Stratford - Mitchell - Southern Perth County issued

At 10.00 AM EDT weather radar indicates a line of strong thunderstorms crossing the Southern Lake Huron shoreline from kingsbridge through Goderich to just west of St Joseph. These storms are moving eastward at about 70 km/h and will reach the Stratford, Mitchell and Milverton areas by 11 AM. The primary threats with these storms are large hail in excess of 2 cm diameter, strong wind gusts approaching 80 km/h and intense lightning.

davefootball123
04-10-2011, 01:14 PM
MONDAY..IT APPEARS SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE WITH THE CENTRE
MOVING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. WEAKENED QLCS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN THEN EASTERN ONTARIO WITH PROBABLY LITTLE
FANFARE. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY BUT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPES AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES THERE'S A LESSER CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS. WILL GO WITH APPROACHING SEVERE GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AT THIS TIME, BUT IT SEEMS TO BE A RATHER
LOW PROBABILITY.

Derecho
04-10-2011, 04:21 PM
Did anyone get a screen shot of the radar as the storm passed Waterloo? I was at work and missed it. Nothing severe on my end of the city, but coworkers from Kitchener saw some pretty big hail.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
OXFORD - BRANT
KITCHENER - CAMBRIDGE - REGION OF WATERLOO
GUELPH - ERIN - SOUTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY.

==DISCUSSION==
AT 11.20 AM EDT WEATHER RADAR INDICATES A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM JUST
SOUTH OF WATERLOO AND MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 70 KM/H.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF KITCHENER AND GUELPH,
THROUGH CAMBRIDGE AND THEN TOWARD HAMILTON. GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL HAS
BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 80 KM/H
AND INTENSE LIGHTNING ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED.

Derecho
04-10-2011, 04:36 PM
Check out this storm that will impact Thunder Bay in about 45 minutes


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:30 PM EDT SUNDAY 10 APRIL 2011.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= KAKABEKA FALLS - WHITEFISH LAKE - ARROW LAKE
ATIKOKAN - SHEBANDOWAN - QUETICO PARK.

==DISCUSSION==
AT 2:30 PM CDT, WEATHER RADAR INDICATES A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SAGANAGA LAKE AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 70 KM/H.
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 CM
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 100 KM/H. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE KAKABEKA FALLS AREA BY ABOUT 3 PM CDT.

http://i901.photobucket.com/albums/ac218/medusan/thunderbay.png

davefootball123
04-10-2011, 05:51 PM
Did anyone get a screen shot of the radar as the storm passed Waterloo? I was at work and missed it. Nothing severe on my end of the city, but coworkers from Kitchener saw some pretty big hail.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
OXFORD - BRANT
KITCHENER - CAMBRIDGE - REGION OF WATERLOO
GUELPH - ERIN - SOUTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY.

==DISCUSSION==
AT 11.20 AM EDT WEATHER RADAR INDICATES A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM JUST
SOUTH OF WATERLOO AND MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 70 KM/H.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF KITCHENER AND GUELPH,
THROUGH CAMBRIDGE AND THEN TOWARD HAMILTON. GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL HAS
BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 80 KM/H
AND INTENSE LIGHTNING ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED.

I was in ancaster at Sportcheck and Best buy when it happend. I watched it from the parking lot. There was some decent fork lightning

davefootball123
04-10-2011, 05:53 PM
PDS TORNADO WATCH FOR WISCONSIN, WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN, EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA ,EXTREME SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0120.html

DISCUSSION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
IMMINENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WI/MN BORDER INTO NERN IA. AIR
MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG...COUPLED WITH A VERY INTENSE WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL
OF BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOS WITH ANY SUPERCELL. THERE IS
THE THREAT OF LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH STRONG/DAMAGING
TORNADOES.

Smokin Joe
04-10-2011, 08:26 PM
Good start to the season. Golfballs on April 10 hopefully a sign of things to come!

Derecho
04-10-2011, 09:02 PM
CKCO Kitchener news story shows golf ball size hail... also check out the footage in the news video from Mitchell there was so much hail it looks like winter!
http://swo.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110410/ontario-storm-hail110410/20110410/?hub=SWOHome

Derecho
04-10-2011, 09:20 PM
Yet another amazing storm in the region... quite impressive for early April.

Here is a current supercell over northeastern Lower Michigan that is tornado warned. It peaked at 80dbz just five minutes ago. You can see southwestern Bruce County in the bottom right corner with Tiverton and Port Elgin. It will be interesting to watch how the lake will affect this supercell.

That white diamond is a 4.26" (10cm) hail marker, though only quarter size hail has been reported so far.

ALCONA MI-
815 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL ALCONA COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 811 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARTON CITY...OR 10 MILES
NORTH OF GLENNIE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

http://i901.photobucket.com/albums/ac218/medusan/gaylord.png

Reffik
04-10-2011, 11:01 PM
Tornado watches from Environment Canada...maybe I'll not be sleeping just yet.