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View Full Version : Monday Heavy rain...Mabye some storms


davefootball123
04-01-2011, 03:32 PM
I was taking a look at the latest GFS run today and to my suprise we have a chance at some storms on monday most likley not severe but then again i cant predict the future. There appears to be some CAPE and with SFC temps into the high 50's and possibley low to even mid 60's near windsor who knows :p. Deffenitly rain with this system though. But its to early to tell anything at the moment lol

davefootball123
04-01-2011, 10:54 PM
Just checked the DTX expert forecast.
Based on all these scenarios, it appears likely some semblance of the warm sector ( 850 mb teens inthe lower teens ) will make it across the border Sunday night, with temperatures rising through thenight, even if we end up dealing more of an occlusion due to the influence of the cold lakes. If theGFS ends up being right, temperatures would be able to make it to 70 degrees on Monday, whichcoupled with surface dew pts surging into the lower 60s ( supported by the NAM ) would give us someconcerns for severe weather with capes of 500-1000+ j/kg and excellent wind shear/hodographs.

SlideShowBob
04-01-2011, 11:31 PM
I will be happy if I hear a rumble of thunder at this point. Anything else will be a bonus!

Derecho
04-01-2011, 11:53 PM
Just checked the DTX expert forecast.
Based on all these scenarios, it appears likely some semblance of the warm sector ( 850 mb teens inthe lower teens ) will make it across the border Sunday night, with temperatures rising through thenight, even if we end up dealing more of an occlusion due to the influence of the cold lakes. If theGFS ends up being right, temperatures would be able to make it to 70 degrees on Monday, whichcoupled with surface dew pts surging into the lower 60s ( supported by the NAM ) would give us someconcerns for severe weather with capes of 500-1000+ j/kg and excellent wind shear/hodographs.

That's for SE Michigan. By the border, they mean the Indiana/Ohio/Michigan border. Any severe potential would be completely isolated to SEMI and extreme SW ON. Could be some isolated rumbles for the rest of us on Monday throughout the day and early evening.

If the 21z SREF verifies, Essex County could be facing an isolated tornado potential :whistling:

davefootball123
04-02-2011, 12:14 AM
Ya thats but thats still in Ontario :p

davefootball123
04-02-2011, 11:21 PM
Just a quick update(will give a better one tomorrow). The 18z gfs which is the latest run as of 11:30pm when im writing this CAPE is AOA 750j/kg anywhere south of a line from st kitts to hamilton to brantford to london. Also checked the CMC model and it looks in agreement with other models about the possibility of storms. Closer to windsor the better like usual ;)

stormy kid
04-03-2011, 04:59 PM
more chances to get better storms on monday yesss (: (: (: lol

DarkSky
04-03-2011, 10:04 PM
Grrr! I'm leaving when all the fun is about to begin!

Can someone in the Niagara area on here keep track of any thunderstorms we have? Just date/time/description. Cell tops would be nice. I keep track of all the storms in St. Kitts each year and haven't started up my list for this year yet. But I'm leaving for Varadero/Havana Monday night.

http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/6143/tempq.jpg

davefootball123
04-03-2011, 10:33 PM
Looks like warm frontal convection is fireing now too.

stormy kid
04-03-2011, 11:21 PM
Well that's goood yessss

duruisso
04-04-2011, 12:01 AM
DarkSky; doesn't look like you are gonna miss much from where I'm standing; at least for now. Enjoy Cuba!

Derecho
04-04-2011, 12:22 AM
This is a particularly interesting severe thunderstorm warning from Wisconsin from earlier this evening, had to pause for a moment when I first read it...


AT 950 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WINDSOR
TO WATERLOO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.


;)

davefootball123
04-04-2011, 04:41 AM
... Thats cool... To think what baseballs would do to a metro area eh.

nachos_666
04-04-2011, 12:09 PM
last night at 300am till 410am.. in london ontario. we had thunderstorm.. but mainly INTENSE Lightning.. i got woken up to it. it was soo frequent and bright- that it lit up my whole apartment. I sat up and watched most of it. it wasn't just sheet lightning. like bolt after bolt.. i'm pretty excited.. if this is what starts off our storm seasons.
whats even weirder is that yesterday, we went from nice sunny weather, to snow. and hail in just minutes.. and we had snow on the ground when it stormed last night.. silly canada and our weather. LOL :D

DarkSky
04-04-2011, 12:50 PM
Just a few shots from 4-5am this morning:

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/2199/110404lightning0001.jpg

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/7416/110404lightning0002.jpg

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8048/110404lightning0003.jpg

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/5783/110404lightning0004.jpg

davefootball123
04-04-2011, 06:38 PM
I woke up at 345 to the lightning cause i had my window open and quickly threw my D90 in the open window and ran outside the watch to storm in boxers... was kinda cold but worth it for the nice light show

duruisso
04-05-2011, 09:58 PM
Wow cool shots!