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View Full Version : Sign of a stormy spring maybe?


Smokin Joe
03-03-2011, 01:48 PM
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/46472/spring-2011-forecast-drought-a.asp

check out the graphic for Spring about halfway down.....i know it doesn't mean much i the grand scheme of things but i'm looking for any positive signs at this point for an active storm season.....maybe this is one

davefootball123
03-03-2011, 07:35 PM
Hmmm possibley. It will probably be slightly cooler than normal like they say. But you know we have seen storms in april :D

Derecho
03-03-2011, 08:54 PM
Typical Nina spring. I threw together a few lines on the graphic to paint out how things work during Nina springs...

Most lows originate in the southwest or deep south USA during nina springs and rapidly advance northeastward towards the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. Most tracks end up directly over southern Ontario, just a hair north of us, or just south of Lake Erie.

The red L signifies a standard low origin with the purple lines representing the approx track. The blue line represents the cold front it creates, and the green line is the warm front. Basically, we end up usually hovering pretty close to the warm boundary and never really end up under it. Thus, we don't see a lot of active notable Nina spring severe weather this far north. Just a lot of cold rain.

http://i901.photobucket.com/albums/ac218/medusan/nina.png

Smokin Joe
03-04-2011, 09:08 AM
Thanks for the explanation....so when we look for ideal setups for spring severe weather should we hope for lows from the sw that track say to our west over lows coming from the west and passing to our north? Is basically lots of the battle remaining in the warm areas of low pressure systems when fronts pass, regardless of the origin of the low?

I know there are other factors in play, but I guess I am wondering what is the best set-up for us in the spring for severe weather for us?

Derecho
03-04-2011, 08:24 PM
Thanks for the explanation....so when we look for ideal setups for spring severe weather should we hope for lows from the sw that track say to our west over lows coming from the west and passing to our north? Is basically lots of the battle remaining in the warm areas of low pressure systems when fronts pass, regardless of the origin of the low?

I know there are other factors in play, but I guess I am wondering what is the best set-up for us in the spring for severe weather for us?

Low pressure systems that traverse northern Ontario into central Quebec that have elongated cold fronts and drylines that pass over southern Ontario.

stormy kid
03-08-2011, 07:18 PM
True and a nother thing
Ontario
With normal spring temperatures expected for the entire province, much of Ontario should see above normal precipitation amounts, thanks to an active weather season expected for the U.S., which will see more storms track into the Great Lakes basin than usual.

davefootball123
03-08-2011, 07:41 PM
Im expecting mid to late april basicly within the last 1-2 weeks of april to be the first severe weather of the season for us in ontario. We may see some thunderstorms before then but i dont beleive anything severe. I could see this summer being around average temps mabye slightly above on the precip. La Nina is showing signs of weakening meaning we could be in a transition summer. 2009 was a transition summer and IMO was a decent year. We had June 25th August 9th and August 20th just to pick 3. During the start of the summer in 09 i beleive we were weak la nina still then we went straight to an el nino to finish off the summer. One of the reasons we had that warm fall

antbradshaw
03-09-2011, 12:19 PM
theres alot of signs showing