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View Full Version : "What ifs" of storm based warnings in Ontario


Derecho
02-26-2011, 05:28 AM
Basing some warnings off NWS style, this is how it could look for us:




How it could be:

THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA WEATHER OFFICE IN TORONTO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEAST PERTH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
WEST CENTRAL WELLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
NORTHERN REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY OF WATERLOO IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 730 PM EDT...ENVIRONMENT CANADA DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LISTOWEL...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 KMH.
DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM ACROSS PERTH COUNTY!

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...TRALEE...HOLLEN...CONESTOGO LAKE CONSERVATION
AREA...WALLESTEIN...FLORADALE..ELMIRA...ELORA...AND FERGUS...

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HAIL
UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

How it was:

TORNADO WARNING
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 7:46 PM EDT SUNDAY 8 JULY 2007.
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TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= KITCHENER - CAMBRIDGE - REGION OF WATERLOO
LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY
MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY.

TORNADO WARNING ENDED FOR:
WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY.

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==DISCUSSION==
AT 7:30 PM DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND SPOTTER REPORTS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM
EAST OF WALLACE NEAR LISTOWEL. THIS IS A LONG-TRACKED ROTATING STORM
WHICH HAS PRODUCED TORNADOES FOR CLOSE TO AN HOUR AND A HALF.
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND LARGE HAIL IS ALSO OCCURRING. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF HAIL LARGER THAN TENNIS BALL SIZED. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF HAIL DAMAGE AND SOME TREES DOWN ALONG THE STORM SWATH.
THE TORNADO IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
CONESTOGA LAKE AREA TOWARDS 8:30 PM.

---------------------------

How it could be:

THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA WEATHER OFFICE IN TORONTO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CITY OF CHATHAM-KENT IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 530 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED 8 KM EAST OF WALLACEBURG...MOVING
EAST.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...TUPPERVILLE...DRESDEN...THAMESVILLE...

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

How it was:

TORNADO WARNING
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 5:40 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 18 JULY 2007.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
CHATHAM-KENT - RONDEAU PARK.

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==DISCUSSION==
AT 5:30 P.M. AN ENVIRONMENT CANADA CANWARN WEATHER SPOTTER HAS
NOTICED THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION
EAST OF WALLACEBURG AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LAKE BREEZE FROM LAKE
ERIE. GENERALLY IF A TORNADO DOES FORM FROM THESE TYPES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE BRIEF AND WEAK.

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BRING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 90 KM/H OR GREATER AND LARGE HAIL NEAR 2 CENTIMETERS OR
LARGER IN DIAMETER.

-------------------------------------------------

How it could be:

THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA WEATHER OFFICE IN TORONTO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN OXFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
NORTHERN TOWN OF NORFOLK IN SOUTHEAST ONTARIO

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 100 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR COURTLAND...
MOVING EAST AT 30 KMH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...DELHI...NIXON...SIMCOE...

How it was:

TORNADO WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 1:19 PM EDT THURSDAY 25 JUNE 2009.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
=NEW= WOODSTOCK - TILLSONBURG - OXFORD COUNTY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WARNING FOR:
SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
WOODSTOCK - TILLSONBURG - OXFORD COUNTY.

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==DISCUSSION==
AT 1:00 PM OPP REPORTS A WEAK TORNADO BETWEEN TILSONBURG AND DELHI.
THIS WEAK TORNADO APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE SIMCOE AREA.

------------------------------

How it could be:

THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA WEATHER OFFICE IN TORONTO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR..
SOUTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
CENTRAL REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY OF HALTON IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 100 PM EDT...ENVIRONMENT CANADA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GUELPH...MOVING EAST
AT 50 KMH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MOFFAT...HALTONVILLE...BOSTON...CAMPBELLVILLE...MILTON...


How it was:

TORNADO WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 1:04 PM EDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2009.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= HALTON HILLS - MILTON
=NEW= MISSISSAUGA - BRAMPTON
=NEW= GUELPH - ERIN - SOUTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WARNING FOR:
HALTON HILLS - MILTON
MISSISSAUGA - BRAMPTON
GUELPH - ERIN - SOUTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
WEATHER RADAR SHOW INTENSE THUNDERSTORM CELLS IN THE AREA WITH
TORNADIC SIGNATURES.

------------------------

How it could be:

THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA WEATHER OFFICE IN TORONTO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
...THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEAMINGTON...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 630 PM EDT...ENVIRONMENT CANADA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED 10 KM NORTH OF
HARROW...OR NEAR GESTO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 KMH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE..ELFORD...KLONDYKE...COTTAM...OLINDA...RUTHVEN...KINGSVILLE...
LEAMINGTON...ELMDALE...

How it was:

TORNADO WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 6:35 PM EDT FRIDAY 23 JULY 2010.
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TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - LEAMINGTON - ESSEX COUNTY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WARNING FOR:
WINDSOR - LEAMINGTON - ESSEX COUNTY.
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==DISCUSSION==
AT 6:30 PM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO ABOUT 10 KM
NORTH OF HARROW TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 50 KM/H TOWARDS THE
SHORELINE OF LAKE ERIE.

--------------------------------

How it could be:

THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA WEATHER OFFICE IN TOROTNO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GREY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 640 PM EDT...ENVIRONMENT CANADA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED 5 KM WEST OF
MARKDALE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 KMH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...EUGENIA...ROCK MILLS...FLESHERTON...PORT LAW...WAREHAM...
CEYLON...MAXWELL...OSPREY WETLAND CONSERVATION LANDS...BADJEROS...DUNDALK...

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FLASH FLOODING...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

How it was:

TORNADO WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 6:52 PM EDT SATURDAY 14 AUGUST 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY
=NEW= OWEN SOUND - BLUE MOUNTAINS - NORTHERN GREY COUNTY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WARNING FOR:
HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY
OWEN SOUND - BLUE MOUNTAINS - NORTHERN GREY COUNTY.

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==DISCUSSION==
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SHOWING ROTATION NEAR THE GROUND BASED ON RADAR
IS JUST WEST OF MARKDALE INDICATING A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THE STORM
IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 OR 30 KM/H. WIND GUSTS OVER 120 KM/H
OR HIGHER IN A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE OCCURING WITH THIS
STORM.

Derecho
02-26-2011, 05:50 AM
Could even look like this:

How it could be:


THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA WEATHER OFFICE IN TORONTO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWEST REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY OF YORK IN SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
CITY OF TORONTO IN SOUTHEAST ONTARIO

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

* AT 635 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR WERE
TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO LOCATED OVER
WOODBRIDGE...OR NEAR THE UNIVERSITY OF YORK...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 55 KMH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VAUGHAN...DOWNSVIEW...
FOREST HILL...TORONTO...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. STRONG TO
VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE OCCURRING IN THE ABOVE REGIONS. TAKE SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

How it was:


TORNADO WARNING
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 6:40 PM EDT THURSDAY 20 AUGUST 2009.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= LINDSAY - SOUTHERN KAWARTHA LAKES
VAUGHAN - RICHMOND HILL - MARKHAM
NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION
UXBRIDGE - BEAVERTON - NORTHERN DURHAM REGION.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A TORNADIC STORM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGIONS.
STORM.

obwan
02-26-2011, 09:15 AM
Personally I prefer the first series of warnings, it is direct and doesn't waste words that say nothing like the old warnings did.
Changes that also could be added would be

THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA WEATHER OFFICE IN TORONTO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN OXFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
NORTHERN TOWN OF NORFOLK IN SOUTHEAST ONTARIO

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 100 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR COURTLAND...
MOVING EAST AT 30 KMH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...DELHI...1:14PM ; NIXON... 1:26PM ; SIMCOE... 1:33PM

Giving times to certain communities makes the warning more precise and urgent, with the general warning time for the counties is good as other storms may develop, but that alone may give people a false sense of non-urgency. Like Delhi ,they here 2:00pm and the storm is there in 14 mins not many would be prepared.

Derecho
02-26-2011, 03:40 PM
Personally I prefer the first series of warnings, it is direct and doesn't waste words that say nothing like the old warnings did.
Changes that also could be added would be

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...DELHI...1:14PM ; NIXON... 1:26PM ; SIMCOE... 1:33PM

Giving times to certain communities makes the warning more precise and urgent, with the general warning time for the counties is good as other storms may develop, but that alone may give people a false sense of non-urgency. Like Delhi ,they here 2:00pm and the storm is there in 14 mins not many would be prepared.

Yeah, even the storm tracking software I use has time indicators for where it will be and when. A line develops ahead of each cell on radar with dots at 15 minute intervals. With my one program I have all cities, counties, and lakes programmed into it so you can gauge where the storm will be and when just by using American radar. Also, one program I bought for $80 actually has pathcast built into it.

No idea why we don't have anything similar... and I wonder why our warnings still don't have end times.

Here is an example of the radar I use showing a line of tornadic thunderstorms heading for Huron and Bruce Counties last Summer. The storm tracks are off in this scan, but i gives you an example.
http://i901.photobucket.com/albums/ac218/medusan/waterspout.jpg

davefootball123
02-26-2011, 11:28 PM
I have emailed EC about if, and when they will get storm based warnings. Or at least warnings with the same basic outline. And David Sills said that he is doing research on it

ParkingLot
02-27-2011, 02:13 AM
I like it....that's a cool idea!

on a side note, Derecho, that's a neat program....what is it?

Derecho
02-27-2011, 03:54 PM
I like it....that's a cool idea!

on a side note, Derecho, that's a neat program....what is it?

GRLevel2Analyst. Davefootball uses GRLevel3. GRL2AE is $250 for the license, while GRL3 is only $80 for a license. After install, you can download Canadian shapefiles and placefiles, then use Detroit, Cleveland, and Buffalo radars to track storms over southern Ontario. It's an excellent system. It's all from Gibson Ridge Software.

Here's an example of polling Detroit radar using Canadian shape and placefiles, also with additional pay-per-use add-ons
http://i901.photobucket.com/albums/ac218/medusan/eabie.png

davefootball123
02-27-2011, 08:53 PM
I also have the background for the GR. I use the conus map large

ParkingLot
02-28-2011, 09:09 AM
that is just awesome!