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View Full Version : groundhog day (forecasted storm of Feb.1st/2nd)


obwan
01-29-2011, 03:29 PM
Looks like we could get some snow and no rain this time. However, it may pass too far to our south. I like how the guys at the Buffalo NWS are bored with the weather this winter. The people in Northern Indiana and Ohio are already talking Blizzard on this storm as its packing strong winds as well.

THEN...AFTER TWO MONTHS OF NOTHING BUT NEAR CONSTANT NICKEL AND DIME
LAKE SNOWS...WE HAVE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS WE START THE NEW
MONTH...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TWO THREATS FOR APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL. THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN ONE FOR WED...BUT WE ALSO HAVE A
MORE SUBTLE THREAT FOR TUES MORNING NOW AS WELL.

BAROCLINICITY WILL STRENGTHEN AS 850 MB TEMP ISOTHERMS TIGHTEN UP MON
NT INTO WED...AND A STRONG JET WILL STREAK ACROSS PA ON TUESDAY...
PLACING OUR AREA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW
LATE MON NT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUES. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH
WITH A GOOD 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR CWA...WHILE GFS AND
ECMWF MAX IT OUT ALONG NY-PA BORDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL INCREASE
POPS DRASTICALLY FROM 10 TO 60 FROM ABOUT 10Z-18Z TUES AND WE
COULD SEE A SOLID 1-3/2-4 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...LESSER CHC AND
LOWER AMTS E OF LK ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE RACES OFF TO NEW ENG TUES
AFTERNOON AND WE GET INTO A LULL LATER TUES AND MUCH OF TUES NT
BEFORE THE REAL ACTION BEGINS...

MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A MAJOR STORM LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUES TO NEAR CINCI BY EARLY WED. EVENTUALLY
THIS SYSTEM TRANSFERS TO THE COAST...BUT BOTH GFS AND EC DELAY THIS
PROCESS AND KEEP THE "PRIMARY" LOW THE MAIN PLAYER UP INTO EASTERN
OHIO...WITH ITS POTENT JET STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A SLUG OF 0.5 TO 1
INCH QPF UP ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NY FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 18Z WED. EC
HAS BEEN ON THE HEAVIER SIDE WITH A STRIP OVER VERY HEAVY
QPF...1-1.5 INCH...FROM CHI TO DET TO YYZ AND BUF...BUT GFS LOOK
MORE REALISTIC WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY WARM ADVECTION SNOW WED
MORNING...THEN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT AS A DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
INTO ONTARIO WHILE COASTAL GETS GOING LATER WED AND WED EVE...THEN
SOME WRAPAROUND SWINGS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA WED NT.

THIS IS STILL NOT ETCHED IN STONE AS 12Z GEM KEEP BULK OF SNOW SOUTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MAX PRECIP NEAR NY-PA BORDER (AN INCH) BUT A
SOLID 0.5 TO SOUTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
WARMER MODEL...BUT EVEN THIS IS A BIT COLDER THAN LAST RUN...WITH
850 MB ZERO ISOTHERM JUST TOUCHING OUR SRN TIER FOR AWHILE WED SO A
LITTLE SLEET COULDNT BE RULED OUT.

obwan
01-30-2011, 07:47 AM
here's what their saying in detroit today

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK AS IF SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE PLACED WITHIN A
STRONG AREA OF DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN BETWEEN
850-700MB LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LAYER TO EVEN EXPAND DOWN TO 925 MB. THE ADDITION
OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND VERY STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL
PROVIDE DEEP LAYER LIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW
AT LEAST UP THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (POSSIBLY WEAKENING
IN INTENSITY AS WE LOSE JET SUPPORT)...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AT FIRST GLANCE...PW VALUES ONLY TOPPING
OUT AT 0.5 INCHES WOULD SUGGEST MODEL QPF AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF ONE
INCH ARE OVERDONE. HOWEVER...FURTHER ANALYSIS USING CROSS-SECTIONS
AND TIME-HEIGHTS SHOWS MOISTURE MAY BE CENTERED IN AN AREA OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHERE IT WILL REACH ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL. GFS/NAM SHOW
THE HIGHEST VALUES OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY (NOW UP TO 4 G/KG) CENTERED
WITHIN AND JUST ABOVE THE STRONG FGEN LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST
LIFT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WITHIN AND JUST BELOW STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES...AND ALSO LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
WITH THIS HIGH OF A DEGREE OF MOISTURE QUALITY...WENT WITH A GENERAL
8 TO 12 INCH ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS CONSERVATIVE GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT
AND HPC FORECAST WHICH HAVE TOTALS BETWEEN 18-24 INCHES. NORMALLY
NOT COMFORTABLE WITH A WATCH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT GIVEN
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND COORDINATION WITH HPC AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WE FELT THIS EVENT WAS WORTHY. IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A STRONG CORE OF NORTHEAST WINDS (AS HIGH
AS 50-60 KNOTS) FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB LOOKS TO CENTER
ITSELF OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
NOT 100 PERCENT CONFIDENT WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 35 MPH MIXING DOWN
DESPITE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DRAG. IF WINDY CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...IT WILL CREATE ADDITION PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING
SNOW...LOW VISIBILITIES...AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO. THIS STORM
CERTAINLY BEARS VERY CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND ADJUSTMENT TO SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

davefootball123
01-30-2011, 12:15 PM
WOW 18-24 inches on one model. I think that is a little high but i could deffenitley see 25-30cm for us looking at the GFS

davefootball123
01-30-2011, 12:57 PM
I have my discussion up on my site now http://www.southernontarioweather.ca/winter-weather-outlooks.php
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/45111/significant-storm-by-wednesday.asp
Also a snow squall could form off lake ontario monday night into tuesday morning bringing mabye 5-10cm to Oakville Hamilton Niagara before the main storm by about 12-18 hours

Derecho
01-30-2011, 03:01 PM
Looks like majority of us will miss out on anything good. The track is still too far south for an epic snow event for southern Ontario. I feel EC's estimate of 20-30cm is a little too generous, especially for areas north of Lake Erie. 5-15cm looks most probable with the current track north of a line from south of Sarnia to London to Brantford to Grimsby.

davefootball123
01-30-2011, 03:34 PM
I dont agree with that. The current GFS takes it through Central PA then through new york state as well as the euro. A good 20+ for hamilton and niagara. there is a posibility of 18 inches around fort wayne indiana

ontariolightning
01-30-2011, 08:33 PM
20-30 cm is too conservative, for SW Ontario..London, Sarnia, Windsor will be getting 40-50 cm with widespread blowing snow

davefootball123
01-30-2011, 09:16 PM
50 is really pushing it. 30-40 quite possible. Hamilton may even see a 30+ snowfall because of lake enhancment. But 50cm is a little much. Back in march 08 i beleive I measured snow in my yard that wasnt drift and it was 72cm. That was with lake enhancment and all that. It was an epic storm. Not so much wind though

obwan
01-30-2011, 09:39 PM
latest from buffalo

AN AVERAGE OF MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW
COULD FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER AIR NORTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY...BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS
COULD EXCEED ONE HALF INCH IF THE LATEST TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
QPF FORECASTS COME TO FRUITION

ontariolightning
01-30-2011, 10:22 PM
50 is really pushing it. 30-40 quite possible. Hamilton may even see a 30+ snowfall because of lake enhancment. But 50cm is a little much. Back in march 08 i beleive I measured snow in my yard that wasnt drift and it was 72cm. That was with lake enhancment and all that. It was an epic storm. Not so much wind though

i doubt we'll even know how much we got due to the heavy blowing snow that will occur

Derecho
01-30-2011, 10:27 PM
I dont agree with that. The current GFS takes it through Central PA then through new york state as well as the euro. A good 20+ for hamilton and niagara. there is a posibility of 18 inches around fort wayne indiana

Fort Wayne, Indiana a good distance from anywhere in southern Ontario. A one foot maximum is most likely in extreme southwest Ontario as indicated by NWS DTX and most weather models. The farther northeast you go, forecast accumulations become less and less as the precip shield thins out.

Also, NWS BUF's mention of 1-2 feet of snow is mainly for areas that are less than or equal to the latitude of southwest Ontario and areas south of London.

I'm still maintaining my opinion of general snowfall amounts of 2-6" for areas north of London, with locally higher amounts up to 8". I am playing it conservative this time around. Especially so since the latest model runs have either underperformed, overperformed, and had major shifts in the track of this upcoming low.

ontariolightning
01-30-2011, 11:12 PM
this is right across the river from me

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Algonac&state=MI&site=DTX&lat=42.6185&lon=-82.5394

Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 23. North northeast wind between 10 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tuesday Night: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Blustery, with a northeast wind between 17 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow and widespread blowing snow. High near 20. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Widespread blowing snow. Cloudy during the early evening, then becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 6.

9 - 15 inches = almost 23 centimetres - 38.1 centimetres...the question is, do i take NWS word for it over EC?...NWS is always more accurate than EC, I never pay attention to EC forcasts because they're not that good of an organization...no one in the world imo are better than the americans at predicting weather

EC will always downplay an event until the last second

davefootball123
01-30-2011, 11:23 PM
9 - 15 inches = almost 23 centimetres - 38.1 centimetres...the question is, do i take NWS word for it over EC?...NWS is always more accurate than EC, I never pay attention to EC forcasts because they're not that good of an organization...no one in the world imo are better than the americans at predicting weather

EC will always downplay an event until the last secondLOL. I wonder why they have such a good weather service. HMMM all the severe weather mabye lol

ontariolightning
01-30-2011, 11:30 PM
9 - 15 inches = almost 23 centimetres - 38.1 centimetres...the question is, do i take NWS word for it over EC?...NWS is always more accurate than EC, I never pay attention to EC forcasts because they're not that good of an organization...no one in the world imo are better than the americans at predicting weather

EC will always downplay an event until the last secondLOL. I wonder why they have such a good weather service. HMMM all the severe weather mabye lol

better equipment 'cause they're more funded would be my guess...i've had tornadic storms right in my backyard without so much as warnings or a mention by EC..I sent them the pictures after and not once have they sent me an email back
so yeah I have no confidence in environment canada

ontariolightning
01-30-2011, 11:36 PM
have you been following the thread on accuweather?

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25176&st=2940

Derecho
01-31-2011, 01:09 AM
The latest SREF run is looking... well... amazing for southern Ontario. We're talking decent snowfall totals of nearly 30cm for many areas. Yikes... not buying it.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2011013021/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f069.gif

Derecho
01-31-2011, 09:58 AM
K, I'm starting to get a little excited now.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2011013109/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f057.gif

Derecho
01-31-2011, 10:18 AM
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:47 AM EST MONDAY 31 JANUARY 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF TORONTO
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
=NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= NIAGARA
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
=NEW= HALTON - PEEL
=NEW= YORK - DURHAM
=NEW= HURON - PERTH
=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
=NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
=NEW= KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD.

..MAJOR WINTER SNOWSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND WILL TRACK TOWARDS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER THE HEAVIER SNOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
20 TO 30 CM ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION STRONG AND GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE SNOW.
THIS WILL CAUSE LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. THE EAST
WINDS WILL ALSO GENERATE LOCAL SNOW SQUALLS OFF LAKE ONTARIO IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA WHICH WILL GIVE ENHANCED SNOW AMOUNTS
TO REGIONS NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON FOR THE
TORONTO AREA, AND THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF THE SEASON FOR MANY
REGIONS OUTSIDE THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS. THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAKING FOR EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
CHANGE PLANS ACCORDINGLY TO AVOID TRAVEL DURING THE STORM.
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE NEAR-PARALYZING CONDITIONS.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA CONTINUES TO MONITOR THIS DANGEROUS WINTER STORM
AND WILL ISSUE FURTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS NECESSARY.

DarkSky
01-31-2011, 12:06 PM
According to the map, hardest hit areas look to be Niagara and Sarnia areas. :( Unfortunately I don't look forward to winter storms as I do summer ones. 'Means I have to shovel snow for hours on end, wake up early to shovel and clear snow off truck, drive to work in mess of roads, etc.. 'Wishing I'd gone with the 4x4 model :(

davefootball123
01-31-2011, 12:16 PM
Just Checked latest GFS and SREF models. Looking great for almost everyone in southern ontario. :D

davefootball123
01-31-2011, 12:56 PM
Looks like thundersnow is quite a possibility here. There will be a squall line of severe weather down in the mid south. The squall line will be negativley tilted curling back into the low were the heaviest snow will be north and north west of the low. Means we could see some thundersnow if there is enough advection

obwan
01-31-2011, 04:47 PM
latest from buffalo,yes davefootball you're right they too are predicting thundersnow and even give a timeframe. I see a snow band starting to form along the south side of lake ontario if this starts moving ashore tonight that would really boost our snow totals. Dave did you get any snow in hamilton today??

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE ODDS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE VERY HIGH. HOWEVER THE STORM IS
STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF US AND SLIGHT CHANGES IN
TRACK AND INTENSITY COULD HAVE BIG EFFECTS ON THE RESULTING SNOWFALL
FROM THE SYSTEM. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE
SWATH OF SNOWFALL WILL OVERSPREAD WNY LATE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
AS MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE THAT
CONTRIBUTES TO AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP LAYER OF VERTICAL MOTION. FOR
THAT REASON, WE ARE EVEN INTRODUCING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSNOW IN
THE WEDNESDAY 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR REGION.

SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME HEAVIEST RIGHT BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WRAP A BIT OF WARM AIR
INTO ITS CORE AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND WE HAVE REFLECTED THAT
POTENTIAL BY INTRODUCING A MIX OF SLEET FOR A PERIOD OF TIME NEAR
THE STATE LINE AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, THE
TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND INTENSITY OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE ABOUT 3
HOURS LATER AND SNOWFALL WILL DROP OFF A BIT AS YOU GET NORTH OF
WATERTOWN.

THE SNOWFALL WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY STRONG NE WINDS (NOT TYPICAL FOR
OUR PART OF THE WORLD) GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH CREATING NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FROM BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

davefootball123
01-31-2011, 05:07 PM
Yes i got about 5cm. Also just wanted to mention Blizzard warnings from Chicago down south into the mid west plains. Winterstorm warnings everywere else. My final snow total prediction is on my site http://www.southernontarioweather.ca/winter-weather-outlooks.php. Looks like 40cm is possible in areas.
EDIT: EC has Hamilton for 10 tonight 10 tomorrow 15-25 tomorrow night then they dont have wednesday yet. So looks like my and stormchasers prediction may be a good one :D

Derecho
01-31-2011, 10:07 PM
SREF isn't a very good tool to use for winter weather, but wow... this is well overdone IMO.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2011013121/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f045.gif

Derecho
02-01-2011, 02:23 PM
WWCN11 CWTO 011928
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:28 PM EST TUESDAY 1 FEBRUARY 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR:
CITY OF TORONTO
WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
SARNIA - LAMBTON
ELGIN
LONDON - MIDDLESEX
SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
OXFORD - BRANT
NIAGARA
CITY OF HAMILTON
HALTON - PEEL
YORK - DURHAM
HURON - PERTH
WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD.

MAJOR WINTER STORM TONIGHT INTO GROUNDHOG DAY.

LIGHT SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING STORM. MOST LOCALES RECEIVED
A CENTIMETRE OR TWO. IT HAS NOW TAPERED OFF TO ISOLATED
FLURRIES.

LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES ARE ALSO COMING ONSHORE INTO THE HAMILTON
AREA TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL FEW CENTIMETRES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY
IN AND AROUND THE HAMILTON AREA BY TONIGHT. THE RISK OF A
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY DUE TO THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE LOW CLOUD FROM THE LAKE.

HEAVY SNOW FROM THE DEVELOPING STORM WILL ARRIVE IN
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST
TO THE GREATER TORONTO AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 30 CM ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND IN THE
AFTERNOON FARTHER EAST.

IN ADDITION STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN BLOWING
SNOW..RESULTING IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE SNOW MAY CHANGE TO ICE PELLETS AND FREEZING RAIN FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR REGIONS NEAR LAKE ERIE.

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON FOR THE
TORONTO AREA..AND THE STRONGEST STORM OF THE SEASON FOR MANY
REGIONS OUTSIDE THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS. THE HEAVY SNOWFALL
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAKING FOR
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THIS MAJOR WINTER STORM IS QUITE LARGE IN SIZE AND WILL HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT ON TRAVEL ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS IS A WARNING THAT DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR:
DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY
HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY
OWEN SOUND - BLUE MOUNTAINS - NORTHERN GREY COUNTY
BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
KALADAR - BANNOCKBURN - BON ECHO PARK
BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
CITY OF OTTAWA
GATINEAU
PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE.

WINTER STORM THREATENING OVERNIGHT AND GROUNDHOG DAY.

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM THE WINTER STORM APPROACHING FROM
TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THESE REGIONS ON WEDNESDAY..WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM IS OVER ARKANSAS AND IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL LIKELY CROSS NORTHERN OHIO OVERNIGHT THEN
INTO NEW YORK STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MAJOR WINTER STORMS ORIGINATING IN
TEXAS USUALLY HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IN AREAS ON THE
COLD..OR NORTH SIDE..OF THEIR TRACK..WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OFTEN REACHING 30 CM. THIS WINTER STORM IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE PREPARED TO CHANGE PLANS ACCORDINGLY TO AVOID
UNNECESSARY TRAVEL DURING THE STORM AS TRAVELLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
DANGEROUS AT TIMES. IF DRIVING IS NECESSARY, MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN
EMERGENCY KIT. AND IF YOUR CAR GETS STUCK, REMAIN CALM AND STAY IN
YOUR CAR.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA CONTINUES TO MONITOR THIS DANGEROUS WINTER STORM
AND WILL ISSUE FURTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS NECESSARY.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/OSPC

Derecho
02-01-2011, 03:01 PM
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR:
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= ST. CATHARINES - GRIMSBY - NORTHERN NIAGARA REGION
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MAJOR STORM WHICH WAS BORN IN TEXAS LATE MONDAY IS
APPROACHING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSIVE SWATH
OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION. HEAVY SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST
TO THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE AROUND MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 30 CM ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE SNOW
BEGINS TO LIGHTEN UP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HAMILTON TO ST. CATHARINES CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 40 GUSTING TO 60 OR 70
KM/H WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW, CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

NOTE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA FOR ONTARIO WAS
CHANGED JUNE 2010 TO REMOVE COLD WIND CHILL REQUIREMENTS. THE
NEW CRITERIA REQUIRES A VISIBILITY OF 400 METRES OR LESS IN
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF
40 KM/H FOR AT LEAST FOUR HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN MORE
BLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE.

THIS IS THE FIRST WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN
ONTARIO SINCE MARCH 1993, DURING THE 'STORM OF THE CENTURY'.

THIS IS A WARNING THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.

DarkSky
02-02-2011, 12:03 AM
Hmph. I was expecting a lot more than this. Just drove home at midnight from work (afternoon shift) and it wasn't bad. And according to radar we're in the middle of it right now. Looks like the majority of it is passing to the south of us though, down into Pennsylvania and going towards the New England states.

Derecho
02-02-2011, 12:19 AM
Stormfail, it's occluded. Nice dry slot covering much of SW Ontario advancing northeast around 70kmh.

Derecho
02-02-2011, 11:56 AM
Looks like majority of us will miss out on anything good. The track is still too far south for an epic snow event for southern Ontario. I feel EC's estimate of 20-30cm is a little too generous, especially for areas north of Lake Erie. 5-15cm looks most probable with the current track north of a line from south of Sarnia to London to Brantford to Grimsby.

:whistling:

davefootball123
02-02-2011, 12:17 PM
Good call. I saw about 20-25 here.

obwan
02-02-2011, 07:04 PM
Looks as though the main precipitation band shifted further north with the Wiarton to Collingwood to Newmarket area receiving Thundersnow. Here in Thorold we received about 20cm as of now 7:30pm 4cm of which consists of snow grains and ice pellets. We are still experiencing some moderate periods of snow very fluffy dry stuff. On the ground as of now we have 44cm. If nothing else, this storm encouraged some good debate.

davefootball123
02-02-2011, 07:28 PM
had some thundersnow here last night no joke. I counted 4 flashes and 2 thunders(other 2 were drowned out by the wind)

Derecho
02-02-2011, 07:40 PM
WINDSOR AIRPORT 21
LONDON AIRPORT 19 (ESTIMATE)
SARNIA 15 (ESTIMATE AS OF NOON)
HAMILTON (WEST MOUNTAIN) 28 (ESTIMATE)
DUNDAS 25
BURLINGTON/ANCASTER/WATERDOWN 23 (ESTIMATE)
THOROLD 28
FERGUS 15
BALACLAVA (NE OF OWEN SOUND) 18 (AS OF 7 AM)
WIARTON 23
ORILLIA 19
COLDWATER (NW OF ORILLIA) 20
SHANTY BAY (NEAR BARRIE) 13 (AS OF 7 AM)
ASHBURN (N OF WHITBY) 20
TORONTO 13-17
BRAMPTON 19
TRENTON 17
BRIGHTON 15
PETERBOROUGH 12 (AS OF NOON)
CORNWALL 20 (ESTIMATE)
CASSELMAN (E OF OTTAWA) 20
OTTAWA AIRPORT 11
GATINEAU 10

WIND GUSTS (KM/H)

LONG POINT 118
ERIEAU (SE OF CHATHAM) 83
PORT WELLER (NEAR ST. CATHARINES) 84
BURLINGTON 84
WINDSOR 78
LONDON 68
TORONTO ISLAND 67