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View Full Version : Jan.14-18.11 Storm Discussion


Derecho
01-14-2011, 04:57 PM
Well, we're on the Eve of a Clipper which looks to bring generally 10cm of snow across southern Ontario, with higher amounts possible in a few locales. Feel free to post your observations or thoughts on these two events.

The CMC is indicating some decent snowfall totals for much of us:
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2011011412/I_nw_r1_EST_2011011412_025.png



Then, Mon-Tues a low pressure system that is developing on the Plains is setting its aim at southern Ontario bringing possibly one of our most decent snow events of the season so far. But, updated models are not looking to "happy" and we may end up like New Years where we were stuck on the warm-side of the low so we received mostly rain.



I don't have time to post much more than that, I am working for basically the next 24 hours straight. I'll try to pop in tonight with thoughts on the 00z model run, then again tomorrow evening at some point.

Good luck with the clipper tomorrow, everyone :whistling:

Derecho
01-16-2011, 04:04 PM
Here we go! Environment Canada's latest special weather statement regarding the second system affecting us tomorrow night through Tuesday. The clipper yesterday brought 5cm to my location.


----
It's not looking too good for most of us. Could be a rain/freezing rain event with little snow accumulation. The latest CMC runs are not looking good for everyone south of a line from Port Elgin to Barrie to Ottawa.

A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PRAIRIES AND MID
WESTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A COMBINATION OF SNOW..RAIN..AND
FREEZING RAIN.

INDICATIONS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THAT THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PARTS MONDAY EVENING AND SPREAD TO THE NORTHERN PARTS
OVERNIGHT AND OVER ALL REGIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES, WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL SPREAD IN AND RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PARTS. AS A RESULT, THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EASTERN PARTS ON
TUESDAY. DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN, FREEZING RAIN AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATION, TIMING AND DURATION OF THE
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LAST A NUMBER OF
HOURS IN SOME LOCALES BEFORE THE COLD AIR IS FLUSHED OUT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AREAS FROM SARNIA TO TORONTO AND
NORTHEAST TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY COULD ALL BE AFFECTED AT SOME POINT BY
FREEZING RAIN. AREAS FURTHER NORTH, WHERE THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
AS ALL SNOW.. HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE UP TO 15 CM OF THE WHITE
STUFF FROM THIS SYSTEM.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND WILL
ISSUE ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS NECESSARY.

davefootball123
01-16-2011, 05:28 PM
Looking at some models.. there could be some freezing rain associated with the storm from the southwest through about hamilton to toronto.

Derecho
01-16-2011, 10:00 PM
Looking at some models.. there could be some freezing rain associated with the storm from the southwest through about hamilton to toronto.

Yeah, especially as the changeover to rain occurs then when the changeover from rain to snow occurs. Looking like minor accumulations, though.

Amazing how quickly this turned into the projected storm-that-could-be to the storm-that-was. :cry: Is a decent "just like old times" snowstorm that hard to ask for?

obwan
01-16-2011, 10:16 PM
Minus the sublimation and compression we have 25cm on the ground in thorold,about equal to what we had before christmas. Unfortunately it looks as though we will loose much of it on tuesday. The good side is that despite the warm weather the precipitation looks to be on the light side scattered showers. Beyond that, we move into the coldest weather this winter, the lake effect machine off huron and georgian bay should be working overtime.

davefootball123
01-16-2011, 10:44 PM
i have 29cm on the ground currently :D, looks like much of it will wither away. Anyway i hear that this winter may be back end loaded with snow storms. Lets hope

DarkSky
01-17-2011, 03:16 PM
Grr. Yesterday they said we'd get a high of -1 today, and +6 tomorrow. Right now it's -8, and tomorrows forecast is now +3. I'm sure by tomorrow, the forecast for the day will be -1.

... wish I had a job I could continually screw up at and still stay employed :) :)

Derecho
01-17-2011, 04:03 PM
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:18 PM EST MONDAY 17 JANUARY 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

FREEZING RAIN WARNING FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= HURON - PERTH.

..FREEZING RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING..

THIS IS A WARNING THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO ON TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A COMBINATION OF
SNOW, FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN.

PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK.

MOTORISTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY AS UNTREATED ROADS COULD
BE SLIPPERY IN FREEZING RAIN.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/OSPC

obwan
01-17-2011, 06:18 PM
What gets me about EC's warnings and advisories is at the end it says (PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.)

Since public forecasts are only issued twice a day, wouldn't you think a warning or advisory would be more detailed and site specific since it is intermediary to the local forecast. Ive seen severe thunderstorms on days the forecast was for sunshine how do you get further information out of that???

Derecho
01-17-2011, 09:11 PM
Grr. Yesterday they said we'd get a high of -1 today, and +6 tomorrow. Right now it's -8, and tomorrows forecast is now +3. I'm sure by tomorrow, the forecast for the day will be -1.

... wish I had a job I could continually screw up at and still stay employed :) :)

It's not the individual forecasters fault, he is just relaying what the latest model runs indicate!

Occupational hazards
;)

Derecho
01-19-2011, 02:34 AM
Big time BUST! Looks like I jinxed it :whistling:

Maybe I won't mention the upcoming winter storm prospects for southern Ontario. Oops

Smokin Joe
01-19-2011, 09:01 AM
Oh well don't worry I'd rather read about potential storms than no storms at all....it's Murphy's law in full affect, next time you don't post your forecast for a storm, it'll happen just as you predicted down to the cm and you'll say damn i should have posted that lol.......

Now storm chasers is on tv up here i'm already starting to dream about summer anyways........i'm done with winter i wish it was march already...