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davefootball123
12-22-2010, 02:44 PM
Hey Guys, Just wanted to post my findings. The latest model run of the GFS indicates a very strong low over Iowa on January 1st originating off the the coast of washington state but rapidly intensifying over the rockies near colorado around december 30th to 31st. Current Indications are that we would be in the warm area of the low with temps above freezing. However you have to remember this is 10 days out and many things can change in this time frame. The low looks to be at about 965-970 mb on this run. This low deffenitly bears watching. I will check the ECMWF and other models later and post my findings.

davefootball123
12-22-2010, 02:52 PM
Models are deffinetly out in the air on this one but thats expected with it being this far out. :p, The ECMWF puts the low a little farther east giving us a better chance at snow. Earlier runs of the GFS also hinted at this. The track looks to be through the Great lakes but the tempratures and how far east its going is the big question that will be answerd next week.

davefootball123
12-22-2010, 06:07 PM
Just another update. Tempratures look to be around the freezing mark around the Golden Horseshoe

davefootball123
12-23-2010, 11:19 AM
Looking at the GFS and the GEFS. It looks as many areas in Southern Ontario could start as snow then change over to a mix then rain. This could be our January thaw. Some areas may experience freezing rain possibley for a long period but the storms is to far out to tell just how much.

Smokin Joe
12-23-2010, 01:23 PM
well it's nice that there is at least a chance, however small, cause i'm getting pretty damn bored with this weather...

keep the updates coming one way or the other Dave.....hopefully it pans out

davefootball123
12-24-2010, 12:30 PM
New GFS 0z run tracks the low down into texas through arkansas then straight up illinois and basicly hugs the shore of lake michigan as it moves northward. Current indications still keep us in the warm sector of the low. Looks like anywhere from ottawa to port elgin and southward will be above freezing for a period of time, still to far out to tell how long though. Areas may breifly start as snow then change to a mix and possibly a period of freezing rain (mabye prolonged in some areas). Then to rain and of course back to snow on the back side of the low. If the low tracks farther east and south as the new model run has indicated compared to the last ones. Areas further south may experience more snow. And when i say above freezing i dont mean like 10 degrees above freezing i mean like 1-3 degrees.

davefootball123
12-24-2010, 12:54 PM
Here is what NWS Buffalo has to say.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOOD THE COUNTRY AND SEND MERCURY READINGS TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS. THE WARM UP WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL LATE DEC TEMPS
ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN READINGS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 40 ACROSS SOME
AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING THE NAEFS/ECMWF AND GEFS WERE IN FINE
AGREEMENT. SOME DETAILS...

A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
DAMPEN OUT ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL SEND H85
TEMPS TO ABOUT -2C BY DAYS END.

THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. H85 TEMPS WILL FINALLY CLIMB TO NEAR ZERO C WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING.

ENERGY POURING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE FAR WEST...WHILE ELEVATED HGTS WITHIN A
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE
RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND H85 TEMPS TO ABOUT +4C...
WHICH IS THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN AT THAT LEVEL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT...VERY MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER OUR
REGION IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO NEW YEARS. A CLASSIC `CUTTER`
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THE TEXAS/OK PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN CUT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A SUB 1000MB
LOW WILL LIKELY PASS TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...KEEPING US MILD RIGHT
UP TO NEW YEARS EVE.

Derecho
12-24-2010, 09:57 PM
well it's nice that there is at least a chance, however small, cause i'm getting pretty damn bored with this weather...

keep the updates coming one way or the other Dave.....hopefully it pans out

The Greenland Block should be moving out hopefully soon... it's winter 09-10 all over again...

obwan
12-27-2010, 08:15 AM
Look at this from chicago

IT APPEARS SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. CYCLOGENESIS
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN
IMPRESSIVE 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND
TRANSPORT IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF WARM GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS IL.
IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY APPROACH ONE INCH...WHICH
FOR LATE DECEMBER/EARLY JANUARY IS NEAR THE 99 PERCENTILE FOR THE AREA.
CONSIDERING THIS...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THIS WILL BE A VERY
DYNAMIC STORM...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...IT IS
STILL TO EARLY TO TELL IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REACH THIS FAR
NORTH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. BUT GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE STRONG...WE MAY NOT NEED A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY TO GET
SOMETHING GOING.

davefootball123
12-27-2010, 11:39 AM
Hmmmm. And if u look at the track of this storm. That would bring some of to possible storms through us.......

Derecho
12-29-2010, 11:21 PM
Not much discussion from the OSPC about precipitation with the upcoming system...

4. IN THE LONGER RANGE..LOW MOVES NE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NERN
ONTARIO ALONG THE LINE OF A SHARPENING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS WILL
DIVIDE THE PROVINCE WITH A SIGNIFICANT THAW ALONG WITH RAIN EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF NERN/ERN/SRN ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY..AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MORE SNOW NWRN AND FAR NRN ONTARIO AS
ANOTHER LOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS STATES MOVES NE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO NERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. SCRIBE APPEARS TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR SRN/ERN/NERN ONTAIRO
AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THEM DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES PARTICULARLY
NERN AND ERN ONTARIO IN COORDINATION WITH QUEBEC STORM PREDICTION
CENTRE THANKS MAINLY TO DECENT SNOW PACK IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES IN
SNOW-STARVED AREAS INCLUDING TORONTO..HALTON-PEEL..HAMILTON AND
NIAGARA DO LOOK REASONABLE AS ANY SNOW LEFT ON GROUND SHOULD BE
TOAST BY NEW YEARS DAY. THE SHARP ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
BRING THE THAW TO AN END ON NEW YEARS DAY THOUGH..WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FREEZE ISSUES NEW YEARS DAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

obwan
12-31-2010, 07:57 AM
heres the spc convective outlook for today, great day for a tornado outbreak, looks simular to what we saw all summer(lol)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif

davefootball123
12-31-2010, 10:35 AM
LOL. Tornado watch for portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Illinois. I wouldnt be suprised to hear a rumble of thunder today considering that just north of Lansing Michigan is reporting a thunderstorm with heavy rain.