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View Full Version : Upcoming Winter Storms - Wknd of Dec 10 Thru Following Wk


Derecho
12-07-2010, 12:32 AM
A bit early, but other weather forums are abuzz right now with the upcoming potential for a clipper crossing the Great Lakes region later this week followed by a potential major low pressure system. Feel free to drop in and post interpretations and OBS reports. Let's keep this place pumping.

A clipper looks to affect some areas of the Great Lakes by Friday bringing some measurable snow to some. It's still a little early to fantasize on model runs, but as aforementioned, we could be looking at some decent snow totals by the weekend.

Following the clipper, a potential major area of low pressure looks to develop over the central United States then move northeastward towards us then away from us. Depending on which side of the low we fall upon, and where the low positions itself, we could be looking at either a rain event changing over to snow due to being on the warm side initially, or a full blown snow event because we end up on the cold side.

Following this potential major area of low pressure, some are talking about a potentially 'historic' lake effect snow event. The ongoing lake effect snow activity since Saturday across southwest Ontario has been the worst for some in over four years. This upcoming potential could rival the current activity in terms of duration and amount of precipitation being accumulated.

Feel free to post different model runs, thoughts, and OBS reports. We're looking at our first good potential since the winter of 08-09. I'll post some models runs shortly. Awaiting some new runs to be released.

Here's hoping, guys!!! :D

Derecho
12-07-2010, 01:33 PM
The latest GFS continues with this potential major storm. It keeps us on the cold side of the low, so we would most likely see an all snow event were this run to verify. GFS maintains this as a high precipitation event mostly east of a line from St. Thomas/London to Barrie. Especially precipitous on this run over eastern Ontario and the Niagara Peninsula.

The lake effect activity forecast following this storm is just... out of this world. Bands of snow look to set up on the 11th and the GFS continues them until the 20th. That would be nine straight days of lake effect snow activity! That would cripple many areas.

davefootball123
12-07-2010, 06:25 PM
I was looking at the GFS and it is looking to be a very strong lowepresure syetem originating around the upper coast of the Western U.S. It could be a first major snowfall (besides the snow belts). Could see over 20cm in areas. I think its possible to see 30cm if this all pans out

obwan
12-08-2010, 07:21 AM
heres what buffalo says
WITH A 995MB LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR CINCI AT 12Z SUNDAY. THEY
ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO FOCUS ON A PATH UP ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO NW
PA BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH SOME BAGGINESS SUGGESTING TRANSFERRING TOWARD
COAST SUN PM. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST AT THE SFC...BUT WARMER AIR WOULD DEFINITELY
SURGE NORTHWARD ALOFT...AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOW PASSES OUR
LONGITUDE. SO P-TYPE IS VERY COMPLICATED. IT SHOULD START AS
SNOW...GO OVER TO SLEET/FRZG RAIN AND MAYBE RAIN FOR A TIME...THEN
BACK TO SNOW AS LOW PULLS EAST. AS FOR QPF...LOOK FOR A HEALTHY SHOT
INITIALLY...A BIT OF A DRY SLOT...THEN WRAPAROUND SNOW AT END SUN
NT...WITH TOTAL OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH.

If all snow we could be looking 10 to 25 cm
interesting differences in the long range between nws and ec

nws
Monday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy and blustery, with a high near 17(-8). Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy and blustery, with a low around 7(-13.5). Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy and blustery, with a high near 12(-11). Chance of precipitation is 40%.

EC
Monday Cloudy with 70 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 5. High minus 4.
Tuesday A mix of sun and cloud. Low minus 5. High minus 2.

davefootball123
12-08-2010, 03:34 PM
Latest GFS run is still indicating a mostly snow event for Southern Ontario. The areas that may see some mixing would be really close to shore of erie and mabye ontario. The euro is also indicating a nice event for us. Better than the GFS. The GFS puts it a little farther east at this point which would mean less acc. GEM is also indicating a snow event. 20-30cm according to the latest run. Its still to far out to tell but we need to watch it :D

Derecho
12-08-2010, 05:22 PM
Check out the EURO, guys! For 8pm Sunday

*EDIT: Oops, I didn't save the image so it automatically updated. Many models are in agreement right now with developing a storm.

davefootball123
12-08-2010, 06:22 PM
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
Just thought id post a link to the CMC. Looks good.
And also the euro is looking nice however if that far west we could deal with some mixing down my way and towards the shore of the lake erie. But I must say the EURO has been consistent in the past few runs and has the best handle on this storm, the ECMWF has its track from detroit to cornwall. :/ but i beleive thats to far west considering the EURO's been consistent and the GFS has it riding up the coast. EDIT: Looking at the 15z SREF that goes to 0600z Sunday. At that time it has the low over tennessee. That is the 500mb height model btw

Derecho
12-09-2010, 01:23 PM
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
Just thought id post a link to the CMC. Looks good.
And also the euro is looking nice however if that far west we could deal with some mixing down my way and towards the shore of the lake erie. But I must say the EURO has been consistent in the past few runs and has the best handle on this storm, the ECMWF has its track from detroit to cornwall. :/ but i beleive thats to far west considering the EURO's been consistent and the GFS has it riding up the coast. EDIT: Looking at the 15z SREF that goes to 0600z Sunday. At that time it has the low over tennessee. That is the 500mb height model btw

Scary how close it keeps us to the warm side! If we get rain mixed with snow, there could be some serious ice patches on the roads. I'm driving to Sarnia tomorow, then returning Sunday afternoon. I'd rather deal with all snow instead of rain then snow.

The clipper through tomorrow afternoon, we're looking at maximum of 5cm with isolated amounts of 10cm possible. It's already snowing in the Midwest/Upper Lakes region as the low develops and pushes this way. The clipper will be a great sampling of what Saturday/Sundays storm could be!

Also, it should be reiterated that models continue to forecast major lake effect snow activity through next week... essentially pounding the same areas that have received 1-6 feet of LES already this past week.

Smokin Joe
12-09-2010, 01:41 PM
thanks for the updates guys.....keep em coming!!

Derecho
12-09-2010, 04:59 PM
Latest model runs don't look to good.

The HPC has updated the low track to move over Upper Lower Michigan which would keep us in mostly a rain event for the main low. Looking at 24 hr snow total forecasts from the HPC, for all areas south of North Bay precip totals won't even break 4 inches.

Derecho
12-11-2010, 10:40 AM
There is a winter storm watch across the river in St. Clair County, Michigan... but not one in effect here in Lambton County. The NWS in Detroit is calling for up to 10 inches by Monday here.

Here is the current winter storm watch. Should be expanded to include Sarnia and London.


SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 5:05 AM EST SATURDAY 11 DECEMBER 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= CALEDON
=NEW= NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION
=NEW= UXBRIDGE - BEAVERTON - NORTHERN DURHAM REGION
=NEW= HURON - PERTH
=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
=NEW= GREY - BRUCE
=NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
=NEW= PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
=NEW= BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
=NEW= SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE
=NEW= PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
=NEW= HALIBURTON
=NEW= RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY
=NEW= ALGONQUIN
=NEW= BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

..SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY..

obwan
12-11-2010, 05:06 PM
I'll go with rain south of hwy 7
Mix north of 7
Snow north of 9
Highest snowfall in the Kawartha lakes(other than the lake effect monday to wednesday)

Derecho
12-12-2010, 06:22 PM
The university has recorded 12cm so far here in Waterloo. This is a great start to winter!

Derecho
12-13-2010, 11:56 PM
Beautiful... I pulled off 5.5 inches of snow! It's like a winter wonderland out there. Huge snow piles in parking lots, 2 ft snow drifts... blowing snow! All that from just 14cm of snow! Mind you, it's currently -21C with the wind chill. Lovely time of year!


BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS EVENT AS OF 7 AM
TODAY (UNLESS INDICATED OTHERWISE).

-------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (CM SNOW)

BALACLAVA (NE OF OWEN SOUND) 36
COLDWATER (NW OF ORILLIA) 21
MUSKOKA AIRPORT 31
BEATRICE (N OF BRACEBRIDGE) 21
TAPLEY (SW OF PETERBOROUGH) 20
WINDSOR 15
LONDON AIRPORT 18
WATERLOO 14
MOUNT FOREST 16 (AS OF 10 AM TODAY)
WIARTON 30 (AS OF 4 PM TODAY)
BANCROFT 14 (AS OF 10 AM TODAY)
ALGONQUIN PARK 16 (AS OF 10 AM TODAY)