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View Full Version : Oct 26, 2010 Possible Severe?


Smokin Joe
10-25-2010, 11:05 AM
SPC AC 250559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERHOUSE CYCLONE WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NCNTRL
STATES ON TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH SWINGING ENE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND OH/TN VLYS. SUB-970 MB LOW WILL OCCLUDE ALONG THE MN/NW
ONTARIO BORDER WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING E AND S...REACHING A
NY STATE...ERN KY...NRN MS...CNTRL TX LINE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

...CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
RAPID MASS ADJUSTMENTS WILL BEGIN PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG PV-ANOMALY PIVOTS ENE THROUGH THE OH VLY/CNTRL GREAT LAKES
REGION. LLVL WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RESPOND WITH 850 MB SSWLY FLOW OF
60+ KTS TRANSPORTING MODEST MOISTURE WELL-NWD. STEEP PRE-FRONTAL
LLVL LAPSE RATES...AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND
INTENSE/NARROW FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL YIELD ONE OR MORE BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BANDS SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR/JUST E OF THE MID/UPR
MS RVR VLY AT 12Z TUESDAY. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ENE ACROSS THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGION DURING PEAK HEATING WITH
CORRIDORS OF HIGH WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH
LEWPS/BOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES.

FARTHER S IN THE OH/TN VLYS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES/INSTABILITY
WILL BE COMPARATIVELY HIGHER/STRONGER ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. HERE...THE SRN EDGE OF THE LINEAR MCS MAY BE
JOINED BY SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AMIDST STRONG LLVL SRH. THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HIGH WIND RISK.

ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AND KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG SRN EDGE OF THE EJECTING
TROUGH. NONETHELESS...VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS WEAKLY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING WHERE DEEP
LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED THE
CNTRL GULF COAST REGION IN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK.
..RACY.. 10/25/2010


a nice storm tomorrow will be sweet if it happens.......

Derecho
10-25-2010, 01:07 PM
We've been put under an MDT:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND MUCH OF
INDIANA...KENTUCKY AND OHIO...WHERE A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS...

Derecho
10-25-2010, 02:06 PM
That low pressure system moving towards is almost one for the record books :eek: .

Things are going to get really interesting in the next 48 hours with the wind, rain, and severe weather. Winds at 850mb could be at 80 knots, with about 40 knots at 1000mb. Serious damaging wind potential tomorrow evening. Hence the moderate risk.

Derecho
10-25-2010, 02:18 PM
That low pressure system moving towards is almost one for the record books :eek: .

Things are going to get really interesting in the next 48 hours with the wind, rain, and severe weather. Winds at 850mb could be at 80 knots, with about 40 knots at 1000mb. Serious damaging wind potential tomorrow evening. Hence the moderate risk.


FORECAST DISCUSSION: As the National Weather Service has noted, the second
most powerful storm system ever to hit the Midwest and Great Lakes states
is developing now int he Plains, and will rapidly intensify and move
northeastward into Minnesota tonight, intensifying very rapidly as it does
so. This will pull warm, moist air northward from the Gulf, and produce a
squall line of severe thunderstorms from eastern Iowa and western
Wisconsin to eastern Missouri tonight, and then move across the eastern
Great Lakes and Ohio valley tomorrow, producing mostly straight-line
damaging winds. But then, as the low pressure center drops to 28.30" of
mercury, the extreme pressure gradient will produce damaging winds
within 200 miles around the low pressure track. This places areas
along and north of I-80 in the zone for winds to exceed 55 MPH, and thus
high wind criteria, tomorrow afternoon and then again on Wednesday
as the system continues to intensify and lift northeastward across
Lake Superior.

ontariolightning
10-25-2010, 02:31 PM
Possible Derecho indeed. The wind will likely knock whatever leaves that are still on the trees.
If this is going to be the 2nd most powerful storm up here I wonder what the first is.
Is it the White Hurricane from 1913? can't be that one as the Lowest pressure there was 968.5 mb (28.60 inches)
okay it was the blizzard of 1978,

The 28.28 inches (958 millibars) barometric pressure measurement recorded in Cleveland, Ohio remains the lowest non-tropical atmospheric pressure ever recorded in the mainland United States.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1978

current; from detroit

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE...29.10 INCHES...WILL MOVE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS MORNING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT...DEEPENING TO 28.60 INCHES. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AND DEEPEN TO
28.30 INCHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=LCZ460&warncounty=marine&firewxzone=&local_place1=6NM+S+New+Baltimore+MI&product1=Storm+Watch

davefootball123
10-25-2010, 03:28 PM
check out www.southernontarioweather.ca for the full story

Derecho
10-25-2010, 06:05 PM
Here is a comparable event on Oct 18, 2007
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2007/day1otlk_20071018_2000.html

Severe outcome:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/071018_rpts.html

davefootball123
10-25-2010, 06:14 PM
Here is a comparable event on Oct 18, 2007
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2007/day1otlk_20071018_2000.html

Severe outcome:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/071018_rpts.html

WOWOWOWOWOWO. and u gotta remember the risk is a tad farther east. Making us in 30%. Also it looks a little like October 24th 2001
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-October_2007_tornado_outbreak
Only down side to what derecho posted was that i was looking at the archived radar loops and it died at london and KW Hamilton and Niagara got some rain with thunder with the balk being south and west

Derecho
10-25-2010, 06:46 PM
WOWOWOWOWOWO. and u gotta remember the risk is a tad farther east. Making us in 30%. Also it looks a little like October 24th 2001
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-October_2007_tornado_outbreak
Only down side to what derecho posted was that i was looking at the archived radar loops and it died at london and KW Hamilton and Niagara got some rain with thunder with the balk being south and west

I looked back to Oct 19 07 warnings, only a severe tstorm watch was issued for SW ON. No other watches or warnings. Interesting to note Oct 18 early morning hours exhibited dense fog across southern Ontario. We've been having dense fog this morning and possibly again tonight. :whistling:

Derecho
10-25-2010, 07:01 PM
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1030 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

HOW THE UPCOMING CYCLONE RANKS AMONG OTHER NOTABLE CYCLONES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.

RANK EVENT DATE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

1. GREAT OHIO BLIZZARD 1/26/1978 950 HPA /28.05 IN/

2. UPCOMING EVENT 10/26-27/2010 959 HPA* /28.35 IN/

3. ARMISTICE DAY STORM 11/11/1940 967 HPA /28.55 IN/
ANNIVERSARY STORM 11/10/1998 967 HPA /28.55 IN/

4. CYCLONE OF 1913 11/7-9/1913 968 HPA /28.60 IN/
/AKA WHITE HURRICANE/

5. EDMUND FITZGERALD STORM 11/10/1975 980 HPA /28.95 IN/


* AVERAGE AMONG SEVERAL CURRENT FORECAST MODELS


$$
MERZLOCK

DarkSky
10-26-2010, 01:55 PM
I've got to head to work at 4pm - can I ask a favor of you guys??

Just for my 2010 storm stats - when (or, "IF") the storms come through Niagara, can someone record the time they first heard thunder, as well as the echo tops of the clouds? (the clouds that pass over Niagara that is) Echo tops can be found here: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Summary.aspx?location=USNY1642

I'd hate to put all the effort into recording tstorm stats and miss one :)

Derecho
10-26-2010, 02:14 PM
I've got to head to work at 4pm - can I ask a favor of you guys??

Just for my 2010 storm stats - when (or, "IF") the storms come through Niagara, can someone record the time they first heard thunder, as well as the echo tops of the clouds? (the clouds that pass over Niagara that is) Echo tops can be found here: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Summary.aspx?location=USNY1642

I'd hate to put all the effort into recording tstorm stats and miss one :)

Will try my best

Derecho
10-26-2010, 05:11 PM
I've got to head to work at 4pm - can I ask a favor of you guys??

Just for my 2010 storm stats - when (or, "IF") the storms come through Niagara, can someone record the time they first heard thunder, as well as the echo tops of the clouds? (the clouds that pass over Niagara that is) Echo tops can be found here: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Summary.aspx?location=USNY1642

I'd hate to put all the effort into recording tstorm stats and miss one :)

515pm
13,000 feet
No thunder.
KBUF severe warned it for Buffalo with 60 mph winds.

obwan
10-26-2010, 06:06 PM
barometer 99.6kpa in thorold, gust to 48mph at my house in town

Derecho
10-26-2010, 07:52 PM
Well, at least this low pressure has broken the record for the most powerful non-tropical low in North America. Something to feel good about... I suppose.

DarkSky
10-27-2010, 12:30 AM
Booooo! (no tstorms)

Heavy rain on my lunch break...


000
NWUS51 KBUF 262358
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
758 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM TSTM WND GST 3 WSW BUFFALO 42.87N 78.91W
10/26/2010 M46.00 MPH LEZ041 NY C-MAN STATION

0542 PM TSTM WND DMG TONAWANDA 42.98N 78.88W
10/26/2010 ERIE NY BROADCAST MEDIA

METAL ROOF FROM GARAGE BLOWN OFF AND CARRIED OVER A
HOUSE...LANDING ON A TRUCK. RELAYED BY WKBW-TV.

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG CHEEKTOWAGA 42.91N 78.75W
10/26/2010 ERIE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TRAFFIC SIGNAL BLOWN DOWN AT GEORGE URBAN BLVD AND UNION.


0545 PM TSTM WND DMG TONAWANDA 42.98N 78.88W
10/26/2010 ERIE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

LIGHTPOLE BLOWN DOWN ON ELMWOOD AVE

0600 PM TSTM WND DMG CELORON 42.10N 79.28W
10/26/2010 CHAUTAUQUA NY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

LARGE TREE DOWN

0603 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S ROYALTON CENTER 43.13N 78.54W
10/26/2010 NIAGARA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN NEAR BUNKER HILL ROAD

0628 PM TSTM WND DMG NEW ALBION 42.29N 78.89W
10/26/2010 CATTARAUGUS NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 TREE DOWN