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Derecho
09-06-2010, 03:49 AM
Southern Ontario is under the risk of severe thunderstorms for Tuesday with a cold front associated with a low pressure system.

While not mentioned in the SPC day 2... there appears to be an apparent threat for a tornado according to the 21z SREF.

...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION/SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH A NARROW/MODESTLY MOIST WARM
SECTOR ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE MEAGER WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS...GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY...MAINLY TUESDAY MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET.

Derecho
09-06-2010, 08:22 PM
Looks like a couple broken lines of thunderstorms could develop late afternoon back towards Lake Huron then progress eastward through the evening. Highest parameters of severe thunderstorm development are between 5-8pm according to the SREF east of a line from Barrie to KW to Point Pelee.

Localized damaging wind threat by the looks of things, possibly small hail. Tornado parameters aren't as pronounced as last night, but perhaps an isolated brief tornado somewhere... especially in eastern Ontario.

My call is:
15% wind for much of southern Ontario.
5% hail from Lake Erie northeastward to eastern Ontario.
2% tornado in eastern Ontario.

gecko
09-07-2010, 01:13 PM
Looks like some juicy stuff up northeast of Georgian Bay right now. Think I can see the edge of it out my office window in Downview.

Derecho
09-07-2010, 01:22 PM
Definitely turning into a nonevent pretty quickly

Smokin Joe
09-07-2010, 02:21 PM
I saw the anvils of the storms over Georgian bay just north of bradford about an hour ago I got excited for a minute but moving east and looks like nothin doin now up here. Oh well.....gecko where do u get that graphic?

gecko
09-07-2010, 02:50 PM
Nav Canada flight planning page - select Echo Tops, Ontario Composite

http://www.flightplanning.navcanada.ca/cgi-bin/CreePage.pl?Langue=anglais&NoSession=NS_Inconnu&Page=Fore-obs%2Fradar&TypeDoc=html

obwan
09-07-2010, 06:13 PM
outside my house 6:20 p.m.
1794

1795

gecko
09-07-2010, 07:10 PM
Exactly. Anyone got the southeast covered? Some nice development over the lake & Oshawa way 7:30 p.m. Pics to come from the Loblaws parking lot here in Toronto east end (maybe not tonight tho - too much office work to do). That's what I saw, anyway. Glance at the radar shows very tip of Niagara may get some weather as well.

davefootball123
09-07-2010, 07:41 PM
Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region
7:35 PM EDT Tuesday 07 September 2010
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region continued

Thunderstorms moving through ahead of a strong cold front may produce wind gusts of 100 km/h..Along with frequent lightning and torrential downpours.

A trained Canwarn spotter reported estimated 100 km/h gusts and a tree down near Port Colborne around 7.30 PM this evening.

These thunderstorms will move southeast of the border into Western New York state by 9.00 PM.

Derecho
09-07-2010, 08:05 PM
High above the horizon to the east there is a freakishly intense light show right now, so I just pulled up radar to see where the storm is... it's over Buffalo, NY currently, 77 miles/123km east of here.

Today paid off here afterall :whistling:

davefootball123
09-07-2010, 08:21 PM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
GENESEE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
WESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
SOUTHEASTERN ORLEANS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
NORTHERN WYOMING COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 833 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ANGOLA ON THE LAKE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT
COLBORNE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
BLASDELL...
WEST SENECA...
ELMA...
MARILLA...
ALDEN...
DARIEN...
OAKFIELD...
BATAVIA...
BYRON...
CHURCHVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.




671 WUCN11 CWTO 080039SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADAAT 8:39 PM EDT TUESDAY 7 SEPTEMBER 2010.---------------------------------------------------------------------SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:NIAGARA FALLS - WELLAND - SOUTHERN NIAGARA REGION. ---------------------------------------------------------------------==DISCUSSION==WEATHER RADAR AT 8:30 PM CONTINUED TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS OVEREASTERN LAKE ERIE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. PREVIOUSTHUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF 100 KM/H AROUND 7:30 PM..ASREPORTED BY A TRAINED CANWARN SPOTTER IN PORT COLBORNE. ANOTHERINTENSE STORM OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS ANDWILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINES FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TONEAR FORT ERIE BEFORE 9 PM. IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNINGAND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER INTO WESTERNNEW YORK STATE BY 9.15 PM. THIS IS A WARNING THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRINGIN THESE REGIONS. REMEMBER SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCETORNADOES..LISTEN FOR UPDATED WARNINGS. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ONTARIORECOMMENDS TAKING COVER IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHERAPPROACHES. NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO ISAVAILABLE IN THE WWCN11 CWTO BULLETIN ISSUED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWINGTHIS BULLETIN. END/1/OSPC

davefootball123
09-07-2010, 08:43 PM
480 WUCN11 CWTO 080100SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGENDED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADAAT 9:00 PM EDT TUESDAY 7 SEPTEMBER 2010.---------------------------------------------------------------------SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ENDED FOR:NIAGARA FALLS - WELLAND - SOUTHERN NIAGARA REGION. ---------------------------------------------------------------------==DISCUSSION==THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO ISAVAILABLE IN THE WWCN11 CWTO BULLETIN ISSUED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWINGTHIS BULLETIN. END/1/OSPC

davefootball123
09-07-2010, 08:50 PM
WUCN11 CWTO 080107SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADAAT 9:07 PM EDT TUESDAY 7 SEPTEMBER 2010.---------------------------------------------------------------------SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:=NEW= PICTON - SANDBANKS PARK=NEW= NAPANEE - CONSECON=NEW= KINGSTON - ODESSA - FRONTENAC ISLANDS=NEW= TAMWORTH - SYDENHAM - SOUTH FRONTENAC=NEW= GANANOQUE - MALLORYTOWN=NEW= WESTPORT - CHARLESTON LAKE=NEW= MERRICKVILLE-WOLFORD - KEMPTVILLE=NEW= PLEVNA - SHARBOT LAKE - WESTERN LANARK COUNTY=NEW= SMITHS FALLS - PERTH - EASTERN LANARK COUNTY. ---------------------------------------------------------------------==DISCUSSION==A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGHEASTERN ONTARIO. STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 100 KM/H ARE THE MAINTHREAT. FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE ALSOLIKELY. THIS IS A WARNING THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRINGIN THESE REGIONS. REMEMBER SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCETORNADOES..LISTEN FOR UPDATED WARNINGS. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ONTARIORECOMMENDS TAKING COVER IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHERAPPROACHES. NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO ISAVAILABLE IN THE WWCN11 CWTO BULLETIN ISSUED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWINGTHIS BULLETIN. END/1/OSPC
Man EC just keeps impressing me. I guess my emails paid off

davefootball123
09-07-2010, 09:33 PM
[CODE]280 WUCN11 CWTO 080150SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGUPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADAAT 9:50 PM EDT TUESDAY 7 SEPTEMBER 2010.---------------------------------------------------------------------SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:=NEW= PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL=NEW= MORRISBURG - LONG SAULT=NEW= MAXVILLE - ALEXANDRIAGANANOQUE - MALLORYTOWNBROCKVILLE - PRESCOTTWESTPORT - CHARLESTON LAKEMERRICKVILLE-WOLFORD - KEMPTVILLEOTTAWA SOUTH - RICHMOND - METCALFEWINCHESTER - NEWINGTONSMITHS FALLS - PERTH - EASTERN LANARK COUNTY. ---------------------------------------------------------------------==DISCUSSION==WEATHER RADAR AT 9:40 PM INDICATED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TOSEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR MALLORYTOWN TO REGIONSNEIGHBOURING OTTAWA. MOTION IS NORTHEASTWARDS AT AROUND 65 KM/H.THEY WILL AFFECT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF OTTAWA TO PRESCOTT BETWEEN10:15 AND 10:30 PM. STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 100 KM/H ARE THEMAIN THREAT, BUT FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURSALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. LARGE HAIL TO 2 CENTIMETRES IS ALSOPOSSIBLE[CODE]

Smokin Joe
09-07-2010, 09:40 PM
From the holland marsh about 10 min ago I can see small flashes of lightning to the south and southeast. Surprised I can pick that up from so far away maybe because there aren't alot of lights right in the marsh. Didn't get a drop of rain up here

gecko
09-07-2010, 10:44 PM
Here's what I got at 7:30 p.m. from the Loblaws parking lot at Gerrard and Victoria Park in east Toronto. The development was incredibly rapid & if it weren't for some low/mid-level scud over the neighbourhood, I might have caught a beautiful smooth mushroom-top capping one of the heads about 5 minutes before these two frames were made. I've used HDR for these (combines several images of differing exposure values) to even the tones.

Nagii
09-08-2010, 02:22 AM
Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region
7:35 PM EDT Tuesday 07 September 2010
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region continued

Thunderstorms moving through ahead of a strong cold front may produce wind gusts of 100 km/h..Along with frequent lightning and torrential downpours.

A trained Canwarn spotter reported estimated 100 km/h gusts and a tree down near Port Colborne around 7.30 PM this evening.

These thunderstorms will move southeast of the border into Western New York state by 9.00 PM.

My co worker lives in Welland, she sad to me on Facebook that the skies got really yellow then really black and that the wind was insane. We got a 2 minute downpour...that's about it.