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Derecho
08-25-2010, 08:45 PM
In an effort to keep this forum active during this slow period... we will look at the long range forecast!

A long period of high pressure has settled in for the Great Lakes/Midwest region through Sunday.

According to the long range GFS, there is potential for a round of severe thunderstorms beginning early next week across the northern plains and prairies as an area of low pressure develops across Manitoba, sparking a cold front extending into the Plains/Midwest region. Will not speculate on what severe weather conditions could be expected, but an MSC is obviously likely.

Through Wednesday, the low pressure system moves northeast into northern Quebec and the cold front looks to progress this way arriving in Lower Michigan sometime on Tuesday. The front then looks to stall over southern Ontario for Wednesday while a second area of low pressure looks to develop over North Dakota around Tuesday. As it progresses northeastward into northern Ontario, a second cold front looks to form in the Midwest and arrive at southern Ontario sometime on Thursday.

We could be looking at a back-to-back round of severe thunderstorms across the area, but it's still up-in-the-air since this is 7-10 days out and of course everything could change in an instant.

All we can do is wait, and watch to see how this plays out. The GFS has been consistent with a the first area of low pressure for two or three days now.

Popcorn, anyone?

davefootball123
08-25-2010, 09:39 PM
Great to here derecho, u should do storm patrol lol

Derecho
08-27-2010, 02:57 PM
GFS long range is still on board the SS SevereWX Potential for next Wednesday. It now doesn't develop the second low in the Midwest, nor stall the the front over us.

But, it's still indicating the potential for a round of possible thunderstorms.

DarkSky
08-29-2010, 03:56 PM
.. and don't fret about the storm season being over yet folks. We've had some good storms in Septembers, and I recall numerous good ones in Sept. And here in Niagara, I can even recall a handful in December. About 5yrs ago when the temps were up in the 20's in December we had a couple weak ones. But Sept. can be a very hot month here, and with the cold fronts coming in waves from the north as the Fall approaches, it can lead to some active weather. It's not over yet! (has been a very ho-hum mediocre year on average though...)

Itchy
08-29-2010, 04:04 PM
.. and don't fret about the storm season being over yet folks. We've had some good storms in Septembers, and I recall numerous good ones in Sept. And here in Niagara, I can even recall a handful in December. About 5yrs ago when the temps were up in the 20's in December we had a couple weak ones. But Sept. can be a very hot month here, and with the cold fronts coming in waves from the north as the Fall approaches, it can lead to some active weather. It's not over yet! (has been a very ho-hum mediocre year on average though...)

Good year for storms, terrible for finding a tornado though. Then again it seems some areas this year have seen barely anything!
Lots of isolated storms but very few large scale events. October 17 I think is my latest chase, hope something happens ! Didn't we have a tornado last year sometime around late september?

Derecho
08-29-2010, 06:03 PM
Good year for storms, terrible for finding a tornado though. Then again it seems some areas this year have seen barely anything!
Lots of isolated storms but very few large scale events. October 17 I think is my latest chase, hope something happens ! Didn't we have a tornado last year sometime around late september?

Yep!

Sep.28 pm (F1) EAST OF ORONO - 8km path, damage to 3 barns east of Orono to Kendal, including one completely collapsed. Trees down, funnel clouds signed