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obwan
08-14-2010, 04:18 AM
heres what NOAA says

...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS...
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE
REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY...AIDED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG
THE RETREATING WRN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE AND LINGERING LARGE-SCALE
SUPPORT BY AN EJECTING JET IMPULSE. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON AIR MASS
RECOVERY IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND WHAT ROLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PLAY FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
STORMS. POSITIVES IN SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDE PRESENCE
OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ AND
POTENTIAL STRONG HEATING /MLCAPES 2000+ J/KG/.

WHILE THERE MAY BE MINOR LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IN WAKE OF A LEAD WAVE
EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SEWD BY MID-AFTERNOON. THUS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...BOTH ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND THE PRIMARY FRONT...ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION OF SUCH ENTITIES IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING RISKS FOR
BRIEF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL-SCALE BOWS...WILL EXIST ROUGHLY FROM I-70
NWD INTO MI/SWRN ONTARIO. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES
TOWARD THE MID-UPPER OH VALLEY.

obwan
08-14-2010, 05:34 PM
noon update sounds promising


Sunday ...ERN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION AS GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS
REALIZED. GENERAL WLY FLOW WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS
THAT A NUMBER OF FAST-MOVING BANDS/LINES OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IF DISCRETE OR
QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOP. SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

Eabie
08-14-2010, 05:44 PM
I think you mean the 15th. :)

davefootball123
08-14-2010, 05:53 PM
check out my site for the full story. www.southernontarioweather.ca

Derecho
08-15-2010, 02:21 PM
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:19 PM EDT SUNDAY 15 AUGUST 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO...

TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= TIMMINS - COCHRANE - IROQUOIS FALLS
=NEW= LITTLE ABITIBI - KESAGAMI LAKE.

WEATHER RADAR INDICATES TWO THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF
COCHRANE EXHIBITING SIGNIFICANT ROTATION. THEY MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. ONE STORM IS ABOUT 20 KM NORTH OF
COCHRANE AND THE OTHER IS ABOUT 40 KM NORTH. MOTION IS
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 50 KM/H.




TORNADO WATCH FOR:
TIMMINS - COCHRANE
GREATER SUDBURY AND VICINITY
GOGAMA - FOLEYET
KIRKLAND LAKE - NEW LISKEARD - TEMAGAMI
ELLIOT LAKE - RANGER LAKE
BLIND RIVER - THESSALON
ESPANOLA - KILLARNEY
NORTH BAY - WEST NIPISSING.

==DISCUSSION==
WARM AND HUMID AIR IS CREATING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGIONS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES.

Derecho
08-15-2010, 11:00 PM
TORNADO WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:15 PM EDT SUNDAY 15 AUGUST 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= UXBRIDGE - BEAVERTON - NORTHERN DURHAM REGION
=NEW= LINDSAY - SOUTHERN KAWARTHA LAKES.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
WEATHER RADAR AT 4:10 PM INDICATED A STRONGLY ROTATING THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BLACKSTOCK.
MOTION IS TO THE EAST AT AROUND 40 KM/H. IT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LITTLE BRITAIN AREA BY 5 PM.