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obwan
08-05-2010, 09:55 PM
Looks like change is in the wind. Ridge that has been over over central Miss Valley all summer will reappear on east coast and begin pumping warm humid air to the great lakes while the trough over Hudson Bay/ Manitoba will continue to send pulses our way. This should set us up for more typical system passing through the region. :):):)

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2010

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MOST OF THE ERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY...BUT UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NERN
STATES ALONG WITH A MEAN TROUGH IN THE WEST THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6.
RICHER MOISTURE WILL HAVE RETURNED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST ACTIVE CORRIDORS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD EXIST FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL RESIDE BENEATH BELT OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL IMPULSES ORIGINATING WITHIN WRN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES...NRN PLAINS THEN
EWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES WHICH
LOWERS OVERALL PREDICTABILITY FOR THE 4-8 PERIOD.

davefootball123
08-07-2010, 03:41 PM
http://www.southernontarioweather.ca/larger-image---categorial-day-2.php
this is are outlook go to convective outlooks to read the disscussion

davefootball123
08-07-2010, 04:53 PM
1. TONIGHT..QUIET NIGHT IN STORE WITH WEAK AND ISOLATED ELEVATED PRE-WARM FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS NEAR THE MINNESOTA BORDER AND ALSO POSSIBLY OVER REGIONS NEAR NRN LAKE HURON SUCH AS MANITOULIN AND THE SOO. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THESE MAY JUST REACH THE BRUCE PENINSULA WELL OVERNIGHT BUT WITH AXIS OF SWLY LOW LEVEL JET NOT REACHING THIS AREA UNTIL ABOUT 09Z HAVE HELD OFF MENTION OF ANY POPS FOR THOSE FOLKS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER SRN/ERN ONT SHOULD FALL APART THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS FAR NERN AND NRN ONTARIO AROUND SLOWLY DEPARTING LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALSO EASING OFF AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NRN QUEBEC. 2. SUNDAY..LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS A FORECAST PROBLEM AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE COMPLEX OF TSTMS FORM IN THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING. GEM/NAM AND WRF GUIDANCE ALL TRACK AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN NORTH OF THE TORONTO AREA WITH THE GEM FURTHEST NORTH AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING EXPECT ALOT OF CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND CAPES..KEEPING TSTMS EMBEDDED AND NON-SEVERE WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN FEATURE AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE AGAIN. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD WELL OCCUR IN SWRN ONTARIO AND NEAR LAKE HURON WHERE INSTABILITY COULD BE THE GREATEST AS A POLAR WAVE MOVES IN (LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK ESEWD BETWEEN LONDON AND WINDSOR INTO CENTRAL LAKE ERIE). HOWEVER GEM/NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS AREA TO EITHER BE CAPPED OR HAVE LITTLE CAPE (FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR LESS)..SO ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE PREVENTED. HAVE INDICATED LOW CHANCE POPS IN FORECASTS THERE ALSO IN CASE A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN FROM MICHIGAN AS THE POLAR WAVE SUPPORTING THESE MOVES IN. 3. NWRN ONTARIO COULD BECOME ACTIVE LATER SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE PRAIRIES. MLCAPES OF 1500ISH J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS NEAR 30 KTS AS PER SREF NEAR THE MINNESOTA BORDER SUGGEST AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK THAT A FEW CELLS COULD REACH SEVERE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN AT LEAST 30-40 MM) AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLE BOW SEGMENTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. BEST INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT THOUGH REMAIN TO THE SW OVER MINN AND THE DAKOTAS.. NEAR THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.. SO IF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DOES FORM DOWN THERE IT COULD ACT AS A MOISTURE BARRIER AND INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT TSTMS FURTHER NORTH. 3. MONDAY..ONE FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING OF WEAK COLD FRONTAL TYPE OF TROUGH THROUGH SRN ONTARIO. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE GOES THROUGH BY NOON..WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS FROM THIS JUST SE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THOUGH TORONTO AND SE INTO NIAGARA FOR CONTINUITY. ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE NWRN ONTARIO CLOSER TO AXIS OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUT BEST INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE TO THE WEST. IN GENERAL THOUGH LOOK FOR A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPS SRN/ERN ONT BACK INTO THE UPPER TWENTIES TO LOW THIRTIES AND HUMIDEX ADVISORIES POSSIBLY BEING AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY SWRN ONTARIO. FAST MOVING IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SRN EDGE OF WESTERLIES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MAKE TIMING OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DIFFICULT..SO HAVE GONE WITH THE VARIOUS CHANCE POPS SUGGESTED BY REGIONAL SCRIBE IN THE LATEST FORECASTS. 4. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT..EH? END/KUHN/OSPC

Smokin Joe
08-10-2010, 02:02 PM
anyone have any thoughts on friday saturday? I believe the latest d4-8 spc said a trough will become quasi stationary over ontario.......does this mean more rain and less storms or would it mean we are going to get trained by some good storms??? or neither!?! :unsure:

Smokin Joe
08-11-2010, 11:09 AM
Ok looking like sat-sun now........nobody seems enthused by the weekend potential.......so i will hold the candle for weekend severe storms all by myself.....so look the f out everyone.....readwulf asked people to resonate before so i'm resonating like crazy as we are running out of season fast lol

Have noticed the spc has probability too low instead of predictability too low now, which is a bit of a downer, but possibly that is just with respect to the U.S. not us........

davefootball123
08-11-2010, 01:45 PM
ya mabye. I was looking at some models not to good, Chance of a pop up on sunday

Smokin Joe
08-14-2010, 06:38 AM
So we could be seeing some severe action tomorrow after all eh? Let's hope the next update holds the same news or better for once instead of bringing us the shaft