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View Full Version : July.28/10 storms across southern Ontario


Itchy
07-26-2010, 11:09 AM
Thought I would post the outlook to maybe get some opinions of the day, doesn't seem like anything special.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT
LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY...

...SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY/MID-MO VALLEY...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ON THE BOUNDARY AND
SWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE OH AND MID-MO VALLEYS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS COMBINED WITH 25 TO 35 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES WITH 25 TO 35 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SUGGESTING THE BETTER ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS
SHOULD HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

Derecho
07-26-2010, 11:37 AM
From where we stand right now:
There really isn't a lot of ingredients to work with over southern Ontario. Around Windsor southwest to central Illinois, SREF indicates plenty of juice and instability. North of about London, the instability significantly drops off. Doesn't look like a chance of daytime/afternoon supercells will occur this far north.

The cold front looks to affect us sometime after 9pm on Wednesday. There should be enough moisture and minimal CAPE to support at least a modest damaging wind threat for southern Ontario along the front.

Cloud cover doesn't look to be a problem. :|

Itchy
07-26-2010, 03:34 PM
Thanks for the input, Maybe a chance for some lightning shots at night. I know it's a while away but I wonder what the chances would be of a lakebreeze pumping some juice into the system to save the day! lol

Derecho
07-26-2010, 05:16 PM
Thunder parameters are very high for Wed, could be a great like show

davefootball123
07-26-2010, 05:26 PM
nice got take a look at my site i have a discussion

Derecho
07-26-2010, 08:00 PM
15z SREF introduces low tornado probabilities for central and eastern Ontario... as well as southern Quebec. They develop around Lake Nipissing and progress easthward to almost Montreal by early Thursday morning.

As well as low tornado probabilities, SREF has now introduced supercell potential from Lake Nipissing to Ottawa.

davefootball123
07-27-2010, 12:16 PM
This system has the history of producing tornadoes in the northern plains southern manitoba and northern otario. Even look at the spc today. 30% damaging winds 30% hail and 10 % with a hatched area for tornadoes

davefootball123
07-27-2010, 03:32 PM
New spc inclueds slight risk up to ottawa

Derecho
07-27-2010, 06:52 PM
Some models are showing the cold front exiting southern Ontario by 4-6pm, others around 8pm. Guess we won't have accurate timing until tomorrow, but if it's early... I wonder what that could mean for severe chances.

Also, looks like a pretty decent supercell/isolated tornado threat will be present across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

Mid-morning cloud cover could prove to be an issue for us, with clouds pushing in around noon and hanging around until the cold front.

Whatever the case, I'm refraining from getting too excited for this. We've been fooled by mother nature all too often recently.

obwan
07-27-2010, 11:43 PM
Looks like Niagara peninsula and WNY will be the place to be once again.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS AND OH
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINAL IN
THIS REGION...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. NEVERTHELESS...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS WILL POSE
A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. AFTER DARK...FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NY AND EVENTUALLY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE POOR TIME OF DAY...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION OVERNIGHT.

Derecho
07-28-2010, 12:47 AM
Cloud cover is my greatest concern, and with speed of the advancing cold front following closely behind.

Morning clouds look suspect for inhibiting enough heating and destabilization before the front which should come through sometime in the afternoon.

DTX suggests the front could slow, so it could possibly arrive a little later... but if we're cloudy all morning/early afternoon, not too sure what kind of a show to expect, especially with the weak instability it will have to work with.

Argh.

obwan
07-28-2010, 07:46 AM
looks as though Moses has parted the waters and were free and clear of any significant weather.

...MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...OR PERHAPS MORE LIKELY AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT UPPER GREAT LAKES MCS...DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE BRUNT OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE BORDER...AND TEND NOT TO BE WELL-PHASED WITH THE GREATER
MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DECELERATING COLD FRONT. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK IN ADDITION TO
LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR IN/NEAR THE WARM SECTOR...AND THUS A
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD/VIGOROUS SEVERE EPISODE IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. NONETHELESS...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FORCING/HEATING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SEMI-SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/LINEAR CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

Smokin Joe
07-28-2010, 08:31 AM
If you look at the king city radar now is that the front I'm seeing right there already represented by the line of precip from north of barrie down to the SW?

Edit......i guess it cant be yet judging by EC outlook......are these showers related to the MCS of yesterday night? and why does the outlook say "along and ahead of a front" for both today and tonight? Is it that hard to narrow the passing of fronts down to a specific few hour period? or is it just this type of system that is hard to predict?

Derecho
07-28-2010, 11:30 AM
30% wind probabilities introduced by the SPC for the Lake Erie/Lake Ontario shores.

Derecho
07-28-2010, 11:33 AM
If you look at the king city radar now is that the front I'm seeing right there already represented by the line of precip from north of barrie down to the SW?

Edit......i guess it cant be yet judging by EC outlook......are these showers related to the MCS of yesterday night? and why does the outlook say "along and ahead of a front" for both today and tonight? Is it that hard to narrow the passing of fronts down to a specific few hour period? or is it just this type of system that is hard to predict?

This mornings rain was leftover remnants of the MCS from the Upper Lakes region of the USA. The warm front right now is located around Stratford, and the Cold front is somewhere near Lake Michigan.

EC's outlook says 'along and ahead of the front' because isolated thunderstorms, possibly somewhat supercelluar in nature, could develop ahead of the cold front where there could be a steady line of thunderstorms.

Today and tonight refers to the fact that the cold front is on the move. This afternoon it could be a southwest/south central threat where tonight it'll be a southeastern/eastern threat.

EDIT: Actually, I think the warm front passed much of southern Ontario about an hour ago.

Smokin Joe
07-28-2010, 12:12 PM
I see thanks for explaining.....

DarkSky
07-28-2010, 04:19 PM
Storms firing up now...

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/8707/temphi.jpg

Derecho
07-28-2010, 10:28 PM
1 dead from the storms today :(

http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/news/local/article/88263--man-killed-after-being-struck-by-lightning

davefootball123
07-28-2010, 10:56 PM
That is about 1 km down the street from my house on sanitorium road that is near the escarptment lookout where i watch the storms

DarkSky
07-28-2010, 11:20 PM
276
AWCN11 CWTO 282328
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA TORONTO
AT 7:27 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 28 JULY 2010.

-------------------------------------------------------------
==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==

BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROARED ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY GENERATING NUMEROUS WATCHES AND WARNINGS. MANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO
70 KM/H. IT APPEARS THAT A SWATH OF REGIONS EXTENDING FROM NEAR
GRAND BEND ACROSS WOODSTOCK TO NEAR CALEDONIA AND A SECOND SWATH OF
REGIONS EXTENDING FROM NEAR MADOC TO JUST NORTH OF KINGSTON
RECEIVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 30 TO 50 MM FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ACCORDING TO WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATES.

LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 75 MM HAVE BEEN MEASURED
IN THE WOODSTOCK AREA OF OXFORD COUNTY BY WEATHER RADAR FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

REPORTS OF STRONGER WINDS AND WIND DAMAGE RECEIVED BY ENVIRONMENT
CANADA AS OF 7 PM ARE FOUND IN THE TABLE BELOW.

-------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION EVENT DESCRIPTION

WINDSOR 76 KM/H WIND GUST
HENSALL TREES DOWN
CAMBRIDGE 80 KM/H GUST (ESTIMATED)
HAMILTON 74 KM/H WIND GUST


PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS SUMMARY CONTAINS THE OBSERVATIONS AT
THE TIME OF BROADCAST AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFICIAL
AND FINAL REPORT OF THE WEATHER EVENTS OR THE HIGH
IMPACT EVENTS ATTRIBUTED TO THE WEATHER EVENTS.

END/OSPC

Itchy
07-29-2010, 12:41 PM
1 dead from the storms today :(

http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/news/local/article/88263--man-killed-after-being-struck-by-lightning


as harsh as it sounds I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often, The general public around London behave in a stupid reckless manner during thunderstorms with zero respect for lightning. Headed out for a few pics and there were bolts coming down within a kilometer of me, and eveyone is out walking around still, people with thier kids strolling along. Guys riding thier bikes, a group of workers at a glass shop standing outside in a steel frame loading glass......... There is no respect for what these storms can do. There has been another time where lighting was dropping out of an lp base last year and where I was standing it was sunny but the lightning was hitting close enough to crackle, and a hundred yards down the road some guys are up on a roof doing tiles.......................

For a storm chaser the most likely way of getting killed I would say is lightning and traffic, then the tornado

DarkSky
07-29-2010, 01:16 PM
656
AWCN11 CWTO 291700
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA TORONTO
AT 12:55 PM EDT THURSDAY 29 JULY 2010.

-------------------------------------------------------------
==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==

BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROARED ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY GENERATING NUMEROUS WATCHES AND WARNINGS. MANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO
70 KM/H. IT APPEARS THAT A SWATH OF REGIONS EXTENDING FROM NEAR
GRAND BEND ACROSS WOODSTOCK AND INNERKIP TO HAMILTON AND CALEDONIA
AND A SECOND SWATH OF REGIONS EXTENDING FROM NEAR MADOC TO JUST
NORTH OF KINGSTON RECEIVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 30 TO 50 MM FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ACCORDING TO WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATES.

LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 75 MM HAVE BEEN MEASURED
IN THE WOODSTOCK AREA OF OXFORD COUNTY BY WEATHER RADAR FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

REPORTS OF STRONGER WINDS AND WIND DAMAGE RECEIVED BY ENVIRONMENT
CANADA AS OF 12 NOON TODAY ARE FOUND IN THE TABLE BELOW.

-------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION EVENT DESCRIPTION

WINDSOR 76 KM/H WIND GUST
HENSALL TREES DOWN
CAMBRIDGE 80 KM/H GUST (ESTIMATED)
SCOTLAND
(SW BRANTFORD) LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN ON PICKUP TRUCK
THAMESFORD TREES DOWN
HAMILTON 74 KM/H WIND GUST
PORT COLBORNE 80 KM/H GUST (ESTIMATED)

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS SUMMARY CONTAINS THE OBSERVATIONS AT
THE TIME OF BROADCAST AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFICIAL
AND FINAL REPORT OF THE WEATHER EVENTS OR THE HIGH
IMPACT EVENTS ATTRIBUTED TO THE WEATHER EVENTS.

END/OSPC

Derecho
07-29-2010, 03:19 PM
as harsh as it sounds I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often, The general public around London behave in a stupid reckless manner during thunderstorms with zero respect for lightning. Headed out for a few pics and there were bolts coming down within a kilometer of me, and eveyone is out walking around still, people with thier kids strolling along. Guys riding thier bikes, a group of workers at a glass shop standing outside in a steel frame loading glass......... There is no respect for what these storms can do. There has been another time where lighting was dropping out of an lp base last year and where I was standing it was sunny but the lightning was hitting close enough to crackle, and a hundred yards down the road some guys are up on a roof doing tiles.......................

For a storm chaser the most likely way of getting killed I would say is lightning and traffic, then the tornado

Oh for sure. I've seen people take their babies in the stroller down the street as a shelf cloud is rolling in and there is intense rolling thunder. :confused:

I wonder if there might not be enough public education at work, but in reality even in the USA there are plenty of lightning related deaths. Not too sure what can be done about it. Some people just don't have a clue.

Itchy
07-29-2010, 03:36 PM
Oh for sure. I've seen people take their babies in the stroller down the street as a shelf cloud is rolling in and there is intense rolling thunder. :confused:

I wonder if there might not be enough public education at work, but in reality even in the USA there are plenty of lightning related deaths. Not too sure what can be done about it. Some people just don't have a clue.


Hehe, here is a pic of those guys I was talking about, just before the image a bolt hit close enough that you could hear it under 3 seconds. Here they are working in a metal cage.......I would have refused to work. Lightning continued to strike nearby as well

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4085/4841628050_72f0efb4e9_b.jpg

DarkSky
07-29-2010, 04:11 PM
I may wound like a big wuss when it comes to lightning, but even getting out of my truck and going into the house during a lightning storm, I always try to be quick as possible. I'm always imagining that instantaneous flash-and-its-all-over happening because *I* am the guy that that type of thing happens to! :unsure:

Derecho
07-29-2010, 04:12 PM
EDIT: Me too, DarkSky! I always sit outside on my deck when a storm is approaching, but once the thunder comes five or so seconds after the lightning, inside I go... and in quite a hurry, too.
---
Things that make you go hmmmmmmm, Itchy...

-------------------------
I heard on TWN that a wall cloud was spotted southwest of Stratford on the supercell we were tracking when it was exhibitng signs of intense rotation yesterday afternoon.

Itchy
07-29-2010, 07:34 PM
EDIT: Me too, DarkSky! I always sit outside on my deck when a storm is approaching, but once the thunder comes five or so seconds after the lightning, inside I go... and in quite a hurry, too.
---
Things that make you go hmmmmmmm, Itchy...

-------------------------
I heard on TWN that a wall cloud was spotted southwest of Stratford on the supercell we were tracking when it was exhibitng signs of intense rotation yesterday afternoon.


Maybe the pics I have are of that cell falling apart?

davefootball123
07-29-2010, 07:55 PM
Well i was outside basicley during the whole storm yesterday except when i was in checking radar . i got pretty wet and the lightning was bad. sure it crosses my mind but it is worth it, my dads also out with me

DarkSky
07-31-2010, 03:37 PM
Well i was outside basicley during the whole storm yesterday except when i was in checking radar . i got pretty wet and the lightning was bad. sure it crosses my mind but it is worth it, my dads also out with me

As long as a parent is out with you, you're safe :) :whistling:

davefootball123
07-31-2010, 10:55 PM
lol ya sure