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Storm Chaser
07-15-2010, 10:19 PM
Post any related info to this sunday's storm risk.:)

Storm Chaser
07-15-2010, 10:21 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

davefootball123
07-15-2010, 10:22 PM
HMMMmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm,lol

Derecho
07-16-2010, 12:06 PM
SREF
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010071609/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f057.gif
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010071609/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f060.gif
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010071609/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f063.gif
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010071609/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f066.gif

Storm Chaser
07-16-2010, 01:05 PM
...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE DAY2 NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO LOWER MI BY 18-21Z...LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY THE CONTINUATION OF A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MCS THAT
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MN/WI INTO MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN MIGRATE ACROSS ON CLIPPING UPSTATE NY BEFORE EJECTING
TOWARD NRN ME. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL VEER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT SETTLES INTO SERN LOWER
MI...SWWD INTO IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WITH SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S SHOULD EASILY RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER
OF 3000 J/KG WHERE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
SEVERE MULTI-CELL...OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG MUCH OF THE WIND
SHIFT WITH TRAILING CONVECTION ACROSS MO LIKELY DELAYED BY A MUCH
STRONGER CAP. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SEEM REASONABLY ASSURED
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG NRN SEGMENTS OF THE
FRONT WHERE SHEAR/FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

Derecho
07-17-2010, 12:02 AM
MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY AS EMBEDDED MID TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES BRINGING STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
SURFACE WAVE/FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DECENT RETURN FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHARPEN MOISTURE GRADIENT/INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT... BUT CONVECTIVE MODE STILL REMAINS A
BIT IN QUESTION. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT DEVELOPING CONVECTION
AT THE LEAD EDGE OF THE WAVE IN NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY MAY WELL HOLD TOGETHER AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF A SERIAL DERECHO
(PROBABLY IMPACTING SE MICHIGAN MIDDAY). IF IT DOESN`T... AND WE SEE
A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF KEY PLAYERS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... WE
COULD CREATE A NEW GENESIS REGION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD FAVOR MORE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES IN HIGH
SHEAR/CAPE ENVIRONMENT. IT`LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
EVOLVES. NAM SEEMS TO FAVOR THE FORMER WITH THE GFS HINTING TOWARD
THE LATTER.

Eabie
07-17-2010, 07:12 AM
30% risk for southwestern tip of Ontario, 15% risk for the rest of Southern Ontario. At least for now.


SHORT RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY2
REGARDING THE SPEED/EVOLUTION OF NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GFS IS NOTABLY FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT
MIGRATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE
NAM RELUCTANTLY HOLDS THE TROUGH ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO INTO MN.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION REFLECTS REALITY...IF EITHER ACTUALLY
DO...IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...AT LEAST TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR...ENHANCING
CLOUD BEARING SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINE
SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS.

IN ALL LIKELIHOOD ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD FROM WI...SWD INTO PERHAPS PORTIONS OF IA OR EVEN NRN
IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO LOWER MI
EARLY AS LLJ VEERS AND TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD SRN ON.
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MAY BE MINIMIZED ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...BUT
FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO THE OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO MO STRONG SUNSHINE
WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REMOVE ANY INHIBITION FOR
ROBUST FRONTAL...AND PRE-FRONTAL...CONVECTION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY EXCEED
3000-3500 J/KG WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 70S AND
PWAT VALUES LIKELY IN THE 1.75-2 INCH RANGE. DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS...ENHANCED BY WATER LOADING...WILL LIKELY BE THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MORE
DISCRETE STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY IF STORM ROTATION IS INVOLVED. AT
THIS TIME WILL ONLY EXTEND LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
INTO NERN KS...HOWEVER VERY HOT SFC TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EASILY ENHANCE SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS ACROSS THIS REGION
DESPITE WEAKER MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW.

davefootball123
07-17-2010, 11:49 AM
The new SPC forecst comes out at 1:30 this afternoon. As the picture gets more clear southern ontario may be upgraded to 30% probs but you have to remember we have like 4 more spc forecasts to go through

davefootball123
07-17-2010, 08:00 PM
Sunday..Scattered thunderstorms spreading over Southern Ontario from
the northwest during the afternoon. There is the risk that some of
these storms may form a squall line and become severe with damaging
winds large hail and heavy downpours. An isolated tornado is also
possible.

Derecho
07-18-2010, 01:56 AM
Hmm... not liking the mid day cloud cover potential.

Raedwulf
07-18-2010, 10:48 AM
Today..Scattered thunderstorms spreading over Southern Ontario from
the west midday. There is the risk that some of these storms may
Form a squall line and become severe with damaging winds large hail
and heavy downpours. An isolated tornado is also possible. Isolated
non severe thunderstorms possible over Northwestern Ontario late in
the day. Isolated non severe thunderstorms possible over the Nickel
Belt in the afternoon possibly reaching severe limits due to heavy
downpours.

Tonight..Scattered thunderstorms over Southern Ontario. There is a
risk of severe thunderstorms from London to Niagara including Lake
Erie in the evening with damaging winds, hail and torrential
downpours as the main threats. An isolated tornado is also possible
early in the evening. Thunderstorms over southcentral and Eastern
Ontario may approach severe limits due to torrential downpours and
gusty winds.



Everyone resonate on getting some sort of major organized event. I've had dreams of getting a major line of storms the last three nights. A couple days ago I had a dream that there were smaller lines trying to form and ..what happened? The unexpected..very close to how it was portrayed in my dreams - incredible -
. The world is stranger than you think my friends.
RESONATE

davefootball123
07-18-2010, 02:21 PM
An overcast deck of mid and high clouds has overspread the area from upstream mcs activity. A fewvery light showers have been moving east across the area this morning with the main concern fortoday continuing to be the severe weather threat later this afternoon into early evening. Visiblesatellite trends have shown a good clearing trend across southern Wisconsin, extending southeastacross extreme southern Michigan/northern Indiana. Temperatures jumped as much as 5-6 degrees atseveral sites in one hour in this warm sector as clouds cleared out. The surface low is currentlypositioned in southern Wisconsin and this clearing line is expected to lift north as the warm frontthis afternoon. At the same time strong low level moisture advection is occurring with dewpointsalready in the mid 60s after dropping into the upper 50s overnight. Dewpoints are very high acrosseastern Illinois/western Indiana with values solidly in the mid 70s. This moisture will continue tospread north ahead of the low although better mixing will likely limit values to the low 70s.
This should amount to rapid destabilization as the clouds clear out in the next 2-3 hours. The 12zILX sounding with upwards of 4000 j/kg was more indicative of the approaching airmass then the 12zDTX sounding was. We will be doing an 18z launch to get an update on conditions. The atmsophereappears to be weakly capped at this time but expect to see this erode with thunderstorms developingalong the warm front by 18-19z. Discreet cells along the front will be a large concern given thecyclonic flow in the vicinity of the approaching low. Strong winds, large hail and even a tornadothreat continue to be a concern for this afternoon. Special marine warnings have already been issuedfor the line moving across Lake Michigan although this appears to still be north of the surfacebased instability. This should fill in to the south with embedded mcv and may strengthen as wecontinue to destabilize. Another line of thunderstorms developing further eastwards along warm frontis also likely. Time frame on strong thunderstorms still looks on track between 3-9 pm.

davefootball123
07-18-2010, 04:32 PM
Lol like my drawing this is what ec says. JKS. Second ones for eabie and derecho

Derecho
07-18-2010, 07:47 PM
Hmm... not liking the mid day cloud cover potential.

Stupid clouds.



Interesting to note there have been three tornado producing supercells across northern Lower Michigan within the past hour.

Derecho
07-18-2010, 10:33 PM
TORNADO WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:37 PM EDT SUNDAY 18 JULY 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY
=NEW= SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WARNING FOR:
SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON ARE REACHING THE SHORELINES OF
THE ABOVE REGIONS AND THERE IS A RISK OF TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS.
WIND GUSTS OVER 120 KM/H TORRENTIAL RAINFALL 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES
AND HAIL TO 3 OR 4 CENTIMETRES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

Reffik
07-18-2010, 10:42 PM
Currently in northern Mississauga, watching the lightning (every 5-10 seconds) roll in.