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View Full Version : Tommorow (Thurs. July 15th) Possible Storms


Storm Chaser
07-14-2010, 09:56 PM
post any info on tommorows possible storms here :)

Storm Chaser
07-14-2010, 09:58 PM
;):D...SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE NERN STATES POSSIBLE DAYS 4-6...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MOVING A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF A STATES FROM ND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY 4 /JUL 17/
THROUGH DAY 6 /JUL 19/. LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW QUITE SIMILAR TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. STRONG LOW
AND MID LEVEL JETS ARE FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING
THE SYSTEM. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING DAY 4 /JUL
17/ OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
ON DAY 5 /JUL 18/. BY DAY 6 /JUL 19/ THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN STATES. OVERALL
JET PATTERN SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILS
OF THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

..WEISS.. 07/14/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


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Derecho
07-14-2010, 10:32 PM
Day 4-5 is hardly tomorrow ;)

But, could be interesting tomorrow. Some sort of MCS through the evening traveling through southern Ontario with the cold front. Tornado threat is practically nil, likely just a high wind/heavy rain episode. Maybe some intense lightning. Hard to gauge whether discrete supercells may fire ahead of the front, I think the SPC outlined the potential in the day 2 update at 130pm today. If this were to occur, I don't see why an isolated tornado somewhere isn't possible. But, nothing like the potential there was today.

Since July 13th, this whole event just screams August 17-19, 2005. Could be a messy day for someone tomorrow. Also, interesting to note, this is event also has a few similarities to the July 14-15, 1995 derecho outbreak from the Midwest/Upper Lakes through southern Ontario all the way through Boston.

Raedwulf
07-15-2010, 12:07 AM
Anythings possible when you have the ingredients.
Resonate in accordance to what you wish to occur...

Storm Chaser
07-15-2010, 10:01 AM
hahaha i copied the wrong outlook stupid me....:P

Smokin Joe
07-15-2010, 02:26 PM
Notice a big juicy line moving through Michigan wondering if itll look that nice theough ontario i'm jonesing for a line like that to cream us!

davefootball123
07-15-2010, 02:31 PM
lol yaa i hope it gets here with some intense lightning

Smokin Joe
07-15-2010, 05:42 PM
Going after the strong line south of the Bruce peninsula hope i make ir

Smokin Joe
07-15-2010, 06:21 PM
West of shelburne on hwy89 now

vermeer99
07-16-2010, 07:30 AM
Well, I'm from Hamilton, and while last night's storm did cover a huge portion of south(western) Ontario, it fizzled out as soon as it reached the corridor between lake Erie and lake Ontario (as seems to be usual). The shore of Lake Erie remained active, so from Hamilton, the only glimpses of the big storm were distant flashes to the south.

This morning, I checked the weather radar for the most recent activity, and it seems I had slept through a 'second wave' that might have yielded a nice light display for the Hamilton area...

Storm Chaser
07-16-2010, 09:51 AM
ohh darn! i must have just slept thru it again!!!! ughhh!! :(

xxCanuck
07-16-2010, 12:15 PM
Complete bust. All we had was some light rain.

davefootball123
07-16-2010, 01:02 PM
It did yield a nice display of lightning and also 80km/h winds extremley heavy rain which made for zero visibility

Derecho
07-16-2010, 01:32 PM
Complete bust. All we had was some light rain.

It wasn't a bust. It was evident by late afternoon that once the line made it east of KW that the environment would not be supportive of continued convective development. Also, the GTA/Golden Horseshoe were only under a 5% risk of damaging winds. Well, I guess EC's upgrade to a Moderate Risk busted. :whistling: