PDA

View Full Version : Today (June 28th)


Storm Chaser
06-28-2010, 10:02 AM
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD/NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NEW
ENGLAND. FARTHER S...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD THROUGH THE
HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH CNTRL IL INTO SRN MO.

BOTH HIGH-RESOLUTION /I.E. CONVECTION-ALLOWING/ AND MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ABOVE-MENTIONED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM PROGRESSING ESEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AMBIENT AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. AND EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD OCCUR INVOF SURFACE TROUGH
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THICKER CLOUD SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE W. AS SUCH...EXPECT ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG
OVER PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...TO 2000-2500 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN
VA.

THIS AREA OF FAVORED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO RESIDE ALONG
THE SRN/SERN FRINGE OF STRONGER...CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ATTENDANT TO
MIDLEVEL TROUGH. RESULTANT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW 40-50 KT OF
DEEP WSWLY SHEAR OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...DIMINISHING TO 30-35 KT
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF VA...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS/BOWS AND MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
WRN PA/ERN OH INTO WV AND KY. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
PRESENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BECOME LATER TODAY. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS KY...HOWEVER
AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE S OF STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND
FIELD...RESULTING IN MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
TORMS.

Storm Chaser
06-28-2010, 02:24 PM
Watches
City of Hamilton
2:13 PM EDT Monday 28 June 2010
Severe thunderstorm watch for
City of Hamilton continued

Thunderstorms along and ahead of an approaching cold front have the potential of becoming severe this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 100 km/h and hail of 2 cm diameter will be the main threats with these storms.

Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements. If threatening weather approaches take immediate safety precautions.

.

Itchy
06-28-2010, 03:43 PM
Just had a nice chase, some strong rotation at one point with intense lift to it. Winds were moderately strong ripping apart smaller branches on trees and I didn't get a chance to sample any hail cores. Figures, I travel a long distance the day before miss a supercell and get some marginal storms worth following. Then today I have a great chase with a storm that went right over me !!!!!