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View Full Version : Jun.23, 2010 - Wednesday Pt 2: Moderate Risk


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Derecho
06-23-2010, 06:44 AM
The other thread got too long. Moderate risk in effect for southern Ontario. Looks like the MCS will come through southern Ontario around 1-2pm, followed by another round of severe weather in the evening.

SigTor parameters for 00z:
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010062303/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f021.gif

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 06:56 AM
I swear its better than christmas
Wakeing up to tornado and supercell models.
Helicity maps and shear
dewpoints and capes

Sigh*
Can't.........retain.......my..love..for....storms.


If I don't get a storm where I am..I am going to break my legs.
As it stands in its stormy state ATM

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:15 AM
I couldn't sleep, lol.

45% hatched wind potential for southern Ontario.

That MCS is really starting to get its act together as it approaches Lower Michigan. BRB coffee

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:18 AM
You're in a good spot. waterloo..I'm in Oshawa..even in cases like this..storms tend to deteriorate by the time they get here..and..rebuild themselves when they passed! It's like I'm in a cursed zone. My extensive love yields me extensive pain. Like a lesson, lost forever in the abyss of the wind:(

>_>..
Depending on how this thing goes, I might have to drive out that way to get a shot. Then..good 'ol Murphy will pay me a visit and the whole thing will go BUST then there will be like some SUPER-MEGA-OMNI-CELL right over my city and itll be laughing and choking up civilians>=( and ill be like ._. >_>

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:19 AM
Just issued:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ONTARIO REGION.
7:05 AM EDT WEDNESDAY 23 JUNE 2010.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR..
CITY OF TORONTO
WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
SARNIA - LAMBTON
ELGIN
LONDON - MIDDLESEX
SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
OXFORD - BRANT
NIAGARA
CITY OF HAMILTON
HALTON - PEEL
YORK - DURHAM
HURON - PERTH
WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
DUFFERIN - INNISFIL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST TOWARDS THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE THIS
EVENING.

A COMBINATION OF A WARM..HUMID..AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING SOUTHERN ONTARIO FROM THE US MIDWEST MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY RACE INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FROM MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS WELL.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS..TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS..INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS CLOSELY MONITORING THIS EVOLVING SITUATION.
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY AS REQUIRED.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:23 AM
Nice. You're a good updater Derecho ;-).
bad news..so I have to go to work now...
and my camera doesn't work...

....

So I'll have to buy a camera while I'm out and the good news though is I get to leave work much earlier. (im a carpet guy)..my partner is going to handle the rest of the job once we get prepped. Big job though..ugh.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:29 AM
A couple of small storms firing ahead of the southern end of the line in Indiana where there are decent parameters to support severe weather.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:50 AM
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for Lower Michigan ahead of the MCS/derecho

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 08:03 AM
Ya, lots of popcorn on radar..but sometimes it can be mistaken for noise.

Alright Derecho. Off to work I go, hopefully be back shortly. Got to get a damned camera!

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 08:09 AM
Off to exams guys see you later

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:51 AM
Kuhn has released an AFR:

1. TODAY AND TONIGHT..POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SCALE HIGH IMPACT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM EVENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO AREAS SW OF A OWEN SOUND TO OSHAWA LINE THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING MUCAPES
OF 2000-3000 J/KG SWRN ONTARIO UNDER STRONG 40-50 KNOT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND WIDE
OPEN WARM SECTOR MAKING IT INTO SWRN ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING TO ALLOW AIRMASS TO COOK AND DESTABILIZE
UNDER AN INVERSION BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS CLOUDINESS AND MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN..WHICH COULD REACH THE BORDER OF SWRN ONT AND MI NEAR
14-15Z IF IT SURVIVES. ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY..OR SOME LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE..OR WARM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS COULD ALL TRIGGER CONVECTION AND WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS AND
FAVOURABLE STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 150-300 M2/S2..WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH SOME SUPERCELLS AND MESOS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TORNADOES BEFORE POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO BOW SEGMENTS OR POSSIBLY A
LINEAR MCS. PRIMARY THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS..AND THERE COULD BE QUITE A FEW REPORTS OF THESE LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER PROBLEM IN THIS JUICY AIRMASS IS
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEAR 50 MM IN THE WARM SECTOR..
RESULTING IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 50 MM
IN UNDER AN HOUR. AREAS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL STORMS IN A ROW COULD
RECEIVE 50-100 MM OF RAIN IN A FEW HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES
WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE..BUT SUFFICE TO SAY
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVE WHICH SHOULD TRACK
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON INTO ERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING
COULD BE DEALING WITH THESE HEFTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS DO GO INTO ERN ONTARIO AND NRN PARTS OF SRN ONTARIO
WITH THE PARENT LOW THIS EVENING..THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY BECOME
MORE ELEVATED LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
AND A SOMEWHAT LESSER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 09:22 AM
Severe thunderstorm watch issued for Essex, Kent, and Lambton counties.

==DISCUSSION==
A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGHOUT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. RADAR IS ALREADY DETECTING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN AND THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WATCH AREAS NEAR NOON.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 09:44 AM
The MCS is really taking it's time as it crosses Lower Michigan. Highest short term risk as outlined by the SPC is the I-94 corridor into Detroit/Windsor.

The development popping up behind the MCS back into Chicago is keeping skies cloudy. Doesn't raise any alarm bells for me, since the SPC and EC are still pretty confident of severe thunderstorms associated with the cold front tonight. But, it bears watching.

EC expects the MCS to arrive in SW ON by noon, so it'll probably pass most of southern Ontario by 3pm, HRRR shows it falls apart around KW/London/Orangeville, so perhaps the skies will clear quickly?

Derecho
06-23-2010, 10:53 AM
The warm front is really picking up forward motion right now in SE MI. It'll reach Sarnia/Windsor within the hour by the looks of it. At this rate, it'll probably clear most of us around 2-3pm.

GRR has begun cancelling the severe thunderstorm watch for their SW MI CWA. They don't expect redevelopment back in Michigan until after 3pm.

I've been out on the deck for the last two hours. The cloud deck is dissipating over central southern Ontario, well I just moved inside now the bees are coming out ;) and I'm wearing a green shirt, anyway where was I? Oh right, the cloud deck over us is thinning, it's already blue sky. The convection along the warm front is dissipating also, means less risk of cloudy conditions after it passes. Could be a plus.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 10:55 AM
Oh! The SREF is in:

00z:
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010062309/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif

03z:
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010062309/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f018.gif

Derecho
06-23-2010, 11:45 AM
The warm front is currently located from Windsor to Sarnia and will reach Chatham and Grand Bend within the hour.
At it's current speed, it could reach Woodstock, Port Burwell, and Listowel within two hours.

Warm front Watch 2010!

Popcorn?

Smokin Joe
06-23-2010, 11:47 AM
I'm in Woodstock right now think the line will stay strong through here. Sun is out skies clearing

Derecho
06-23-2010, 12:12 PM
I'm in Woodstock right now think the line will stay strong through here. Sun is out skies clearing

Are you chasing?

Derecho
06-23-2010, 12:20 PM
SURPRISE! The Moderate Risk has been dropped in a line from Sarnia to Woodstock to Hamilton and all points north. Also, the 10% tornado probabilities for SW ON have all been dropped. Plus, the 30% hail probability has been dropped for most of southern Ontario.

:rolleyes:

Derecho
06-23-2010, 12:26 PM
Here's the 1630z update, the yellow line is the SPC updated Moderate Risk boundary.

Eabie
06-23-2010, 12:30 PM
SURPRISE! The Moderate Risk has been dropped in a line from Sarnia to Woodstock to Hamilton and all points north. Also, the 10% tornado probabilities for SW ON have all been dropped. Plus, the 30% hail probability has been dropped for most of southern Ontario.

:rolleyes:

That is really disappointing.... still, a 30% "slight" chance of damaging winds isn't *so* bad I'm a lot more wary and worried now, but still hopeful.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 12:33 PM
That is really disappointing.... still, a 30% "slight" chance of damaging winds isn't *so* bad I'm a lot more wary and worried now, but still hopeful.

Yup, the 30% wind, 15% hail, and 5% tornado are still in effect for all of us. Unless you're on the shore of Lake Erie, then you're still under the 45%H wind.

Argh! HRRR doesn't look to happy right now. We're slowly busting????

:confused:

Eabie
06-23-2010, 12:36 PM
Yup, the 30% wind, 15% hail, and 5% tornado are still in effect for all of us. Unless you're on the shore of Lake Erie, then you're still under the 45%H wind.

Argh! HRRR doesn't look to happy right now. We're slowly busting????

:confused:

Hmm, I'm not familiar with the different models, etc. What is the HRRR and what does it show that's so damaging to our chances? :/

Derecho
06-23-2010, 12:37 PM
Hmm, I'm not familiar with the different models, etc. What is the HRRR and what does it show that's so damaging to our chances? :/

I blame our bleak outlook on TWN for continuously reporting that tornadoes will destroy southern Ontario today. Their jinxing us.

It should have been over us...
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/t3/2010062314/cref_t3sfc_f12.png

Eabie
06-23-2010, 12:46 PM
You'd describe our chances now as bleak? :/

Derecho
06-23-2010, 12:52 PM
You'd describe our chances now as bleak? :/

No, lol. I was trying to be funny.

We still have good chance. I hope...

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 12:58 PM
Storms today ???

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 01:06 PM
Looks like here i am still in a 30% chance of large hail 45 chance of winds aswll as 5% for a tornado

Smokin Joe
06-23-2010, 01:12 PM
West of Barrie south of georgian bay looks like it has the most instability right now.....I'm giving the radar another 20 min to see if the current line is dying and I'm heading north I think for later on

Derecho
06-23-2010, 01:13 PM
Wow, I need glasses, we're still under the 30% hail!

Derecho
06-23-2010, 01:14 PM
West of Barrie south of georgian bay looks like it has the most instability right now.....I'm giving the radar another 20 min to see if the current line is dying and I'm heading north I think for later on

The warm front poses little to no severe threat. It's what might develop in behind it that's our worry.

EDIT: I meant at this point. MUCAPE is hovering around 2,500j/kg in some places, mostly around Grey-Bruce. The rest of us at a meager 1,000j/kg.

Eabie
06-23-2010, 01:34 PM
No, lol. I was trying to be funny.

We still have good chance. I hope...

Ah - phew. ;) Well, I know you probably don't consider yourself an expert or anything, but you're clearly better versed in the structure and development of storms than I am. So what do you think about our odds now? Be honest - brutally honest if necessary. lol. :P

Derecho
06-23-2010, 01:38 PM
Ah - phew. ;) Well, I know you probably don't consider yourself an expert or anything, but you're clearly better versed in the structure and development of storms than I am. So what do you think about our odds now? Be honest - brutally honest if necessary. lol. :P

DTX feels widespread outbreak of severe weather is unlikely now around Midland/Bad Axe, Michigan then eastward this way. The bow echo that is expected to develop will likely stay confined to SW ON and along the Lake Erie shoreline by the look of it. :shrugs:


Read this excerpt from the 117pm ET AFD update from NWS Detroit:

LATEST SWODY1 HAS TRIMMED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MODERATE
RISK. AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT THAT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE OUTBREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA NOW SEEMS UNLIKELY. NOW WITH THAT
SAID...CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A TORNADO
POTENTIAL. POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A NORTHERN ILLINOIS BOW ECHO
WOULD BRING A RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M 59 DURING THE 21-03Z TIMEFRAME.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 01:39 PM
Stoems today?? Lets hope odda are good

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 01:43 PM
Potential still looks good from kw to hamilyona southwest

DarkSky
06-23-2010, 01:53 PM
Day 1 as of 1:30pm

http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/1134/dy1.gif

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 02:04 PM
Do you guys think we will actually se some severe storms in the area

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 02:11 PM
This is almost looking like a bust. -_____-

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 02:13 PM
Looks like we wont have to worry about not getting heating in because the line that was back in michigan has completley died. What does it mean. Hummmh

Derecho
06-23-2010, 02:29 PM
Now we wait to see what happens. Hopefully the clouds will clear.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 02:31 PM
Ya letss hope odds i say are 80%

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 02:33 PM
K..I'm back from work. Left my partner at the job....gotta get back in the loop :|

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 02:33 PM
From Geoff Coulson
David...yes, today does look like we could be in for some very active weather. Current thinking on the highest risk of severe storms is Southwestern Ontario but the GTA and north could also be in for some big storms. Definitely a situation that bears close attention...we will likely be seeing Watches and Warnings issued later today...

Geoff

Itchy
06-23-2010, 02:43 PM
I'm a little jaded about the London area, don't think I will head out today.....
Hope things go well for those that do, I just have no way to check radar in the car and today's type of setup sucks for blind jumps. Hot and humid still in London but the sky is covered.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 02:45 PM
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BUF&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=99&rainsnow=0&lightning=0

(A0)That one cell is really gaining speed.
nexrad is saying its a meso now.

Went from 12kg/m to 32kg/m in last 10 mins.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 02:47 PM
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BUF&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=99&rainsnow=0&lightning=0

(A0)That one cell is really gaining speed.
nexrad is saying its a meso now.

Went from 12kg/m to 32kg/m in last 10 mins.

Right over Orangeville, moderate lightning, small chance of pea sized hail.

Hardly impressive and weakened on the latest scan.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 02:48 PM
Martin Belanger from TWN says a line of severe storms today

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 02:49 PM
Hahah Derecho don't get my hopes up =-D

My themometer tells me it's 32 degrees where I am. **** is it hot. Its so humid too..can barely see into the distance from all the haze ._.

edit:

Derecho, latest radar says it went from 32kg/m to 35kg/m
you said it was weakening, and also stated it had moderate lightning. Wondering where you're obtaining your information?

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 02:50 PM
edit tonight sorry

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 02:51 PM
My temp is 31

Derecho
06-23-2010, 02:54 PM
Hahah Derecho don't get my hopes up =-D

My themometer tells me it's 32 degrees where I am. **** is it hot. Its so humid too..can barely see into the distance from all the haze ._.

edit:

Derecho, latest radar says it went from 32kg/m to 35kg/m
you said it was weakening, and also stated it had moderate lightning. Wondering where you're obtaining your information?

It bounced back a tinge. It's riding the warm front, could be good for it?

And I get my info off my GRL2A program with a monthly subscription to Allisonhouse.com

Edit: hail size, 0.45", likelihood 0%.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 02:56 PM
THANKYOU!! I've been looking for something like this! You are my saviour.

*muah*
No I'm not gay. >_>

Derecho
06-23-2010, 03:00 PM
THANKYOU!! I've been looking for something like this! You are my saviour.

*muah*
No I'm not gay. >_>

You'll need Gibson Ridge before you get Allison House!!

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 03:00 PM
Tops were level at 18,000ft 30 mins ago, new update boasts 38kg/m and 25,000ft tops.
Meso still. Shell ride for a bit.

Edit: Derecho, hook me up. I'll get this program right away.
second edit: Maybe I am looking at this wrong. It has a hook? Also it just lost steam

Derecho
06-23-2010, 03:08 PM
Tops were level at 18,000ft 30 mins ago, new update boasts 38kg/m and 25,000ft tops.
Meso still. Shell ride for a bit.

Edit: Derecho, hook me up. I'll get this program right away.
second edit: Maybe I am looking at this wrong. It has a hook? Also it just lost steam

It is loosing steam, but it'll affect King City, Claremont, and Markham within 60 minutes. Eventually clipping Oshawa.

If it holds, who knows? Check PM

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 03:36 PM
You guys should see the forecast capes 2500j/kg in our area. Also its getting real sunny here in hamilton hot and humid to

Derecho
06-23-2010, 03:37 PM
Cells firing near Woodstock heading towards Hamilton

Eabie
06-23-2010, 03:37 PM
What do you think the odds are of anything happening here now? I'm not expecting much anymore... quite depressing, really, but I think I'll have learnt my lesson after this. I do retain some hope, but I'm no longer *expecting* anything, let alone a severe storm.

The 2007 severe storms in Winnipeg were fun partly 'cause I didn't know they were coming - I rarely checked the forecasts. Once I was just sitting in my bedroom late at night reading a book when I noticed *incessant* flashing. I stood outside for a moment while everything was very still and quiet and just saw these massive dark clouds with continuous lightning approach.... it was breathtaking. But then when the storm hit, it was a doozy. Trees uprooted all over the place, etc., hail and rain slamming against the house in the 90 km/hr+ winds. I was hoping tonight would be kind of like that again. :) Summers 2008 and 2009 were both boring in Winnipeg, by and large.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 03:39 PM
Eabie...

This is good not bad. Just be patient.

xxCanuck
06-23-2010, 03:41 PM
I really hope we see something.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 03:42 PM
Eabie, most our action is late evening stuff.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 03:43 PM
KW is about to get clipped by the northern end of the line that blew up near Woodstock, the sky is dark to the southwest. ETA 15 minutes if it holds together. It's fluctuating, might be lake breeze convergent, but those are usually slow moving.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 03:44 PM
yes which means great lightning but if there are tornadoes injurys could be greater than during the day luckily i have a weather radio (2 actually)

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 03:47 PM
Im waiting for the spc new outlook

Derecho
06-23-2010, 03:48 PM
Im waiting for the spc new outlook

I'm literally on the edge of my seat lol

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 03:49 PM
ya im studying tech and also keep refreshing the spc

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 03:50 PM
How often does SPC update their outlook? Sometimes I dont see it change for a full day

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 03:51 PM
like 8 hours i think or 12 1 of the two

Derecho
06-23-2010, 03:52 PM
How often does SPC update their outlook? Sometimes I dont see it change for a full day

Day 1:
06z
13z
1630z
20z
01z

Day 2:
07z
1730z

Day 3:
08z

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 03:53 PM
Ok i was wrong

Derecho
06-23-2010, 03:53 PM
Winds gusting about 30kmh here under the line now. No thunder or rain, sitting outside on the deck though. My ashtray just blew all over me. lol

EDITl RAINN!!!

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 03:54 PM
Im so tempted but it will probabley be like a see text or something

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 03:55 PM
Have you guys seen the tornado watch back in illinois

Derecho
06-23-2010, 03:58 PM
No changes to the 20z update

EDIT: We're going to loose intense daytime heating because of the cloud cover. It's breaking in many areas, though. Could still be enough time if it can clear by 5pm.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 03:59 PM
good hasent changed

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 03:59 PM
Dang you beat me derecho

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 04:03 PM
Dave you might want to start putting everything you say into one reply. Or edit them.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 04:04 PM
ya true but i dont feel like clicking edit sooo. But ya mabye i will. Sorry about that

DarkSky
06-23-2010, 04:06 PM
Yah these short msgs are getting a bit crazy. But this is a chit-chat forum so ...

But any time we can put more typing into less posts.. .. the better :D

.. and when a person doesn't quote what they're replying to, the original poster (and the rest of us) have no idea what the poster is talking about.

Anyhoo, I've upped the minimum time between posts to 60 seconds. 'May change it to 2mins. That way we can get more into each post, and we don't end up with 14 pages of posts that have only one line each. Any conversations like that between two people can take place in PMs or in the ChatBox. Thanks! :D

Derecho
06-23-2010, 04:07 PM
Just updated:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g13.2010174.2003_smDTW_vis.jpg

EDIT:
Also, 00z(four hours from now)
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010062315/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f009.gif

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 04:15 PM
Sorry I will try and type as much as i can into a post. Any way i was just watching the weather network and the meteorologist martin belanger said with the line that could sweep through it could have embeded supercells with the possibility of tornadoes. Mutch like august 20th. The humidity is very high hear currentley in the hammer and it looks like a small shower or storm may roll through around the dinner hour. If the sun comes out after these storms that roll through humidity could increase. Also note the dry slot in the michingan indiana illinois area where the temps are close to 30 and there are tornado watches starting to pop up. If the storm comes through us and makes the humidex increase then that will be good. Im sitting at my pc and im sweating very much. ANd i am physically active. Played quarterback for highschool so this is wierd. Very high humidity

Derecho
06-23-2010, 04:15 PM
Ouch, the cell that just passed us dropped the temp 2C... well that isn't that bad, I'm sure we'll recover.

EDIT: just as I post this the sun comes back out!

Date: June 23, 2010 Time: 4:15 pm
Temperature (current): 24.8 °C
Temperature (24 hour max/min): 27.1 °C /16 °C
Humidex: 36
Precipitation (1 hour/24 hour): 0 mm / 0 mm
Relative Humidity/Dew Point: 97 % / 24.2 °C
Wind Speed and Direction: 7.3 km/h SW
Incoming Radiation: 235 W/m2

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 04:17 PM
Ya that wee cell wont do much for your temps. Also Dave. Thats what I've been saying to other people. It could very well organize into the same situation as august 20/09 or august 2nd/06. It's pretty well the same situation. First you get the popups..then silence. Then at around 6:30 7:00. cells form by the passing cold front..then organize..line up..push out..supercells, derechos bobs yer uncle

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 04:17 PM
omg.........when should i leave. i want to, but nothing even close to good has gone up yet.....:(

Derecho
06-23-2010, 04:19 PM
omg.........when should i leave. i want to, but nothing even close to good has gone up yet.....:(

Calm down! Later this evening.

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 04:21 PM
im losing hope for the day. cloud cover still. havent had any sun all day!!!! noooo goood.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 04:22 PM
I wish these storm would come a tad earlier because i have to get some sleep toninght for my last exam tomarrow. But it doesnt look like thats going to hapen. Line of storms should pass through around 10. If there is embeded supercells possibility of tornado warnings would increase substantially.

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 04:22 PM
nevermind just got your reply.

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 04:24 PM
so we are thinking the storms with tornadic potential are coming way later now. yesterday models said 5-7p.m.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 04:24 PM
I wish these storm would come a tad earlier because i have to get some sleep toninght for my last exam tomarrow. But it doesnt look like thats going to hapen. Line of storms should pass through around 10. If there is embeded supercells possibility of tornado warnings would increase substantially.

Not really, in the initial stage discrete supercells could fire capable of producing a few tornadoes, but by the time the main line reaches us it'll become to linear and elevated to produce tornadoes.

Though, brief spin ups, gustnadoes or otherwise, could be possible in the line.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 04:25 PM
im losing hope for the day. cloud cover still. havent had any sun all day!!!! noooo goood.

Where exactley in hamilton are you storm chaser im on the west mountain near chedoke hospital because we have had some sun here today

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 04:27 PM
ok so where are you predicting the initial supercells to go up?

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 04:28 PM
im near carlisle.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 04:29 PM
ok so where are you predicting the initial supercells to go up?

Michigan/SW ON according to the NWS/SPC/EC.

Just wait for the MCD by the SPC that'll signal when development is expected.

EDIT: Sun is out here, clouds are nearly past us. Oh, wow! Bluesky now :)

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 04:31 PM
alright. thanks Derecho

Derecho
06-23-2010, 04:34 PM
Tornado parameters of 6.0 now in place in the Mount Forest area:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#
(note, the map will change when it updates)

I wouldn't get too excited, though. I have no idea how strong flow and forcing are right now.

EDIT: Oh, looks like things are coming together nicely:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

OH! I just noticed the maps don't load with the atmospheric conditions.

I'm looking under Composite Indices>SigToreffective and Supercellcomposite

DarkSky
06-23-2010, 04:39 PM
Latest 12Z soundings have low LI and CAPE values. Only scattered rain clouds passing through southern Ontario right now.

Unless a big front comes through, I can't see much happening today. 'Glad I didn't get all excited about today like many people on the weather list I'm part of. It was being talked about as the event of the year pretty much. But ever since the hype started I've taken the stance of "bwah... I'll wait and see". I've been periodically checking the radar today, but nothing more. If something happens I'll try and shoot it, but I'm not filled with anticipation.

xxCanuck
06-23-2010, 04:39 PM
Do you guys think we will see something soon?

Derecho
06-23-2010, 04:41 PM
Latest 12Z soundings have low LI and CAPE values. Only scattered rain clouds passing through southern Ontario right now.

Unless a big front comes through, I can't see much happening today. 'Glad I didn't get all excited about today like many people on the weather list I'm part of. It was being talked about as the event of the year pretty much. But ever since the hype started I've taken the stance of "bwah... I'll wait and see". I've been periodically checking the radar today, but nothing more. If something happens I'll try and shoot it, but I'm not filled with anticipation.

12z was eight hours ago. Where was this sounding taken?

EDIT: Also, the risk we're under right now hasn't been for the warm front that just cleared Ontario, it's for the cold front that'll come through later tonight.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 04:42 PM
No most lickley later tonight for the good ectivity. SUn has rapidley come out and the humidity is soaring. WOW

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 04:53 PM
Humidity is very high here all day. It's been clear and sunny until that dead cell came over Oshawa. went from 31 to 28 now.

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 04:58 PM
Beautiful sunshine has finally come out. alright some daytime heating

DarkSky
06-23-2010, 05:00 PM
12z was eight hours ago. Where was this sounding taken?

EDIT: Also, the risk we're under right now hasn't been for the warm front that just cleared Ontario, it's for the cold front that'll come through later tonight.

Buffalo sounding. Buffalo and Detroit are on this page: http://www.ontariostorms.com/showthread.php?p=87#post87

Neither were showing much instability.

I know there seems to be a lot of energy in the air right now. VERY humid out. Just nothing to set it off it seems.

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 05:01 PM
the temperature went up three degrees and the humidity is getting pretty good! i hope some nice cells initiate soon...

Derecho
06-23-2010, 05:05 PM
Buffalo sounding. Buffalo and Detroit are on this page: http://www.ontariostorms.com/showthread.php?p=87#post87

Neither were showing much instability.

I know there seems to be a lot of energy in the air right now. VERY humid out. Just nothing to set it off it seems.

That sounding is now 9 hours old, though.

Here's the current 20z sounding for Waterloo...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/RUC_255_2010062320_F00_43.5000N_80.5000W.png

And 20z Niagara... your area is a little less favourable, but things will change I'm sure.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/RUC_255_2010062320_F00_43.0000N_79.5000W.png

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 05:08 PM
ACCN10 CWTO 232030
Convective weather forecast for the province of Ontario
Issued by Environment Canada Ontario region at 4:30 PM EDT Wednesday
23 June 2010.
This forecast is issued at 4 AM and 4.30 PM daily between May 1
And September 30.

Note: this is not a severe weather watch warning or special weather
Statement.

Discussion of thunderstorm potential.

Tonight..There is a moderate threat of severe thunderstorms this
evening south of a line from near Owen Sound to Oshawa. Clusters of
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to erupt near
Lake Michigan during the next few hours and move rapidly towards
Southern Ontario during the evening. The greatest threat for severe
thunderstorms will be over Extreme Southwestern Ontario primarily
For regions along the north shore of Lake Erie including Windsor.
The main severe threat will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 90
km/h and heavy rainfall amounts in excess of 50 mm.

Elsewhere..Scattered strong thunderstorms will produce local
Rainfall amounts up to 50 mm over Central Ontario near the Québec
border. Isolated non severe thunderstorms this evening over
Northwestern Ontario.

Thursday..Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible over
Eastern Ontario in the morning. Otherwise no thunderstorms are
expected in Ontario.

Friday..Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible over
Northeastern Ontario near the international border.

A severe thunderstorm is defined as having one or more of the
following

- wind gusts of 90 km/h or greater.
- hail of 2 centimetres diameter or greater.
- rainfall rate greater than 50 millimetres in 1 hour or less.
- tornadoes

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 05:12 PM
****S goin down.
cape is at 4000

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 05:14 PM
Things are working out niceley. First area has cleared and second has alot of juice to pick up on its way. WHere are the 4000 capes at

Derecho
06-23-2010, 05:17 PM
****S goin down.
cape is at 4000

CAP needs to pop first.

No indications yet even in Michigan that it has yet.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 05:20 PM
Derecho go to the nws and take a look t the quad cities area a nice line forming and explosivley and it looks to be heading this way

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 05:24 PM
Im not sure how to read CAP.
I can see the cape but where can I see the CAP?

DarkSky
06-23-2010, 05:25 PM
****S goin down.
cape is at 4000


From what sounding?

Derecho
06-23-2010, 05:26 PM
Im not sure how to read CAP.
I can see the cape but where can I see the CAP?

There isn't a CAP graphic. CAP is that layer of who knows what that prevents storm formation.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 05:27 PM
From what sounding?

From here:
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 05:29 PM
Ah, yes I knew that much. I assumed you had visual information.

Well, I don't see any reason why the cap should be too strong. I mean the air is so riddled with fuel..you walk outside and you're covered in humidity/fuel ...all you need is the vaccuum. The trigger is on its way. And..with the cape being so high and only growing..it's like shooting an baret .50 cal at a glass window ._..

Derecho
06-23-2010, 05:36 PM
Ah, yes I knew that much. I assumed you had visual information.

Well, I don't see any reason why the cap should be too strong. I mean the air is so riddled with fuel..you walk outside and you're covered in humidity/fuel ...all you need is the vaccuum. The trigger is on its way. And..with the cape being so high and only growing..it's like shooting an baret .50 cal at a glass window ._..

We could use some flow to get things going. Southern Ontario, Michigan, Ohio, and Iowa are notorious for CAP.

EDIT Backyard report: What an awesome day for sitting outside! :thumbsup:

Derecho
06-23-2010, 05:48 PM
Latest HRRR runs are depressing.

It's official: I'm calling a bust.

If HRRR is true, overnight action 1-2am.

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 05:50 PM
awwww :( thats too bad

Nagii
06-23-2010, 05:50 PM
How disappointing.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 05:52 PM
oh poo. An hrrr model says bust even though the atmosphere is ripe.

So you all get sad. Sigh*
Concentrate on this, you can make it happen. Trust me..reality isn't what it seams.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 05:54 PM
You watch..itll happen... Ill be damned if I'm going to let a forced reality consume me. I have say in this..and being one of the most powerful beings on Earth, I shall help this organize. ..

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 05:55 PM
Thats just gay. With all the super computers they have they can predict if we have a chance to get storms. Like moderate risk and we get nothing slight risk and we get a dang tornado outbreak. Nice line back in the corn belt. Iowa illinois

Derecho
06-23-2010, 05:56 PM
I was kidding guys!!! Lighten up.

HRRR knows nothing lol.

DarkSky
06-23-2010, 05:57 PM
From here:
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

But that's a radar image. For sounding data you need a site that shows the data relayed back from the actual weather sounding balloons. (there are some 'fake' sounding datas that are released by satellites but they're just computer projections). The only real way to get sounding data based on pressure, humidty, etc.. on a parcel of air is to send a physical device up through it. And as far as I know soundings are only done twice a day ( ? )

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 05:58 PM
Wow nice derecho so there is still hope bacause i relly think that this line back in iowa illionois area could really give us some severe storms they are tornado warned

Derecho
06-23-2010, 05:59 PM
But that's a radar image. For sounding data you need a site that shows the data relayed back from the actual weather sounding balloons. (there are some 'fake' sounding datas that are released by satellites but they're just computer projections). The only real way to get sounding data based on pressure, humidty, etc.. on a parcel of air is to send a physical device up through it. And as far as I know soundings are only done twice a day ( ? )

Yes, but you select what current map you want to see. No worries, it's the SPC Mesoscale Analysis page, it's pretty credible since the NWS use it to make AFD forecasts.

Nagii
06-23-2010, 06:01 PM
There was a small meso cell in the lower niagara region, near lake erie. :/ Currently watching the live feed from the storms in Illinois

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 06:06 PM
I should get a big 4x4 truck. Get some sexy gear on it. Big tires, elevate it..
put STORM \---/TRACKER with a twister in the middle then at the bottom somewheres put; "Ontariostorms.com"
\ /
:D

LMAO NAGII!! We're so pathetic we have to watch some live-feed webcam shot of a storm somewhere else LMAO!!!

Nagii
06-23-2010, 06:12 PM
I should get a big 4x4 truck. Get some sexy gear on it. Big tires, elevate it..
put STORM \---/TRACKER with a twister in the middle then at the bottom somewheres put; "Ontariostorms.com"
\ /
:D

LMAO NAGII!! We're so pathetic we have to watch some live-feed webcam shot of a storm somewhere else LMAO!!!

It's looking so niiiiiice, I'm so jealous. D: Greening sky and everything!

The cell around Bruce Power is producing Hail.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 06:22 PM
Storms are firing in western New York.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 06:23 PM
yayyyy new york -_-

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 06:25 PM
To bad there not here like wth its going to be a pretty dull night. But look at the nice clear slot from us to chicago

Derecho
06-23-2010, 06:25 PM
yayyyy new york -_-

I know!!

Congrats New York!!

I'm sure you owe us a favour, dearest NY.

Nagii
06-23-2010, 06:25 PM
yayyyy new york -_-

I was thinking the same thing. They are just getting hammered. Ugh, get here faster storms... the Illinois storm hasn't produced a Tornado yet...how awesome of a storm would be have, if it would just birth one already?

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 06:28 PM
Im sure that big storm in the US can **** one out for us >=(

Nagii
06-23-2010, 06:29 PM
Im sure that big storm in the US can **** one out for us >=(

So far it's been a long 34 mins of labour....that system needs to push already. xD

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 06:30 PM
I have an idea.
let's all get behind and push o_o..no srsly..
One average guy can lift over 100lbs..cant he?..comn..

all together..I MEAN TBHINK OF THE POSSIBLITES..
LEIK..600LBS ER SUMMIT TO PUSH KT!?!?
kthx

ontariolightning
06-23-2010, 06:32 PM
The primary concern is damaging wind gusts

Nagii
06-23-2010, 06:33 PM
Saa, something tells me this incoming storm may skip Niagara.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 06:33 PM
K...I'm gunna makeshift my own storm..

*turns on all my fans in the house pointed at me
*turns on fog machine
*Puts on sprinkler
*Turns off lights
*Turns on strobe lights
*Plays recording of thunder

kthx.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 06:34 PM
Rapid development in Muskoka District Municipality

Nagii
06-23-2010, 06:35 PM
K...I'm gunna makeshift my own storm..

*turns on all my fans in the house pointed at me
*turns on fog machine
*Puts on sprinkler
*Turns off lights
*Turns on strobe lights
*Plays recording of thunder

kthx.

Heh, don't forget a camera so you can film it.

Hmn, Illinois storm producing a very greenish sky again

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 06:36 PM
i hope they spark up soon. on ec convective weather outlook it says storms will erupt over lake michigan and move over southern ontario this evening. But nothing yet. hmmm. im starting to think our chances are getting pretty slim. this sucks.

Nagii
06-23-2010, 06:39 PM
Yet, the weather network in all it's fail glory seems oblivious to the meso cell around Bruce Power.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 06:41 PM
The Weather Network is like a blonde ditz with a sports car.

They are CRAP

Derecho
06-23-2010, 06:43 PM
This should be a tornado warning!!!!!!! Radar indicates a hook and intense rotation.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 6:40 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 23 JUNE 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= MIDLAND - COLDWATER - ORR LAKE
=NEW= ORILLIA - LAGOON CITY - WASHAGO.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
RADAR IS DETECTING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EAST OF MIDLAND MOVING
EASTWARD AT 50 KM/H. THIS STORM IS SHOWING A RADAR SIGNATURE OF
ROTATION AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

Nagii
06-23-2010, 06:43 PM
The Weather Network is like a blonde ditz with a sports car.

They are CRAP

People always argue with me concerning TWN. When I state something they always say, well the TWN says this and nothing of storms. Though I would trust them to safe any lives.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 06:43 PM
Last radar shows blue specs by owen sound...^_^...you know what that means
POPCORN
DIP
LINE
DERECHO =-v

kthx.

ontariolightning
06-23-2010, 06:45 PM
Tornado warning for Chi town

DarkSky
06-23-2010, 06:46 PM
Thats just gay. With all the super computers they have they can predict if we have a chance to get storms. Like moderate risk and we get nothing slight risk and we get a dang tornado outbreak. Nice line back in the corn belt. Iowa illinois

That's why I never listen to forecasts. Like a week ago they were calling for rain all weekend. I canceled my plans to go up to the cottage because of it and it turned out to be clear skies. Usually I NEVER rely on the forecasts because you have just as much chance of forecasting it by blindfolding yourself and pointing to various words written on the wall.. "rain" "sunny" "20C" etc...

The only sure way to get the weather is to look out the window ;)

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 06:51 PM
Owen sound to kincardine, spotty popcorns now.
See..cap is breaking.

ontariolightning
06-23-2010, 06:52 PM
Cells are developing off of Lake Michigan in Western Michigan

Derecho
06-23-2010, 06:53 PM
Development in Michigan now, too.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 06:54 PM
Coldwater just shot up two new cells of the meso. Deep reflectivity within just a few minutes.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 06:56 PM
Coldwater just shot up two new cells of the meso. Deep reflectivity within just a few minutes.

Yes, they are exploding... and rotating.

ontariolightning
06-23-2010, 06:56 PM
which Coldwater? there's like a Coldwater in every state and province

Nagii
06-23-2010, 06:57 PM
Mhn, this is now getting exciting. The storm in Illinois is now flagging Tornado Warnings.

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN FOREST COUNTY IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...
NORTHEASTERN LANGLADE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...

ontariolightning
06-23-2010, 06:58 PM
If anyone cares, that storm that is going through Chicago has confirmed 78 mph winds

Derecho
06-23-2010, 06:58 PM
which Coldwater? there's like a Coldwater in every state and province

Simcoe County, NW of Orillia.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 06:59 PM
Tornado south of buffalo, also producing 3inch hail

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:00 PM
Tornado Watch soon for southern Michigan.

ontariolightning
06-23-2010, 07:00 PM
Where is the TOR warning for BUF?

Nagii
06-23-2010, 07:01 PM
Tornado south of buffalo, also producing 3inch hail

Where are you looking I can't find it. -blind-

ontariolightning
06-23-2010, 07:02 PM
The Derecho is veering SE, that really sucks

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:02 PM
Meso with rotation, possibly tornado south of buffalo, also producing 3inch hail. Very high cloud tops. Def HP

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 07:02 PM
So what about the action for us it is all north or south. Models were looking promising but now is it a bust.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:03 PM
Towers going up around here

EDIT: Tornado Warning now in WRN NY.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:04 PM
This is it. It's now or never. It's definitely trying to fire up now. Latest Analysis suggest potentially large line of storms.

Nagii
06-23-2010, 07:06 PM
This is it. It's now or never. It's definitely trying to fire up now. Latest Analysis suggest potentially large line of storms.

Lets not get to inflated...don't want to jinx it.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:06 PM
WFCN11 CWTO 232304
TORNADO WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 7:04 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 23 JUNE 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= MIDLAND - COLDWATER - ORR LAKE
=NEW= ORILLIA - LAGOON CITY - WASHAGO.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WARNING FOR:
MIDLAND - COLDWATER - ORR LAKE
ORILLIA - LAGOON CITY - WASHAGO.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
RADAR IS DETECTING A SEVERE ROTATING STORM LIKELY PRODUCING A
TORNADO. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR MIDLAND AND THERE ARE REPORTS
OF FUNNEL CLOUDS NEAR ORILLIA.

ontariolightning
06-23-2010, 07:08 PM
Lake Breeze thunderstorms developing off of Georgian Bay

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:08 PM
Major damage reported in Midland. Ambulances en route.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 07:09 PM
Tornado warning around the buffalo storm

Nagii
06-23-2010, 07:09 PM
WFCN11 CWTO 232304
TORNADO WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 7:04 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 23 JUNE 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= MIDLAND - COLDWATER - ORR LAKE
=NEW= ORILLIA - LAGOON CITY - WASHAGO.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WARNING FOR:
MIDLAND - COLDWATER - ORR LAKE
ORILLIA - LAGOON CITY - WASHAGO.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
RADAR IS DETECTING A SEVERE ROTATING STORM LIKELY PRODUCING A
TORNADO. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR MIDLAND AND THERE ARE REPORTS
OF FUNNEL CLOUDS NEAR ORILLIA.

Took them long enough.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:10 PM
Major damage reported in Midland. Ambulances en route.

Provide a source?

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:12 PM
Draw a line, midland to kincardine.
First wave
Draw a line, midland to orangeville
Lead wave
Leach off first.

Swoop down to GTA
thats my weather prediction.
XD

otherwise any cells that popup might 'train' to the east.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:13 PM
Tornado Warning issued for Kawartha Lakes, City of

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:18 PM
Provide a source?

The Weather Network!

Intense rotation now 7 miles east of Washago heading for Norland and Coboconk.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:19 PM
LMAO Sorry derecho!! I never check them I didn't even think of itXD!!!

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:21 PM
New analysis shows atmosphere 'stabilizing' ..bleh.

Nagii
06-23-2010, 07:28 PM
There is now a Tornado Warning south of Buffalo

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 07:29 PM
how long till that tornado watch reaches Southern On, hmmm....i hope it does.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 07:31 PM
Probabley never the line near chicago is moving south east. I hope it does to and i hope the line builds.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:31 PM
Lots of cells developing from Owen Sound to Orangeville.

Nagii
06-23-2010, 07:31 PM
UUUUGH, this tease isn't fun.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:31 PM
the 'popcorn' effect I was talking about is now showing signs of juicing.

This is good.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 07:35 PM
The SPC must see something none of us do like 45% winds 30 perecent hail and 10% tornado. the 10% tornado has really shown truth EDIT: now look at the hrrr it looks like we could get some of that line afterall

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:39 PM
Are you guys seeing towers popping up around you? They're all over the place here.

ontariolightning
06-23-2010, 07:40 PM
Suns going to be going down soon

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:41 PM
The storms are riding some sort of jet streak from northern Lower Michigan down to here then northeast to Peterborough

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 07:41 PM
i am for sure. and ya lots of new cells building....i can only hope one will head this way.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:42 PM
Latest radar shows by KW area the boundary of the popcorn effect extending downwards. I wonder if my prediction will come true :D

Derecho
06-23-2010, 07:43 PM
Rotation right over the town of Norland, Kawartha Lakes County

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 07:50 PM
Im starting to see towers pop up

Nagii
06-23-2010, 07:52 PM
Saa it's gonna be quiet here for awhile. uu;

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:54 PM
If it doesnt happen now it wont happen. Once the sun is down..bleh.

Nagii
06-23-2010, 07:55 PM
If it doesnt happen now it wont happen. Once the sun is down..bleh.

Well there goes Niagara's shot uu;

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:00 PM
RED ALERT issued for central southern Ontario by the Ontario government.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:01 PM
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 8:02 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 23 JUNE 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= APSLEY - WOODVIEW - NORTHERN PETERBOROUGH COUNTY
FENELON FALLS - BALSAM LAKE PARK - NORTHERN KAWARTHA LAKES.

RADAR IS DETECTING A SEVERE ROTATING STORM POSSIBLY PRODUCING A
TORNADO NEAR COBOCONK. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR MIDLAND
WITH THIS STORM.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 08:04 PM
All im saying is this is a probable big bust. Little bit of pop corn on radar in line with the line in illionois indiana arean aswell as the midland storm

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:04 PM
Radar is indicating very strong rotation 5km south of Kinmount, or about 10km east of Coboconk. We're talking strong rotation, and NROT indicates the high likelihood of a tornado.

Nagii
06-23-2010, 08:06 PM
All im saying is this is a probable big bust

Not for centre ontario though. They seem to have alot action, then again they are quite flat up there. We may still have luck with the incoming cells, but they seem to be loosing steam over Lake M.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 08:11 PM
Remember august 9th of last year. Could be like that

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 08:15 PM
im calling it off unfortunately :( i dont think anything will come today....BUST!

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 08:16 PM
...latest analysis shows...500 for the cape.....at maximum..all the goodies have withered away...

Nagii
06-23-2010, 08:16 PM
Remember august 9th of last year. Could be like that

I preferred June 8th or 4th last year. It was a Sunday when we got a Tornado Warning for the Niagara Region and I had watched it roll into St. Kitts, it has promising effects then frizzled out. T_T

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 08:17 PM
!BUST!!BUST!!BUST!!BUST!!BUST!

Nagii
06-23-2010, 08:19 PM
!BUST!!BUST!!BUST!!BUST!!BUST!


There is still a chance with the incoming line

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 08:20 PM
How bout u derecho calling it a bust, look at the storms in the illinois indiana area wouldnt mind haveing them also the midland storm its a dandy. Nagii i agree something gotta give considering the models

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:21 PM
State of Emergency issued for Midland

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:22 PM
How bout u derecho calling it a bust, look at the storms in the illinois indiana area wouldnt mind haveing them also the midland storm its a dandy. Nagii i agree something gotta give considering the models

Not busting, look at central southern Ontario! May have been a wedge tornado.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 08:23 PM
How bout u derecho calling it a bust, look at the storms in the illinois indiana area wouldnt mind haveing them also the midland storm its a dandy. Nagii i agree something gotta give considering the models

Yes but that was earlier. Now look at the current analysis..

the atmosphere is 'stabilizing'......the atmosphere isn't in much of a different state then if you werent expecting storms at all.

DarkSky
06-23-2010, 08:23 PM
RED ALERT issued for central southern Ontario by the Ontario government.

They have colour codings now? Oh gawd....

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 08:23 PM
True that would have been nice but for us i mean, i think it could be possible in coming hours

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:24 PM
Something on Detroit radar near Bad Axe, nothing big, but bears watching.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 08:25 PM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
NORTHWESTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
WESTERN LAGRANGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
ELKHART COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
EASTERN STARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT/830 PM CDT/

* AT 824 PM EDT/724 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH. THESE SEVERE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF DOWAGIAC
TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTH LIBERTY TO 11 MILES WEST OF KNOX...
AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.


Now those are strong winds

Nagii
06-23-2010, 08:28 PM
Does anyone know the track for the storm in Illinois? Is it sinking further south or cutting straight ahead, will it catch upwards and go into S. Ontario at all? It's hard to tell...

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 08:28 PM
90mph!? WOW :|!!!!

Also...didn't realize it but temperatures have gone up since cloud cover has retreated..its 8:30 now but temps have gone up 1-2 degrees..and humidity as gone up alot..for example..my place..went down to 26! with humidity of 33..now it's 28...with humidity of 38...same for toronto..o_O..heh

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:29 PM
Does anyone know the track for the storm in Illinois? Is it sinking further south or cutting straight ahead, will it catch upwards and go into S. Ontario at all? It's hard to tell...

East-southeast by the looks of it.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 08:31 PM
Our best chance is this possible line forming in the gery bruce area

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:32 PM
Aside from the tornado up north and the development in SE MI.... who knows.

We're probably still capped. Maybe. I don't know.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 08:34 PM
ya but look at the new analysis derecho:S

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 08:35 PM
why what is the dercho anylis showing

Nagii
06-23-2010, 08:35 PM
East-southeast by the looks of it.


Well shucks.

TWN is saying between 12am - 4am for St. Catharines in terms of Thunderstorms. Sigh. Though their word isn't always gold.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:35 PM
ya but look at the new analysis derecho:S

Which analysis?

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 08:37 PM
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 08:37 PM
ya but look at the new analysis derecho:S What do you see Raedwulf. DO you mean the one in the inidian area or one that could form. OPPS MY BAD. i never knew u were talking to derecho, but what do u see

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:44 PM
What do you see Raedwulf. DO you mean the one in the inidian area or one that could form. OPPS MY BAD. i never knew u were talking to derecho, but what do u see

Less than stellar atmospheric conditions?

Must have hope.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 08:45 PM
So good or bad. Less then stellar u mean bad right. Lets wait for the new spc model only 8 minutes

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:47 PM
Tornado Watch issued for Essex and Kent Counties now.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 8:51 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 23 JUNE 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

TORNADO WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT.

..CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS EVENING..

==DISCUSSION==
WITH A COMBINATION OF MOIST WARM AIR AND A WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF WINDSOR THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 08:53 PM
Still 25C here with a DP of 24C. Also, very humid still at 36C. Come on capping, pop!!

Please, Mother Nature? Pretty, pretty please? With a cherry on top!

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 08:55 PM
hmmmm Tornado Watch now extended into Windsor-Chatham area.

Cmon please move a little north :P

Nagii
06-23-2010, 08:55 PM
Now we just need it further north...maybe alittle to the east please :D

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 08:58 PM
Do you guys think it is going to pop

ontariolightning
06-23-2010, 08:58 PM
Now we just need it further north...maybe alittle to the east please :D

I'm pretty satisfied with that, seeing as I'm from Chatham Kent

Nagii
06-23-2010, 08:59 PM
It's getting dark and cloudy :D

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 09:01 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html potential for wind damage went up heh

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 09:02 PM
well, the line is intensifying around detroit :) i sure hope it has enough steam to make it all the way to Hamilton!

Nagii
06-23-2010, 09:03 PM
It better make it's way to st. catharines, thought I much prefer it during the day, I dislike watching for funnels at night uu;

Eabie
06-23-2010, 09:03 PM
The latest SPC outlook has removed all of Southern Ontario from the moderate zones - hail, tornadoes, high winds. It's all out. We're now 15% high winds, 5% hail, and 2% tornadoes.

DarkSky
06-23-2010, 09:04 PM
It's happened twice already in this thread so I just want to state to everyone, NO PROFANITY is allowed. Even disguised profanity using symbols or different spelling.

Thank you.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 09:04 PM
looking at the new spc it looks like we are still in a slight with 30% chance damaging winds and a hatched area 15 for hail and 2 for a tornado
ONGOING CONVECTION HAS RENDERED THE ATMOSPHERE LESS UNSTABLE FARTHER
EAST FROM WRN PA INTO WRN NY. THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE EWD
MIGRATING WLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME EWD
DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME...SUGGESTING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
MAY INCREASE IN THIS REGION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TIME OF DAY
SUGGESTS DESTABILIZATION OF THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL REMAIN
LIMITED. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE TRIMMED THE MODERATE RISK OUT OF
SWRN NY AND WRN PA FOR TONIGHT...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK
AS WELL AS RISK FOR ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE

Storm Chaser
06-23-2010, 09:05 PM
Well there is a tornado watch now for windor-chatham-leamington, so who do we believe. i hope those slim odds turn out for us.

Derecho
06-23-2010, 09:07 PM
The latest SPC outlook has removed all of Southern Ontario from the moderate zones - hail, tornadoes, high winds. It's all out. We're now 15% high winds, 5% hail, and 2% tornadoes.

Party time!

Nagii
06-23-2010, 09:07 PM
Someone in weather reporting land needs to get their facts straight.

Eabie
06-23-2010, 09:15 PM
I just noticed my post diverges quite a bit from Dave's. Did I misread the report? To be honest, it is a bit difficult to tell exactly whether we'd be in the 15% or 30% frame for high winds. Everyone else seems to be optimistic both here and on the Accuweather forum.... to be honest, I did have a little bit to drink to handle the anxiety of today and soothe my nerves, so I don't know anymore. lol.

davefootball123
06-23-2010, 09:18 PM
i was refering from about hamilton niagara south and west

Derecho
06-23-2010, 09:24 PM
I just noticed my post diverges quite a bit from Dave's. Did I misread the report? To be honest, it is a bit difficult to tell exactly whether we'd be in the 15% or 30% frame for high winds. Everyone else seems to be optimistic both here and on the Accuweather forum.... to be honest, I did have a little bit to drink to handle the anxiety of today and soothe my nerves, so I don't know anymore. lol.

I was being sarcastic.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 09:29 PM
Alright, so it's a bust.
Mind you, cape went back up to 1000
but sun is down..all the cells are dieing...nothing else popping up..cap..too..strong..like you said Derecho. Must have been the reason..there was plenty of moisture and lift..bleh.

ontariolightning
06-23-2010, 09:30 PM
You should ask the people in Midland if they think the day was a bust