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davefootball123
06-19-2010, 10:12 PM
Hopefully we see some storms through mid week. I have exams in the morning and that leaves storms open for the rest of the day

Derecho
06-20-2010, 12:09 PM
Derecho tomorrow... and Wednesday!

If the warm boundary could shift a bit north tomorrow, KW/Hammer/Tor could get in on some late evening/early overnight action/
I'm desperate.

Same for Wednesday.

Eabie
06-20-2010, 02:36 PM
Environment Canada says that there's the risk of a thunderstorm tomorrow evening in KW, and Accuweather says there's a 90% chance of one. (Mind you, Accuweather said there was a 95% chance of one yesterday and nothing happened; they said the same another time, for June 12th I think, and then they lowered their estimate to something like only 30% the next day and of course nothing happened. Can't say I put much stock in their probabilities.)

Meanwhile, the Weather Network predicts nothing tomorrow and only isolated showers for Tuesday and Thursday though. :/ Who do you trust?

davefootball123
06-20-2010, 02:43 PM
Look at tomarrow night. SPC says slight risk with a 30% buble in red when you move to the probalistic. Slight for tuesday as well. Lets hope. Guys we better get some severe storms. I just got a new weather radio for my b-day

Derecho
06-20-2010, 09:17 PM
Derecho tomorrow... and Wednesday!

If the warm boundary could shift a bit north tomorrow, KW/Hammer/Tor could get in on some late evening/early overnight action/
I'm desperate.

Same for Wednesday.

Hmm.. I'm a day ahead. Not Wednesday. Tuesday!! :D

So, looks like a derecho is forming across Kansas/Nebraska right now.

Eabie
06-21-2010, 08:49 AM
I'm just a novice, but he SPC's day 3 outlook, for Wednesday June 23rd, looks fairly promising for southern Ontario (only 15% probability, but it encompasses the whole area). Environment Canada just predicts showers for Wednesday, though, and sees a thunderstorm risk instead for tomorrow. Nobody seems to be predicting much of anything happening here for tonight.

Derecho
06-21-2010, 03:27 PM
For Wednesday from the SPC:

IT APPEARS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT
COULD UNFOLD WITH MCS ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES FROM NRN IL...EWD TOWARD
LAKE ERIE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.


South end of the SLGT.

seziou
06-21-2010, 07:41 PM
Hello !

I made the forcast with the model GFS (http://www.wetterzentrale.de). Tomorrow, I think we will have severe storms in the afternoon. I hope to catch some lightening in the night.

Wait and See.

Derecho
06-21-2010, 09:11 PM
Why are our storm chances always three days away? Today is busty, overnight action. Doesn't look good. Tomorrow, the majority of the action should stay well south of southern Ontario. It keeps pushing further south. Could be a moderate risk day across Indiana.

Wednesday, come on!!

Dear Mother Nature,
I cannot emphasize enough how much I would really like a severe thunderstorm to hit Kitchener/Waterloo on Wednesday. Please consider sending a storm my way, I've been a very good boy and to add credence to that statement, do note: Santa has never given me a lump of coal for Christmas so I feel I really deserve a thunderstorm on Wesnesday.

Thanks in advance,
Mike.

davefootball123
06-21-2010, 10:50 PM
Guys we have top hope. We just gotta hope. I think that 2009 was a pretty good year for storms but his year meh. So far at least. Come on lets pick it up please.

Derecho
06-22-2010, 02:10 AM
Severe chances increasing overnight tonight for southern Ontario.

Essex, Kent, & Lambton Counties now under watches!

Derecho
06-22-2010, 03:08 AM
45% severe probabilities introduced for southern Ontario on the new SPC day 2 outlook.

45% is usually a Moderate Risk, but right now, Slight Risk is kept.

seziou
06-22-2010, 04:59 AM
Yeah, the radar is great for southern :)

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 08:48 AM
Wow 45% in southern ontatio

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 12:01 PM
I have never seen a 45% for our area on a day 2 outlook or any outlook for that matter. What do you guys think. Im thinking possible supercells ahead of a large line of sever storms that may have possible wind damage

Derecho
06-22-2010, 12:08 PM
I have never seen a 45% for our area on a day 2 outlook or any outlook for that matter. What do you guys think. Im thinking possible supercells ahead of a large line of sever storms that may have possible wind damage

Southern Ontario was under a High Risk in 2001 I think, or 2002. The wording in the outlook sure sounds like derecho expected. Long-lived MCS complex, traveling from the Dakotas to the Great Lakes? Uh, ya! Derech :D

Sure sounds like supercells may fire ahead of the possible line:

A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF A LONGER LIVED
FAST MOVING SEVERE MCS. ADDITIONALLY...IF ISOLATED DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAN EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COMPLEX...SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES DESPITE THE VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF THE EARLY MORNING MCS IS AS
ORGANIZED AS EXPECTED.

DarkSky
06-22-2010, 02:10 PM
You can see how the moderate area is coming in front the west and appears to be moving straight across southwestern Ontario:

Day 1 :

http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/9476/temp0.gif

Day 2:

http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/6040/tempe.gif

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 02:25 PM
IT may not say moderate for southern ontario yet but look at the probalistic 45% is all the way up to niagara toronto area. And that could become moderate. There is also a hatched area near the border

Derecho
06-22-2010, 02:34 PM
This is looking like our best threat since August 19, 2005!!!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2005/day1otlk_20050819_1630.html

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 02:38 PM
ya. And derecho what do you think. Do you think solid or broken line with some supercells or do you think solid line causing wind damage with supercells out front. According to the spc 45% is mdt risk on a day 2 outlook.

Derecho
06-22-2010, 02:52 PM
ya. And derecho what do you think. Do you think solid or broken line with some supercells or do you think solid line causing wind damage with supercells out front. According to the spc 45% is mdt risk on a day 2 outlook.

Looks like a derecho will come through sometime in the morning, then late Wednesday a second line of storms will push through with the cold front.

If the morning convection slows down and doesn't clear out of southern Ontario in time, we'll be screwed by cloud cover preventing instability for the storms later in the day.

As for a tornado threat, I don't see why not. But, looks like the SPC is thinking tornadoes will be limited to the initial development back in Chicagoland.

NAM is indicating high EHI 0-1km values tomorrow from the start of the day to about London. Then, the values fluctuate through most of tornado then reappear along the Lake Erie shoreline. We'll have to wait and see what happens. I'll have a look at SREF today.

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 02:58 PM
I hope the morning convection doesnt slow down. And the morning convection what time are we talking about

Derecho
06-22-2010, 04:16 PM
I hope the morning convection doesnt slow down. And the morning convection what time are we talking about

13z... ish.

Sometime after 9am by the looks of it

Storm Chaser
06-22-2010, 05:01 PM
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SE WI...NE/NCNTRL
IL...EXTREME NRN IND...MUCH OF LOWER MI AND EXTREME NW OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN NEW
ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EJECTION AND AMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS WILL
TRACK FROM PARTS OF IA EWD ALONG A NWD DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO
MI/SWRN ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY.

...UPPER MS VLY INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER WILL AFFECT A CORRIDOR
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS WILL BE THE NOCTURNAL MCS/POSSIBLE DERECHO
EXPECTED TO ONGOING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EWD ACROSS LAKE MI AND INTO AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI DURING
THE MORNING THEN SWRN ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS
DOWNSTREAM WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER IN WAKE OF TODAY/S DEPARTING
IMPULSE...AT LEAST AS FAR N AS SRN LOWER MI. AS A RESULT...THERE IS
SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DAMAGING WIND RISKS
DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INITIAL WEAKENING TREND OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY
LESS UNSTABLE REGIME OVER THE CNTRL/LOWER GREAT LAKES.

AFTERNOON ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON THE 30-60 METER HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE. THERE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AIR MASS WILL RECOVER OVER PARTS OF UPPER
MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH AN EXTENSIVE ZONE OF
LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS ANTICIPATED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN WAKE OF
DISSOLVING MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL BOOST MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG AND
NEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM SRN WI/NRN IL BY MID-AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT STRONG
SPEED SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL PROFILES WITH LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER MCS BY EVENING...TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND WITH HIGH WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY
EVENTUALLY REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
12Z THURSDAY WITH RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
RECOVERS RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.

Smokin Joe
06-22-2010, 05:08 PM
ACCN10 CWTO 221951
Convective weather forecast for the province of Ontario
Issued by Environment Canada Ontario region
At 3:51 PM EDT Tuesday 22 June 2010.
This forecast is issued at 4 AM and 4.30 PM daily between May 1
And September 30.

Note: this is not a severe weather watch warning or special weather
Statement.

Discussion of thunderstorm potential.


Tonight..Isolated non-severe thunderstorms over northwestern..
Northern and Eastern Ontario this evening.

Wednesday..There is slight risk of severe thunderstorms over
Southwestern Ontario late Wednesday morning and a moderate risk of
more widespread severe thunderstorms over Southern Ontario in the
late afternoon and early evening. The main threats from the morning
storms are damaging winds and heavy downpours. The main threats
From the late day storms are damaging winds..Large hail and isolated
tornadoes. Torrential downpours giving very heavy rainfall amounts
are also a threat.
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are likely over Northern
Ontario in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday..Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible over
Eastern Ontario in the morning. Otherwise no thunderstorms are
expected in Ontario.

A severe thunderstorm is defined as having one or more of the
following

- wind gusts of 90 km/h or greater.
- hail of 2 centimetres diameter or greater.
- rainfall rate greater than 50 millimetres in 1 hour or less.
- tornadoes

END/OSPC

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 05:42 PM
I hope we get some dandys. I want to ask you guys. Do you think most souther ontarioans will get storms.

Derecho
06-22-2010, 05:55 PM
I hope we get some dandys. I want to ask you guys. Do you think most souther ontarioans will get storms.

Looks like it has the potential to become a high impact event, especially considering there could be multiple rounds of severe weather.

It feels like Christmas!!

WEDNESDAY..THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A MODERATE RISK OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE MORNING
STORMS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE DAMAGING WINDS..LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS GIVING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE ALSO A THREAT.

Storm Chaser
06-22-2010, 06:03 PM
:)Wednesday..There is slight risk of severe thunderstorms over
Southwestern Ontario late Wednesday morning and a moderate risk of
more widespread severe thunderstorms over Southern Ontario in the
late afternoon and early evening. The main threats from the morning
storms are damaging winds and heavy downpours. The main threats
From the late day storms are damaging winds..Large hail and isolated
tornadoes. Torrential downpours giving very heavy rainfall amounts
are also a threat.
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are likely over Northern
Ontario in the afternoon and evening.

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 06:20 PM
Hey guys, I am new here ;-)! I'm so glad to see this forum. I have been fascinated and ABSOLUTELY BLOWN AWAY by severe weather..ESPECIALLY Mesocyclones. I took tomorrow off from work to track every bit of this potential brute.

I have a good feeling. The risk seems only to grow as well. So thus far, from even three days ago it's in our favor.

Hopefully I will have pictures and radar to post up tomorrow if anything happens.
Bring on the teeth ;-)

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 06:50 PM
Hey guys just to let you know i will be can warn spotting out of my home after my exams. Im going to take pics and have my weather radio on hand. Lets just hope this whole thing materializes and we get a mcs or derecho and some supercells during the day. that way everyone will get storms

Derecho
06-22-2010, 07:01 PM
If I had a nickel for every possible significant severe weather outbreak potential we've had in the last 10 yrs that busted or was very underwhelming, I'd be a millionaire by now. :D

I don't want to get my hopes up, Southern Ontario/Lower Michigan/Western New York/Northern Ohio are all notorious for severe weather busts. As we've all come to realize :rolleyes:

My biggest concern is the concern being expressed by the NWS Detroit office regarding the timing of the MCS to push through Lower Michingan/SRN Ontario. If it's late, we could be cloudy during peak heating in the afternoon, if it's early, we're in the go.

But, NWS KLOT had a weather radio briefing at 4pm discussing the possibility of a strong tornado somewhere in the Chicagoland/Lower Michigan area. Could be a really significant day for someone. Could bust.

Whatever the case, make sure you've got your tornado safe area prepared, with bottled water, granola bars, some cash, first aid, blankets, pillows, flashlight, and a helmet. Play it smart.

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 07:09 PM
But you also have to remember ho many times have we been in a slight (15%) and gotten a large sever weather outbreak, August 20th

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 07:18 PM
Whatever the case, make sure you've got your tornado safe area prepared, with bottled water, granola bars, some cash, first aid, blankets, pillows, flashlight, and a helmet. Play it smart.

My tornado safe area is my arms spread out in the wind with my eyes closed.

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 07:21 PM
haha me to. Im just hoping we get some great storms tomarrow

Derecho
06-22-2010, 07:29 PM
But you also have to remember ho many times have we been in a slight (15%) and gotten a large sever weather outbreak, August 20th

August 2, 2006, too.

But really, this event is unique. It's been an above average active tornado season across the Midwest and it only just began. Almost every tornado outbreak that develops there ends up producing dozens of tornadoes including several EF3/EF4 tornadoes. We're long overdue for a violent tornado in Ontario. Recent trends are highly concerning for all of us. I cannot recall such an active year for violent tornadoes affecting North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio. Really has me spooked. And, the shear number of these strong tornadoes that are hitting major metropolitan areas this year is phenomenal. One drill press tornado after another. Scary stuff, and now tomorrow we're inline to get in on the recent action across the Northern Plains/Midwest.

Just in time for Serge's arrival in Niagara, too ;)

Enjoy it Serge, this is rare for us.

Oh, by the way! If you spot the new emergency broadcast system on TV tomorrow, report in.

DarkSky
06-22-2010, 07:34 PM
Hey guys, I am new here ;-)! I'm so glad to see this forum. I have been fascinated and ABSOLUTELY BLOWN AWAY by severe weather..ESPECIALLY Mesocyclones. I took tomorrow off from work to track every bit of this potential brute.

That's the spirit! :D

Derecho
06-22-2010, 07:35 PM
That's the spirit! :D

A co-worker called me on Sunday asking if I could take her shift Wednesday evening. I almost said yes, but decided not to.

Close one!

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 07:40 PM
I hope the first line pases through fast like noonish or earlier. And make room for the next storms. And what are the odds wpuld you say of discreete supercells ahead of the front i think it is a good possibility , and how about a mcs or possible derecho i beleive that is good to

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 07:40 PM
I wish I could reach out and touch the stars. As the universe facinates me beyond anything.
As for now, the amazing power of wind and water of Earth makes do.

I will stare at billowing cloud tops..and when it pours..I will gladly let it rain on me.

The sharp teeth at the front of the monster. It engulfs you with darkness and cold rain. And may even send its serpent down to take your life.

A small sacrifice.

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 07:43 PM
I also emailed Geoff Coulson to see what he thinks. Havent gotten a response yet. I am also loving that 45%. It looks good. And i can already smell it :P. This morning i went on my ipod and checked the SPC and when i say 45% i choked on my cereal

Derecho
06-22-2010, 07:46 PM
Okay you lot, SREF is in.

:O !!!

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010062215/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f027.gif

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 07:47 PM
August 2, 2006, too.


I will never forget that storm. It was one of the most beautiful things I have ever witnessed. It was like hells cauldron in the sky. As if a thousand ladels spun the dark mixture from above. As if it has a million teeth and swooping veins of a great black dragon.

kthx.

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 07:48 PM
Derecho does that look good or not? i cant tell. OR if you want u can tell me how to read it. And what exactley is SREF. Is it capes

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 07:54 PM
august 2nd 2006 risk map
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day2probotlk_20060801_1730_any_prt.gif

:P

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 07:56 PM
thanks. Except we are in 45% now (Y). And does that pic derecho posted of SREF look good

Derecho
06-22-2010, 07:57 PM
august 2nd 2006 risk map
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day2probotlk_20060801_1730_any_prt.gif

:P

Only 2% tornado probabilities that day.

Dave, the SREF is the Short Range Ensemble Forecast by the SPC. The latest run indicates 'Significant Tornado' Parameters. Meaning, Michigan could be ripe for the development of tornadoes tomorrow, including possibly southwestern Ontario. Also, with those parameters, a strong tornado could definitely be possible.

Derecho
06-22-2010, 07:58 PM
OH MY GOODNESS!

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010062215/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f030.gif

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 07:59 PM
So do you think we will have a good chance of severe weather Up towards us (KW/Hamilton). Because i beleive it is pretty good

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 08:00 PM
Holly crapness wow

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 08:00 PM
Hey Derecho, where can I check out those maps?..Im at SPC cant find it eh

edit: nm found it

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 08:01 PM
Derecho that second one that you posted when you were like OH MY GOODNESS. Is that tornado as well and what does it look like for are area

Derecho
06-22-2010, 08:02 PM
I don't even know what to say:

Wow

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010062215/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f033.gif

Then 3 hours after that map:
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010062215/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036.gif

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 08:03 PM
OHHHHHHHHH Please Lord that is amazing. OH WOW please. What time peroid is that. It look like the hammer is prime for it. YESSSSSSSSSSSSS

Derecho
06-22-2010, 08:03 PM
Hey Derecho, where can I check out those maps?..Im at SPC cant find it eh

edit: nm found it

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

Bookmark it, select 'latest model run' at the top of the page. Navigate the severe weather drop down menu on the left.

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 08:04 PM
Get out yer HD cams.

Derecho
06-22-2010, 08:05 PM
OHHHHHHHHH Please Lord that is amazing. OH WOW please. What time peroid is that. It look like the hammer is prime for it. YESSSSSSSSSSSSS

00z, 03z. 33 and 36 hours from now.

Or, 8pm-Midnight tomorrow.

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 08:06 PM
HOLLY MOLLY IS THAT PERFECT OR IS THAT PERFECT

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 08:07 PM
Now let the sun shine from the morning.

Derecho
06-22-2010, 08:08 PM
Those maps give me a sickly feeling in the bottom of my stomach.

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 08:10 PM
One a scale of one to ten how does the models and everything look for being a severe weather outbreak. 10 is most 1 is least

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 08:13 PM
From experience...

7.5

Derecho
06-22-2010, 08:14 PM
One a scale of one to ten how does the models and everything look for being a severe weather outbreak. 10 is most 1 is least

Seven, maybe.

I can tell you're excited about the severe weather chances tomorrow :D

It's very hard to gauge what will happen. Models only tell so much, and that is only that there is ingredients in place with the potential to produce severe weather.

Significant widespread severe weather could develop tomorrow.
Localized severe weather could develop tomorrow.
No severe weather could develop tomorrow.

We won't know until, well, tomorrow! :)

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 08:15 PM
Ya true. I have been close to three tornadoes in my life and i never new it because i wasent very intelligant in weather

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 08:17 PM
I will be back in about 10 minutes guys. Dont go anywhere. And also. MSN anyone if you do i will add you guys if u want

Storm Chaser
06-22-2010, 08:19 PM
IF the supercells do go up around 5-6p.m., then very likely it will turn into an outbreak. Possible tornadoes, large hail, basically everything associated with those types of storms.:)

Storm Chaser
06-22-2010, 08:20 PM
And also get ready for a wicked lightning show around 11p.m.

Storm Chaser
06-22-2010, 08:23 PM
can't wait to see everyones pictures of the storm if they go up tommorow. lets hope for some good stuff!!!

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 08:24 PM
I'll be at the lake to watch the lightning (if my town isnt destroyed by an f-100)
rofl.

Hey guys..off topic from storms here..check this baby out
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=DDC
82kg/m sqr

._.

Storm Chaser
06-22-2010, 08:27 PM
lol ill be chasing the supercells if they pop up. ill be at the Sydenham lookout to take photos of the lightning over the city.

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 08:29 PM
Anyone live near Oshawa area? If you're around maybe we can meet up somewhere

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 08:36 PM
Hey storm chaser ur going to sydenham hill. Im across the other side on the west mountain

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 08:49 PM
Who thinks we will be put in a moderate risk at 2 am on wednesday

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 09:02 PM
It will also be nice because today is my b day and i get storms hopefully tomarrow

Derecho
06-22-2010, 09:08 PM
Dave, we're already under a Moderate Risk by Environment Canada. But, it's likely the 06z SPC update will include at least southwestern Ontario.

Storm Chaser
06-22-2010, 09:17 PM
Well, first if the supercells do in fact pop up i will chase them (it would be nice if they popped up in awesome chasing territory around london/stratford/woodstock area) then when the line of severe storms moves through around 11p.m. ill be photographing and taking hd video of the lightning over Hamilton. Wow-sounds like a great day. Hopefully everything pans out!
Im glad exams end at 10. :)

Storm Chaser
06-22-2010, 09:19 PM
Another good spot for anyone who wants to know is the Kern's Road lookout in Burlington.

Derecho
06-22-2010, 09:46 PM
Awaiting the new SREF runs... why must they take so long?

EDIT
Hmm... I'm confused come to think of it.

The morning MCS looks like it'll pass Chicago around mid-morning. Well, now I don't know what's going on.

11z tomorrow morning: ???
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF_avia/FCST/VSREF/20100622/prb_cnv.t23z.12.gif

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 09:50 PM
One thing I never understood..

How do I read '0z, 12z, 24z'

What...sort of time is that?..

Edit: Which chart is that? Prob of Conv

Eabie
06-22-2010, 09:54 PM
It's UTC, formerly known as GMT (Greenwhich Mean Time). You can find some easy-to-use time zone converters online to figure out what time that is here, if you don't know how to calculate it. :)

Storm Chaser
06-22-2010, 09:55 PM
thats the last thing i want....no daytime heating=bust

Derecho
06-22-2010, 09:57 PM
One thing I never understood..

How do I read '0z, 12z, 24z'

What...sort of time is that?..

Edit: Which chart is that? Prob of Conv

0000z times are Zulu time, or Universal Time (GMT)

7am

Probability of convection. Shows the MCS over Chicago around 7am. SPC said the MCS would be entering SE MI/SW ON around 13z, well wait, that makes sense. Three hours for the MCS to travel from Chicago to Detroit. OK! Got it. I know what's going on now. lol

EDIT: IDK!!!

Derecho
06-22-2010, 10:04 PM
THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EWD ACROSS LAKE MI AND INTO AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI DURING
THE MORNING THEN SWRN ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

:|
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRp_mVi969I

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 10:08 PM
LMAO AT RECORD SCRATCH HAAHAHAHHAA


Anyway
Where can I see this probability of convection map..link me up Insane thunderstorm type shown up all funny on the radar Derecho.

Edit: I live in OShawa...most storms die out by the time they get here and I get EXTREMELY pissed off

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 10:21 PM
Ya i hope some supercells pop up around here and then the line comes through. Do you still think we will get what they call for. And derecho i ment spc fron noaa i already new bout ec bt thanks anyways for the info. Well see tomarrow. Anyone want to go chasing?

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 10:27 PM
Although if the storms come through here around 1 that means we still have 3-6 pm of heating and that is prime

Derecho
06-22-2010, 10:28 PM
Waiting for the 21z SREF maps still. Must it take so long?

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 10:30 PM
Hey storm chaser, What school do you go to

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 10:30 PM
Hey derecho do you chase in a vehicle

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 10:35 PM
ahah derecho..ya im waiting too..XD! keep clicking that refresh button:D

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 10:37 PM
Ya whe you get it post it please if you can :D

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 10:40 PM
HOLY **** DERECHO LOOK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MOTHER OF :|

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 10:47 PM
What
Tell ME

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 10:48 PM
Is it good news or is it bad news

Derecho
06-22-2010, 10:50 PM
Dave, I can't afford a car. Insurance, gas, maintenance, etc. It all adds up to $1,000s per month sometimes. One day when I make enough money, though.

24 hr is in, valid 21z tomorrow. Clearly now higher tornado parameter values across southeast Michigan/Southwest Ontario. Do note, this isn't an indication of what will happen, just a look at how the atmosphere looks and if its capable of producing tornadogenesis.

Wow.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010062221/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f024.gif

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 10:52 PM
Ya.

I mean..it almost seems too good(bad)(good) to be true ._.

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 10:52 PM
Wow is that better than the first one or what

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 10:54 PM
how bout when it moves into sothern ontario

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 10:54 PM
Like do you think this has a possibility to drop large violent f3 or f4 tornadoes in ontario. And the images or charts what do they tell i know it is tornado risk but is it percentage or what?

Derecho
06-22-2010, 10:56 PM
00z tomorrow
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010062221/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f027.gif

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 10:57 PM
Oh My goodness does that look good or what. This is tornadoes right?

Derecho
06-22-2010, 10:59 PM
Like do you think this has a possibility to drop large violent f3 or f4 tornadoes in ontario. And the images or charts what do they tell i know it is tornado risk but is it percentage or what?

Low risk for southern Ontario unless things change, but Lower Michigan could definitely see a strong tornado tomorrow. Hence the current 10% hatching probabilities on the 1730z SPC Day 2 outlook

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 10:59 PM
Everything is setting up for a great storm. And everything is coming together for the possibility of tornadoes. And the likelihood of tornadoes seems to be increasing...'alot'
I'm speechless about how that model changed from last time. It basically says, things are going according to plan.

I..jizzed..in..my..pants

However..don't mistake it for what actually happens. No one can predict the future. Though..I wouldn't be surprised if there were some tornadic supercells tomorrow.

Hells to the ya of the shizzle.

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:00 PM
Derecho did you mean low risk for severe storms or low risk for a strong tornado. Wait nvr mind read that wrong. How bout supercells in the golden horshoe kw area. Ya i think i poped a u know what when i saw the models

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:05 PM
And also how about small tornadoes like f0 f1 i would just love to see one

Derecho
06-22-2010, 11:08 PM
Dave, no way of knowing how Hamilton will be affected, or if the area will even be affected at all.

Patience my friend ;)

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:10 PM
haha sorry derecho. Im just excited. Its been a dul winter with no winter storms and weve only had 2 good storms this year and my hopes are really high because the 45% and a mod risk. how do models look in your guys opinions. I think they look fine and dandy

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:12 PM
wow guys take a look at the new supercell peremiters wow

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:13 PM
Looks pretty good and dandy tomarrow

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:18 PM
Im still loving this lets hope it stays

Derecho
06-22-2010, 11:20 PM
haha sorry derecho. Im just excited. Its been a dul winter with no winter storms and weve only had 2 good storms this year and my hopes are really high because the 45% and a mod risk. how do models look in your guys opinions. I think they look fine and dandy

To tell ya the truth, southern Ontario experiences so few severe weather outbreaks that I don't exactly understand how they work around here. Give me a Plains outbreak and I can forecast to the tee, but so many factors go into Great Lake severe events, I honestly cannot say more than storms in the afternoon and evening, and oh the SREF indicates decent tornado parameters.

And really, the startling revelation that the MCS will reach SRN ON by afternoon has completely thrown me off balance from the earlier forecast that it'd reach us by mid morning. Now, I'm so confused and don't even want to attempt a forecast. This is my first storm season where I'm putting full attention to model work, etc. In the past I've completely ignored the potential until the day of, because we don't exactly have meteorologists and storm chasers meeting in one place to discuss weather. So, there was nothing to learn from. Now, after six or so years of studying Plains weather, I'm applying my knowledge to this area, and on my very first guess this morning I was wrong.

Ta da!

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:22 PM
I agree derecho. The plains are fairley easy to forecast. But here a big factor is the lakes

Derecho
06-22-2010, 11:22 PM
Heightened potential really drops off by 03z tomorrow, but parameters still remain over most of southern Ontario.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010062221/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f030.gif

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:23 PM
WE can only wait and see oh and hope to

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 11:23 PM
Aw yes, the great lakes. Damn you great lakes..damn you indeed.

However, convergence.

So damn you not great lakes, damn you not indeed.

some times =_=

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:24 PM
If this is a bust im going to cry. But it wont ruin my carrer to become a meteorologist

Derecho
06-22-2010, 11:25 PM
I agree derecho. The plains are fairley easy to forecast. But here a big factor is the lakes

I hear ya, I'm hoping that Lake Michigan trends of the last few weeks will carry over to Lake Huron! MCS's have survived the usually deadly trek over Lake Michigan recently, and they've reached Grand Rapids, MI area just as ferocious as they were when they exited Wisconsin.

That's what we need, here. The Lake Huron Storm Death Trap needs to end!

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:25 PM
And also derecho look at the model jsut before that one it looks good and stretches to the hammer :D

Derecho
06-22-2010, 11:26 PM
Aw yes, the great lakes. Damn you great lakes..damn you indeed.

However, convergence.

So damn you not great lakes, damn you not indeed.

some times =_=

Love a convergence storm, but they only ever form over KW when I'm out walking somewhere. The rest of the time they are just off in the distance, :p

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:26 PM
ANd will lake huron affect these storms. Who knows

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 11:26 PM
If you wake up and it's clear out.

You can be practically dead certain ****s goin- down.

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:27 PM
do you mean good or bad if its clear out i cant really read stars lol

Eabie
06-22-2010, 11:29 PM
Are you from the Prairies originally, Derecho? (Or the Plains, if you're American.) I'm from Winnipeg, MB, and now living in Kitchener. This is my first summer in Ontario. We had some *huge* long-lasting storms in Winnipeg in 2007 that I've wanted to relive ever since. :) There was even an F5 tornado in Manitoba that year (come to think of it, today is its third anniversary!).

Raedwulf
06-22-2010, 11:29 PM
Oh comn..you're a plains guy, right?.

I mean look at all that popcorn in the sky.
Let the sun make you some popcorn!

Edit:

ya..cuz if its clear then the sun can go to work heating the surface. And ..I mean look..it rained over a bunch of southern ontario today too..the ground is wet..air is moisturized..fuel is set..now let the sun light it up. And let the teeth have a feast

Derecho
06-22-2010, 11:29 PM
If you wake up and it's clear out.

You can be practically dead certain ****s goin- down.

Don't know. KDMX radar is showing the MCS developing now over central Iowa. SPC at 1730z thinks that line will reach us by afternoon. But, we need something to pass on by mid day to experience severe weather, or else what will destabilize the atmosphere?

Derecho
06-22-2010, 11:30 PM
06z tomorrow
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010062221/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f033.gif

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:30 PM
That doesnt look to impressive but thats after all the impresiive ones through us

Derecho
06-22-2010, 11:31 PM
That doesnt look to impressive but thats after all the impresiive ones through us

Yup, 2am overnight.

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:32 PM
We could still be in for some big ones tomarrow. We will a know in the morning. It will be like christmas eve and christmas

Derecho
06-22-2010, 11:33 PM
Are you from the Prairies originally, Derecho? (Or the Plains, if you're American.) I'm from Winnipeg, MB, and now living in Kitchener. This is my first summer in Ontario. We had some *huge* long-lasting storms in Winnipeg in 2007 that I've wanted to relive ever since. :) There was even an F5 tornado in Manitoba that year (come to think of it, today is its third anniversary!).

I'm not, born in raised in KW. Prepare yourself for no severe weather my dear. Always misses us :D

Hey, there was a tornado on the ground near Elie today. Ironic!

And you know what, the June 17th Minnesota tornado outbreak produced the first tornado on the year on the anniversary of 2009's first tornado in Minnesota.. and you guessed it... near where 2009's first tornado touched down.

Spooky stuff. 2012, anyone?

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:35 PM
haha. Mark Robinson from TWN says early afternoon is the best threat i disagree

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:36 PM
Detroit weather office says storms rolling through lansing around 4-5 am

Derecho
06-22-2010, 11:39 PM
A sign of hope:

IT IS CONCEIVABLE FOR THIS COMPLEX TO ACCELERATE OFF TO
THE EAST AND ORGANIZE INTO A DERECHO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS
ARE EAST-SOUTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS MCS/DERECHO DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH...REACHING AND PROBABLY
CLEARING THE I-69 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE CELLS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HELICITY EASILY IN EXCESS OF 350.

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:40 PM
where did you get that

Derecho
06-22-2010, 11:41 PM
where did you get that

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DTX&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:42 PM
does sound good. Will the hearing come to late. Hotest of the day is 3-5 pm

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:44 PM
Looking at the hrrr models it looks like we could be ok with a clearing spot

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:46 PM
It looks like it picks up ubber speed as it crosses lake michigan

davefootball123
06-22-2010, 11:51 PM
I have g2g guys see ya later

Derecho
06-22-2010, 11:52 PM
Nite, and BTW, happy birthday, Dave!

Derecho
06-23-2010, 12:00 AM
SPC confirms derechogensis underway.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1088.gif

SlideShowBob
06-23-2010, 12:43 AM
I'm even taking my camera into work tomorrow...plus I'll be trekking out of T.O. around 6 p.m. heading to the Hammer and Brantford...thinking of taking the weatherradio to work as well...Be safe chasing guys!

Nagii
06-23-2010, 03:25 AM
I have tomorrow off, so I will be looking for it...hopefully we get some severity.

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:04 AM
MDT zone got moved further north and east.

Looks like some pretty decent probabilities all round. Quite the volatile setup :D bring on the demons