PDA

View Full Version : Who has the most accurate weather/storm forecasts?


Smokin Joe
06-17-2010, 02:12 PM
Who does everyone think has the most accurate storm forecasts or weather forecasts in general as there always seem to be a difference in everyone's prediction.....

In my limited experience I think for storms i'd rate them SPC, EC outlooks, TWN, and Accuweather (although i like the blog Brett Anderson does for Accuweather but he has all of the country to talk about). I look at them all but rarely are they in agreement.

For example in my area Sat. has EC with a 60% chance of precip, TWN has 40%, and Accuweather in the details area says 95% chance of a thunderstorm? Whats goin on here lol?

Anyone who has more years of paying attention notice a trend to who has been more accurate in the past? or just who is everyones favorite place to go for forecasts?

Derecho
06-17-2010, 02:45 PM
Accuweather is a private enterprise. On many occasions, they have overblown severe weather outbreaks, and most recently in 2008 they made the call that the 'Super Outbreak II' would occur across the Plains, and that turned out to be a bust. They also guess the number of tornadoes, and cause much unnecessary panic among people in affected regions.

I think the SPC has the most accurate and descriptive storm forecasts. Environment Canada doesn't really have a legitimate 'storm prediction centre', it's just up to the meteorologist at the time to update a very general forecast where storms may develop in their convective weather forecasts.

Then, I'd say next would be the NWS, especially for southern Ontario events. Detroit and Buffalo offices describe weather conditions in southern Ontario when updating their AFD's, and the offices coordinate with the SPC to issue mesoscale discussions that includes a bubble over southern Ontario. It gives us a better idea of what is happening locally.

TWN doesn't really have severe storm forecasts, it's just a dumbed down severe map that the average person who is watching can understand, but there isn't a time frame of when things are expected to shake up. The SPC/NWS use UTC time frames to explain what will happen when, and if you use the HRRR weather model with the SPC, it even shows when storm intitiation will occur, where, and what to expect after the storm develops.

I'm also very keen of the SPC mesoscale analysis page, that updates half hourly and shows a plethora of atmospheric conditions over southern Ontario. Something you don't find with any Canadian weather forecast or with private enterprises like Accuweather.

All in all, I rarely check TWN or EC, and I only use Accuweather to check out the dewpoint maps.

SPC and the NWS get my vote.

Smokin Joe
06-17-2010, 03:01 PM
Derecho whats the hhhr model and how do I get to it? Thats something I haven't seen and it sounds like a good tool....

davefootball123
06-17-2010, 03:43 PM
hey guys sorry to but in. The hrrr models are forecast models. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=t3&run_time=17+Jun+2010+-+17Z . If u select NE under area that is northeast and you can choose future radars capes ect

Smokin Joe
06-17-2010, 03:52 PM
Awesome thanks all

Derecho
06-17-2010, 03:58 PM
Joe, bookmark the page, but know it'll always be bookmarked for June 17th. Just use the date drop down menu each time to get to the next day. Also, the modekl runs every hour, really just look at the 'composite reflectivity' part.

*Note: you have to manually select the next hours maps, the link dave posted is on 17z, use the date drop down menu to select 18z.

You can use the area drop down menu to zoom in on areas, we're NE on the maps.

The times like 19z, 20z, 21z are all UTC times, so just google the UTC clock to see what time is when, 20z is 4pm ET, it's very simple.