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View Full Version : Friday/Saturday: Southern Ontario


Derecho
06-16-2010, 02:08 PM
It's most concerning that we are possibly back in the trend of severe weather forming around Lake Michigan in the afternoon, then the remnant rains pass over S ONT overnight, then the storms redevelop the next day over New England.

Friday looks like this may be the outcome. There is a good risk of severe weather around Lake Michigan, then late in the evening through overnight it'll pass over us, then possibly redevelop Saturday over New England.

It's going to be a real torch on Friday, 30C and sunny in most places, hopefully we'll bank enough instability for some overnight action.

Isolated thunderstorms are appearing likely on Saturday, possibly lake breeze convergence related, and we all know what that means! (weak tornado somewhere?)

I'll keep my fingers crossed. Will update tomorrow once we have a better picture of the weekend threat.

davefootball123
06-16-2010, 08:37 PM
Well said. Lets keep our fingers crossed

Smokin Joe
06-17-2010, 10:25 AM
I like what I see on the day3 outlook this morning but in the text it says if I understand right that the western part of the slight risk area is favored at this point which would mean we may get dissapointed but I sure like to see that green circle over a good chunk of s-ont!

Derecho
06-17-2010, 12:04 PM
The one day this week I'm working 3pm-3am. :( ... Well, hopefully Serge will get a storm, I'd hate for Canadian weather to disappoint him ;)
Saturday:

...LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDWEST...
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/50 KTS OF 500 MB FLOW WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AMID A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS. HEATING AND ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO AT LEAST IND/IL. RELATIVELY COOL
MID-LEVELS AND MODESTLY FAST FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE ERN
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE MORE WESTERN SOLUTIONS OF THE
NAM/ECMWF PREFERRED.

Smokin Joe
06-17-2010, 03:02 PM
I just saw a graphic on the weather network for sat. that shows the bruce peninsula and north of lake huron as the severe potential areas.....and all of southern/southwestern ontario in the non-severe....

i don't know who to believe......it's always wait and see i guess....

Derecho
06-17-2010, 03:48 PM
If a derecho develops tonight across the Midwest, Friday may bring a better severe chance for southern Ontario, but may squash our Saturday chances.

davefootball123
06-17-2010, 04:30 PM
Hopefully we will get storms both days

davefootball123
06-17-2010, 04:54 PM
Looks like ec i saying slight risk

seziou
06-18-2010, 09:10 AM
The one day this week I'm working 3pm-3am. :( ... Well, hopefully Serge will get a storm, I'd hate for Canadian weather to disappoint him ;)


Lol, no worry ! :) I am here until the 29th of July ;) In France, it's cold and it's raining. I will be happy with a small storm !

There are some storms in the USA. I think tomorrow/this night we will have some "instability". I have a good view from my residence (I can see the lake). I hope "to have" some photos.

I see a "Tornado Watch" in the central Indiana this morning. (http://www.weather.gov/)

Good morning.

Smokin Joe
06-18-2010, 12:05 PM
Is the front going to pass too early for things to really heat up tomorrow? I know that we will still have storms but will they be strong? I was going to drive somewhere and i'm wondering if there is a better chance for severe with the storms ahead of the front even if they happen at 10-11am or will the storms along the front be stronger because it may be warmer by then Seems everyone has chance of storms or rain in the morning and late in afternoon but some hourly forecasts for what they're worth have things clearing for good by 3. I don't know what direction to travel and am wondering what u all think?

Derecho
06-18-2010, 03:08 PM
Is the front going to pass too early for things to really heat up tomorrow? I know that we will still have storms but will they be strong? I was going to drive somewhere and i'm wondering if there is a better chance for severe with the storms ahead of the front even if they happen at 10-11am or will the storms along the front be stronger because it may be warmer by then Seems everyone has chance of storms or rain in the morning and late in afternoon but some hourly forecasts for what they're worth have things clearing for good by 3. I don't know what direction to travel and am wondering what u all think?

That's my biggest fear. We won't know until tonight where the cold front will be and at what time.

Derecho
06-18-2010, 05:38 PM
Hmm, so the first front is expected now to cross southern Ontario overnight, it's way ahead of the cold front, so looks like tomorrow afternoon the cold front should come through here. I'm considering taking the day off work tomorrow, depending on how well the threat materializes for tomorrow afternoon.

davefootball123
06-18-2010, 07:39 PM
A derecho has formed just pass chicago. Hopefully we will get two rounds of storms

Smokin Joe
06-18-2010, 07:39 PM
Coming down with the storm flu derecho? Well Im hoping u take the day off tomorrow that will mean good news

Derecho
06-18-2010, 10:10 PM
Coming down with the storm flu derecho? Well Im hoping u take the day off tomorrow that will mean good news

That would only be if this develops into an evening threat for southern Ontario, but I'm thinking tomorrows risk, will be isolated to the southwest of Ontario mid-morning... the northern fringe of the cold front didn't fire across Wisconsin, and it's taken more of a SE turn to it, unless storms can fire along the northern edge of the front, I'm starting to have my doubts we'll see anything good tomorrow.

But, who knows...

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 8:41 PM EDT FRIDAY 18 JUNE 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON.

==DISCUSSION==

A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN IS
RACING TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. LATEST TIMING OFF WEATHER RADAR
INDICATES THIS LINE WILL CROSS THE BORDER INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEAR 10
PM AND INTO LAMBTON AND KENT COUNTIES BETWEEN 10.30 AND 11 PM.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS AND
SQUALLS OF 90 TO 120 KM/H AND POSSIBLY MORE. INTENSE LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HAIL.

THIS SQUALL LINE HAS A HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND INDIANA.

Derecho
06-18-2010, 10:11 PM
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:06 PM EDT FRIDAY 18 JUNE 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - LEAMINGTON - ESSEX COUNTY.

SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE RIVER INTO ESSEX
COUNTY NEAR 10 PM. WIND GUSTS AND SQUALLS OF 90 TO 120 KM/H ARE
QUITE LIKELY WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. INTENSE LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS GIVING 50 MM IN UNDER AN HOUR ARE ALSO LIKELY
IN MANY AREAS. 2 CM HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE
SHELTER BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FROM NEAR NIL VISIBILITY
IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.

seziou
06-19-2010, 07:48 AM
Some 'shower" are "begining to develop" near London. It's the afternoon in France, I can't sleep. lol

I don't know if they will turn into storm. I have a great view (360) near my residence, maybe I will take some photo if I have the opportunity.

Salut ;)

davefootball123
06-19-2010, 10:04 AM
We have to hope we get some storms today. Derecho. It looks like you are out of the slight risk box by the spc. It looks like L ontario shore line south and east

Derecho
06-19-2010, 12:22 PM
Until next time.

Like I said... if a derecho formed our severe chances would be great on Fri, but no threat on Sat. It moved too fast. :(

davefootball123
06-19-2010, 12:37 PM
Im thinking our severe chances have dimineshed

seziou
06-19-2010, 12:44 PM
Yep, we are under the "aera with instability". The storms are going to develop more at the N-E.

There is a lot of wind here, we will pass the "front" without storms.

I don't know if storms will appear at the W during the day. I don't think so, but I don't know very well the climate of Niagra...

Smokin Joe
06-19-2010, 01:34 PM
I think I'm going to head east out to Peterborough area or niagara just parked in a carpool on the 404 going to decide shortly if anyone has ideas which of the 2 looks better post soon lol

davefootball123
06-19-2010, 01:47 PM
Hey Smokin Joe. I would like two say niagara but i cant it doesnt look like much around the western end of L ontario. I dont hink we are going to get much of anything in the hammer ( Hamilton ). So im going to have to say Peterbourgh accordin to HRRR by the NWS but you never no they could be wrong.

davefootball123
06-19-2010, 01:47 PM
There also looks like more instability towards peterbourgh

Smokin Joe
06-19-2010, 02:36 PM
Heading east thanks for responding will let u know what happens I have iPhone not the greatest for pics but if I see something I'll share it

Derecho
06-19-2010, 04:58 PM
What a BUST!

davefootball123
06-19-2010, 05:02 PM
ya no kidding

davefootball123
06-19-2010, 05:08 PM
Im sorry but with all the technology we have today they should be able to predict where storms have a possibility of forming within a ball park.

davefootball123
06-19-2010, 05:08 PM
Oh and Derecho did you take the day off? Also i got a weather radio for my birthday

Smokin Joe
06-19-2010, 06:02 PM
Ya bustola I stopped at port Perry and watched dragon boat races. Heading back home now lol I said I'd share a pic here is a cloud with a base southeast of port Perry

Smokin Joe
06-19-2010, 06:11 PM
Should have said here is a pic of a bust!!!

Eabie
06-19-2010, 06:13 PM
Im sorry but with all the technology we have today they should be able to predict where storms have a possibility of forming within a ball park.

I tend to agree, though admittedly I know nothing about the process. (Hi, by the way - new to the forum.) The best storm so far in Kitchener this year that I can remember was.... May 7, I think? Quite a while ago now... I just hope July and August can deliver the goods if June completely refuses to do so. :P

I see there's some forecasts for possible thunderstorms on June 22 or 23. When's the earliest we might have a more reliable picture of that?

davefootball123
06-19-2010, 06:36 PM
Some small storms starting to fire northwest of the KW area. LETS HOPE!!!!!!!!!!

seziou
06-19-2010, 08:14 PM
I see a lot of storm development at my E and W... They are so photogenic !

I hope it will not disapear with the night ...

davefootball123
06-19-2010, 09:08 PM
Wow. We in hamilton didnt exactley get hit but I went for a drive with my dad to the escarptment with my new weather radio and saw some pretty nice structure just going to the north ease. Some nice lightniing and thunder and i tlook like it was pooring rain and possibily some hail. But the good part was there was a nice shelf cloud and behind that there was a possible wall cloud and some lowering. I forgot my camera but the structure was nice

Eabie
06-19-2010, 09:43 PM
Environment Canada issued a severe thunderstorm watch for KW at around 7:30 but has already ended it. I was a bit surprised to see that, because the sky here is so clear (we only had a spot of rain a couple hours earlier). Looking out my apartment window I *can* see huge white clouds far off in the distance that to me look like a developing thunderstorm, but they're apparently moving in the opposite direction. So no luck for us here today it seems. :/ It's been, as someone said earlier, a bust.

Smokin Joe
06-19-2010, 11:05 PM
The cell that passed the bottom of lake simcoe half hour ago looking northeast on the road running on the north side parallel to hwy 11 in Bradford
I'm a rookie but there was good structure. Left for home thinking the day was a bust but I'm happy. We were on the sw side of the cell and it pretty much was less than 5 min from my house should have morepics to put later or in the morning but just from I phone so see if any are worth it

seziou
06-19-2010, 11:39 PM
I have taken a lot of photos of cells, and a photo of a lightening near the "Apalache". I am working on my photos and I will display them in the night.

Edit :
That's the first photo, it is on my website : http://www.serge-zaka-photography.com/cieuxorageux29.html


http://www.serge-zaka-photography.com/images/29.jpg


It was a storm 100km at the E ... Very difficult to catch a lightening. The quality is bad ... The next time I will do better :)

Derecho
06-20-2010, 01:05 AM
Oh and Derecho did you take the day off? Also i got a weather radio for my birthday

No, there was no point, it was evident only weak storms would fire. Saw some lighting around 6ish in a nearby storm but that was it.

seziou
06-20-2010, 11:38 AM
That's another storm over Hamilton

http://www.serge-zaka-photography.com/800.jpg

Raedwulf
06-23-2010, 07:58 AM
That's another storm over Hamilton

http://www.serge-zaka-photography.com/800.jpg

Wow, that is just gorgeous. My jaw hit the floor. Well not really..my jaw got to like..1 or 2" from the floor..but still pretty far..considering when you sit down ..thats a big jaw..
nm.

seziou
06-23-2010, 08:17 AM
lol thanks. That's the same storm but 30 earlier :

http://www.serge-zaka-photography.com/images/cieuxnonorageux3.jpg

http://www.serge-zaka-photography.com/images/cieuxnonorageux2.jpg