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View Full Version : June 12, 2010: Southern Ontario


Derecho
06-11-2010, 11:55 AM
We're up for another round of possible isolated severe weather Saturday afternoon. It does not look impressive at all, though. Just some localized thunderstorms with the chance of a severe storm somewhere Well, we'll know tomorrow about this, model have not been very friendly with the system.

COMPARATIVELY LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST FARTHER TO THE N
AS A NRN-STREAM MID-LEVEL WAVE GLANCES NY STATE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NEWD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MORNING WITH
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IF CLOUDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM
ARE SUFFICIENTLY THIN...COMBINATION OF HEATING...LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AND PRESENCE OF 45-50 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
HAIL/HIGH WINDS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE NOT OFFERED A
STABLE SOLUTION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SLIGHT RISK IS NOT
JUSTIFIED.