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View Full Version : Severe Tstorms Mon-Wed?


Derecho
05-21-2010, 02:34 PM
Possibility of some severe weather early to mid next week, SPC has mentioned the risk for the Great Lakes region. No one appears to confident yet as to what will happen, but by the end of the week there should be a better picture.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECOND IN A SERIES OF VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...EMERGING FROM LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...LIKE THE PRECEDING SYSTEM...THE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR
THE SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY THAN EASTERLY
COMPONENT...DUE TO THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
DUE TO THIS ORIENTATION...IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY/SHEAR
PARAMETERS WILL BECOME FAVORABLY MAXIMIZED TO SUPPORT A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE
NEGLIGIBLE. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF EVOLVING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS IMPULSES PROGRESS OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH...AND AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BUT...THE PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES
AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE BECOMES TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A
SEVERE RISK AREA.

DarkSky
05-21-2010, 02:58 PM
Any forecast longer than 24hrs away from present, is taking stabs in the dark :)

I'll believe that forecast when it's issued next mid-week, FOR next-mid week :D

Hopefully something will stir up though. This sunny boring weather is starting to drive me crazy. COOL today too! After yesterday's 27-30C temps I thought summer was finally making its entrance. Then we get 15C today. GRR.

Derecho
05-22-2010, 09:23 AM
Any forecast longer than 24hrs away from present, is taking stabs in the dark :)

I'll believe that forecast when it's issued next mid-week, FOR next-mid week :D

Hopefully something will stir up though. This sunny boring weather is starting to drive me crazy. COOL today too! After yesterday's 27-30C temps I thought summer was finally making its entrance. Then we get 15C today. GRR.

It reached 24C here yesterday. :p

But, yes, I wholeheartedly agree! I'm growing dazed and confused by this lack of thunder. :(

davefootball123
05-24-2010, 07:24 PM
It is looking more unlikely for these storms to develope SPC says no severe weather on tuesday and for day 4-8 outlook they do not mention anything around the great lakes region. Everything seems to be staying in northern ontario aswell as the plains

Derecho
05-25-2010, 02:19 PM
Sigh, I was really looking forward to this. Is it going to be another year where high pressure is always locked over the GL region?

There is a fairly decent tornado threat this evening across northern Ontario around Wabakimi Provincial Park and Winisk River Provincial Park.