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View Full Version : Severe Tstorms Friday Pt. 2


Derecho
05-07-2010, 07:49 AM
The other thread is almost ten pages long, and mostly discussion about Wednesday's severe weather. Sorry if this is breaking rules, feel free to merge if needed.

Today, there is a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms from Windsor to Peterborough, according to the SPC. Damaging winds oif 90kmh, small hail, and heavy rain appear to be the main threat, with perhaps an isolated tornado in the southwest or along the Lake Erie Shoreline this afternoon.

It's going to be cold and windy today across much of southern Ontario. Weather model runs show 40-50F DP's from Woodstock northward. Guess we'll have to wait and see what happens, or if we're dropped from the Slight risk at 13z or 1630z.:confused:

From Environment Canada:
TODAY AND TONIGHT..SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD TO THE DUNDALK HIGHLANDS AND GOLDEN HORSESHOE IN THE
EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

Derecho
05-07-2010, 01:05 PM
According the the latest RUC EH1 0-1/03-km model runs, looks like a significant tornado potential may be unfolding across Ohio today... perhaps any storm that develops across Essex-Kent-Lambton-Middlesex-Elgin counties could rotate.

SWS from EC:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
AND THEY WILL SOAK THE DISTRICT TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A RISK
THAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO MAY BECOME SEVERE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST IN THE
WINDSOR TO CHATHAM AREA AND ADJACENT WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST.
CLAIR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY AS
REQUIRED.

Valid 22z:
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ruc/255/maps/2010/05/07/15/RUC_255_2010050715_F07_EHI1_SURFACE.png

DarkSky
05-07-2010, 01:23 PM
Hm.... looks a bit far south.

I was hoping to get at least something today judging from what the forecasts on TV were saying early this morning, but everything heading this way seems to be dissipating before it gets here. 'Probably only have rain.

Derecho
05-07-2010, 01:47 PM
I heard a crack of thunder about 15 minutes ago. What is moving through is just the 'warm' front ;) the best chance will be this afternoon/eve as the surface low approaches.

:fingers crossed:

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 03:19 PM
Hoping I get a photogenic storm today and it doesn't have to be severe. We've had about 2.5 inches of rain in the last few days and the grass is really green!

Derecho
05-07-2010, 03:34 PM
Hoping I get a photogenic storm today and it doesn't have to be severe. We've had about 2.5 inches of rain in the last few days and the grass is really green!

SPC has Wallaceburg on the northern end of the tornado watch requirement bubble.

Derecho
05-07-2010, 03:47 PM
The 19z run of the RUC actually brings some 50-60F dewpoints into southern Ontario, mostly south of a line from Goderich to Toronto between 21z and 01z. It's a step up from the 40-50F from earlier runs!

EDIT: Across the river from Windsor

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
LAKE ERIE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 04:10 PM
yep, and it says storm motion to the NE at 50 mph?, sounds better than an Eastward motion

Derecho
05-07-2010, 04:48 PM
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:16 PM EDT FRIDAY 7 MAY 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
INTENSIFYING AND MAY REACH THE BORDER NEAR 6.00 PM. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED.

THERE IS ALSO A LESSER THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO..AND IF
THIS THREAT INCREASES A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED.

Derecho
05-07-2010, 07:31 PM
We're having a tstorm right now. It's 7C out. Black sky, lots of thunder.

It's cool, because the base clouds are moving west, but the storm is moving northeast.

EDIT: Three CG lightning bolts in the last five minutes just to the west of my house. It's pouring rain, almost wish there would be some small hail.
EDIT EDIT: Literally lightning every minute right now. :thumbs up:
EDIT EDIT EDIT: Buffalo radar has measured 58 lightning strikes in the last 30 minutes. We just had a big flash of lightning right over the house.

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 07:44 PM
awesome, you're having a lightning storm!

AT 709 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BELLEVILLE...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARLETON...MOVING EAST AT 70
MPH.

These storms are approaching the Detroit river and are starting to bow out

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 07:47 PM
Tvs in Michigan on track to Amherstberg in Ontario

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 07:49 PM
http://i40.tinypic.com/2lvk6t4.jpg

Derecho
05-07-2010, 07:51 PM
awesome, you're having a lightning storm!
These storms are approaching the Detroit river and are starting to bow out

I've been so absorbed by this storm we just had, I forgot about down by you. Yes, quite the impressive storm. Also, a small cell is passing over Wallaceburg right now. Four lightning strikes from that cell in the last ten minutes.

There is an area of strong rotation that just entered Lake Erie from the MI shoreline. It will reach Harrow in 15 minutes. If you look at the picture, I've adjusted the SRV to co-ordinate with the storm motion, so you can clearly see where the storm is rotation. There is also a yellow TVS because NROT is measuring considering ground rotation, implying a waterspout may be over Lake Erie right now.

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 07:53 PM
hope you enjoyed your storm, there's gonna be more coming up near waterloo in the next while, just rain and thunder and lightning down here

Derecho
05-07-2010, 07:55 PM
hope you enjoyed your storm, there's gonna be more coming up near waterloo in the next while, just rain and thunder and lightning down here

A second cell just entered Waterloo right now, massive branch like thunderbolt just shot horizontally across the sky. The window I am at overlooks all over KW because of my elevation. Spectacular view for storm watching.

EDIT: I'm just not sure whether I should count this as a new storm in my tally and up it to 10 storms, or leave it at 9. Buffalo radar has seen ten bolts of lightning in the last 15 minutes from Wellesley Twsp to Waterloo.

EDIT: Awesome! Lightning just struck the park across the street!

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 08:00 PM
Count it, it is a storm afterall

Derecho
05-07-2010, 08:05 PM
It's too bad that cell in Essex County right now is going to remain about 15km south of Wallaceburg at it's closest.

EDIT: Not to brag, but black sky incoming once again!

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 08:07 PM
bummer!!

oh wunderground radar shows a storm of 9000 ft tops with a TVS NorthEast of Ann Arbor
edit: it's gone, was on the screen for a few seconds

Derecho
05-07-2010, 08:08 PM
bummer!!

oh wunderground radar shows a storm of 9000 ft tops with a TVS NorthEast of Ann Arbor
edit: it's gone, was on the screen for a few seconds

Ohh... I see. I've always wondered why the program I use only indicates a TVS when a tornado is on the ground or is about to form shortly, it can go outbreaks without indicating a single one. Wunderground radar practically indicates TVS's every few scans. Most interesting.

EDIT: Very intense CG lightning again here.

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 08:14 PM
its back on radar again, in michigan

http://i42.tinypic.com/6789qe.jpg

BTW W1 in Ohio is Tornado warned with 3.25 inch hail apparently

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 08:22 PM
You seem to be getting the intenser storms in Waterloo, just rain and thunder and odd visible lightning here

Derecho
05-07-2010, 08:24 PM
You seem to be getting the intenser storms in Waterloo, just rain and thunder and odd visible lightning here

It's fantastic. I can't recall when our last training thunderstorm event was for Waterloo. There is about 3km between my house and where I need to be in an hour, should make for an interesting walk. 7C, heavy rain, intense lightning. :D

Derecho
05-07-2010, 08:26 PM
its back on radar again, in michigan

http://i42.tinypic.com/6789qe.jpg

BTW W1 in Ohio is Tornado warned with 3.25 inch hail apparently

That storm is heading right for downtown Cleveland. NWS Cleveland has gone with a svr tstorm warning for the counties down river from the cell, hopefully the tornado threat is diminishing. The storm will reach Cleveland in 50 minutes.

EDIT: Is it safe for me to chime in that yet again, black sky is approaching?

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 08:28 PM
I remember being on the Chi-Cheemaun on lake huron during an intense thunderstorm that lasted 45 minutes, I was the only one on the deck and the bolts were literally 3-5 km's away, it was unreal, I know that was dangerous but everyone should experience that once a year at least LOL

this was the storm
http://www.freewebs.com/2005wallaceburgstorms/july312005shelfcloudtobermory.JPG

Derecho
05-07-2010, 08:30 PM
OL, those are some amazing shots of a perfectly structured storm! It's fantastic how everyone is watching the storm approach, you must have felt at one with everyone lol

Storm buffs do go to some insane lengths to see the storm, don't they? ;)

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 08:31 PM
Is the black sky photogenic?

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 08:33 PM
ty, I was really lucky, was one huge shelf

Derecho
05-07-2010, 08:34 PM
Is the black sky photogenic?

No, it's just darker patches of overcast, nothing like a mid-summer severe thunderstorm black, just your run of the mill dark sky :rolleyes:

Derecho
05-07-2010, 08:35 PM
ty, I was really lucky, was one huge shelf

For sure! Was there any damage afterward? Clearly looked capable of producing at least 90-100kmh winds.

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 08:37 PM
I tried looking it up but couldn't find any stories on it but I heard Sudbury had quite a storm that day by the locals on Manitoulin Island

ontariolightning
05-07-2010, 08:42 PM
Enjoy your storms!

rawfed
05-07-2010, 11:06 PM
Intense lightning in St. Catharines right now. Rolling thunder. Strong wind gusts and rain.

DarkSky
05-08-2010, 02:41 PM
its back on radar again, in michigan

http://i42.tinypic.com/6789qe.jpg

BTW W1 in Ohio is Tornado warned with 3.25 inch hail apparently

Could you post the URL to that radar map? Looks like a WUnderground map but it's got pretty good zoomed-in resolution!

DarkSky
05-08-2010, 02:43 PM
Last night storms:

Long lasting stormed, producing basically just rumbling thunder. Some half decent CG/CC strikes but they were spaced too far apart to effectively photograph them (I posted some damage shots though in another thread). I imagine there's quite a bit of tree damage. Just from my short drive to get the shots of that larger felled tree (looked like a large branch), I noticed a lot of branches down on the road and in people's yards.

Derecho
05-08-2010, 07:03 PM
The storms last night were fantastic. I stopped counting lightning strikes on doppler, over KW, after seventy ;)