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Derecho
05-03-2010, 10:58 AM
EDIT: CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY NOW.

Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across southern Ontario.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
ON DAY 5...CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST AS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ACCELERATES
NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
STILL APPEARS THAT A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HERE...ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL BE QUITE OPTIMAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND/OR A LARGE-SCALE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

DarkSky
05-03-2010, 01:28 PM
Hmm... I don't trust any forecasts beyond 24hrs. (if that) Yesterdays forecast was for cloud and rain today. It's been blue skies and strong sunshine all day long. My guess is that each 24 hrs the chance of the forecast being correct splits by 50% :)

Smokin Joe
05-03-2010, 03:00 PM
Giddy up! I'm off Friday so keeping my fingers crossed.....hope I'm not a jinx

Derecho
05-03-2010, 03:35 PM
Giddy up! I'm off Friday so keeping my fingers crossed.....hope I'm not a jinx

I'm off Friday, too, and Saturday! That's a good 48 hours of room for the storms to move. Looking at dewpoint temperatures, I'm concerned for potential because GFS is only indicating 50F around here... with the good dews staying in Ohio/PA. Still a few days, this bears watching!!

(It's like the week before Christmas)

xxCanuck
05-03-2010, 04:47 PM
Hmm... I don't trust any forecasts beyond 24hrs. (if that) Yesterdays forecast was for cloud and rain today. It's been blue skies and strong sunshine all day long. My guess is that each 24 hrs the chance of the forecast being correct splits by 50% :)

I happen to agree. Here we were supposed to have Rain and potential for Thunderstorms but its a beautiful day out.

Derecho
05-04-2010, 06:55 AM
I'm not too impressed by the temperatures on Friday. 15C.

There is potential tomorrow for severe thunderstorms, a slight risk is in effect from Woodstock southward. Hail and damaging winds are the forecast main threat.

Derecho
05-04-2010, 01:01 PM
So, it's looking good now. SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for most of Southern Ontario. Potential exists for bow echo thunderstorms and perhaps supercells through the early afternoon to evening across southern Ontario ahead of a cold front!

:D

Derecho
05-04-2010, 07:38 PM
Valid 21z tomorrow: ;)

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2010/05/04/18/NAM_221_2010050418_F27_EHI_3000_M.png

Derecho
05-05-2010, 09:58 AM
Slight risk reissued for southern Ontario today by the SPC!

From EC:


TODAY AND TONIGHT..CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION. AS THE
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD, THE COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

Derecho
05-05-2010, 02:54 PM
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:19 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 5 MAY 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= HURON - PERTH.

STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL CROSS THE REGIONS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS.

DarkSky
05-05-2010, 03:16 PM
Lets see those watches push father ENE and into the Niagara region. All this sunshine and 25-30C weather is becoming a tad boring :D

Derecho
05-05-2010, 04:00 PM
Lets see those watches push father ENE and into the Niagara region. All this sunshine and 25-30C weather is becoming a tad boring :D

Waterloo Region is under a warning for a dwindling storm that's just about gone poof. The cell was producing 60-100 bolts of lightning when it was near Mitchell, it had a 1.68 hail marker and the storm track had it directly going over my house. Once it reached the Waterloo/Perth county line, it had a major shift east and its 60-65dbz are now 49dbz. I'm not impressed.

The cells in Lambton/Kent/Essex counties are impressive, 70dbz, three of them have shown strong SRV rotation. Strong rotation is located northwest of Chatham about 15km, another area of rotation is near Alvinston, about 20 minutes ago it was very broad, it's tightened since. A third area was just south of Windsor about 30 minutes ago.

Derecho
05-05-2010, 04:20 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if a tornado touched down somewhere from Lake St. Clair to Thamesville in Kent County judging by these SRV scans from earlier:

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 04:21 PM
http://i40.tinypic.com/2lsjy3c.jpg

I suck at paint and cameras but this is what I saw north of Wallaceburg, good looking shelf cloud

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 04:25 PM
oh and at the time of that pic, this was the radar

http://i44.tinypic.com/t64g3k.jpg

Derecho
05-05-2010, 04:25 PM
http://i40.tinypic.com/2lsjy3c.jpg

I suck at paint and cameras but this is what I saw north of Wallaceburg, good looking shelf cloud

Here is the radar presentation from that cell:

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 04:30 PM
I don't think that is it, it was the cell before that cause I was outside at the park watching it to my north and it wasn't raining on me

Wet Paws
05-05-2010, 04:31 PM
Waterloo Region is under a warning for a dwindling storm that's just about gone poof. The cell was producing 60-100 bolts of lightning when it was near Mitchell, it had a 1.68 hail marker and the storm track had it directly going over my house. Once it reached the Waterloo/Perth county line, it had a major shift east and its 60-65dbz are now 49dbz. I'm not impressed.

The cells in Lambton/Kent/Essex counties are impressive, 70dbz, three of them have shown strong SRV rotation. Strong rotation is located northwest of Chatham about 15km, another area of rotation is near Alvinston, about 20 minutes ago it was very broad, it's tightened since. A third area was just south of Windsor about 30 minutes ago.
Hi Lennon, I wish I was here to see it but I was not home yet and missed it passing through Mitchell. I love watching weather but am really green when it comes to everything you said. Also wish I had a camera when I seen it moving pass Stratford. Purposely took the back road so I could watch it. New here and will contribute what I can....maybe I can at least report what I see here before it comes to you in KW.

Derecho
05-05-2010, 04:35 PM
Hi Lennon, I wish I was here to see it but I was not home yet and missed it passing through Mitchell. I love watching weather but am really green when it comes to everything you said. Also wish I had a camera when I seen it moving pass Stratford. Purposely took the back road so I could watch it. New here and will contribute what I can....maybe I can at least report what I see here before it comes to you in KW.

It fizzled out as it passed me, now it's suddenly developed about 10km east of me. :mad:

It actually stayed pretty south of Mitchell.

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 04:38 PM
it looked better in real life, but here is the shelf clouds evolution

http://i39.tinypic.com/iptsw1.jpg

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 04:39 PM
st mary's gets a lot of tornadic storms it seems

Derecho
05-05-2010, 04:43 PM
I don't think that is it, it was the cell before that cause I was outside at the park watching it to my north and it wasn't raining on me

Then, it was probably the cell that hit Port Lambton. It's now near St. Thomas. My radar program only goes back so many scans. That storm was impressive as it was crossing the border, I should have taken a screen shot.

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 04:45 PM
yeah, it hit port lambton / sombra pretty hard

Derecho
05-05-2010, 04:45 PM
st mary's gets a lot of tornadic storms it seems

The storm wasn't rotating at the time. If you're referring to the diamond shaped marker in the cell, it's a small hail marker.

EDIT: TWN is reporting a funnel cloud was spotted by a stormline caller in Kitchener... it was probably a 'SLC'... or 'scary looking cloud'.
EDIT EDIT: I think I know what the caller was reporting, there was a lowering where moisture was being drawn into the storm out ahead of the cell, that was probably it.

Derecho
05-05-2010, 04:46 PM
yeah, it hit port lambton / sombra pretty hard

Is there damages?

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 04:48 PM
My aunt said her garbage cans went flying and a lot of tree branches are off the trees, and she said someone told her that a tree fell on someones car, that is in Sombra

Wet Paws
05-05-2010, 04:49 PM
That may have been the formation I seen near Stratford (headed toward Kitchener) wishing I had a camera.

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 04:50 PM
ah, scud very rarely tricks me, I am sure a few people thought a tornado was forming here earlier, the scud was putting on quite a show

Derecho
05-05-2010, 04:52 PM
My aunt said her garbage cans went flying and a lot of tree branches are off the trees, and she said someone told her that a tree fell on someones car, that is in Sombra

I know Sombra quite well, use the border crossing there a lot. Plus, my family lives in Corunna. Any way you can get up there to take photos of the damage?

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 04:54 PM
I sold my car so I have no way to get there, my aunt said it wasn't a big tree, but I am guessing the winds would have at least had to have been 80 km/h right?

Derecho
05-05-2010, 04:55 PM
I sold my car so I have no way to get there, my aunt said it wasn't a big tree, but I am guessing the winds would have at least had to have been 80 km/h right?

Sounds about right. A spotter reported 75kmh winds somewhere in the area.

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 04:57 PM
1.25 inch hail north east of Leamington

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 05:01 PM
environment canada is terrible at warnings, doesn't even say where the severe storms are and where they will be at

xxCanuck
05-05-2010, 05:04 PM
We have Rain and weak Thunder here right now.

Derecho
05-05-2010, 05:05 PM
environment canada is terrible at warnings, doesn't even say where the severe storms are and where they will be at

You're preaching to the choir :rolleyes:

The new Canada-wide emergency alert system goes into effect next month... EC performs well with warnings when it's an isolated event. But, put together three or four thunderstorms, one or two severe, then EC can't handle it.

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 05:07 PM
it's about time we get one

Derecho
05-05-2010, 05:08 PM
Very intense thunderstorm right now over me. Tropical downpour and lots of thunder. This is worse than the severe thunderstorm we had an hour ago.

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 05:10 PM
oh crap, becareful the lightning doesn't fry your electronics!

Derecho
05-05-2010, 05:12 PM
oh crap, becareful the lightning doesn't fry your electronics!

Surge protector. Plus, it's not that intense of lightning. Just more intense than the one thunder I heard during the 'severe' thunderstorm earlier.

EDIT: I'm not seeing any severe threat for Friday over southern Ontario. It looks like it will all stay stateside. Essex, Kent, Lambton, Elgin & Middlesex counties might see something, though.

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 05:14 PM
yes, learned that the hard way in 2003 when we were in the middle of an electrical storm, fried our tv, two phones and computer

Derecho
05-05-2010, 05:16 PM
yes, learned that the hard way in 2003 when we were in the middle of an electrical storm, fried our tv, two phones and computer

That sucks, did you have to buy a new computer?

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 05:17 PM
We always seem to get the storms (near and around the st clair river) storms usually weaken over the lake..today though they strengthened over the lake, I wish the lake was never there, better storms and it would only take thirty minutes to get to Windsor

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 05:19 PM
I was going to get a new computer in a month anyway, and the tv was old too, that was some storm though

Derecho
05-05-2010, 05:19 PM
We always seem to get the storms (near and around the st clair river) storms usually weaken over the lake..today though they strengthened over the lake, I wish the lake was never there, better storms and it would only take thirty minutes to get to Windsor

I have a firm belief that if we weren't surrounded by so much water, that we'd experience the same style of severe storms that our friends in OH and NY experience. Those long-lived intense bow echo thunderstorms that happen quite frequently there. Once the storms interact with the water here, they weaken.

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 05:21 PM
4 cm hail in point peele

Derecho
05-05-2010, 05:21 PM
I was going to get a new computer in a month anyway, and the tv was old too, that was some storm though

Nature's helping hand, :cool: I bet the phones were in dire need of being replaced, too. lol

Derecho
05-05-2010, 05:22 PM
4 cm hail in point peele

Spotter reported?

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 05:22 PM
oh yes I agree but on the flip side the lakes also give us lake breeze thunderstorms which can rotate

DarkSky
05-05-2010, 05:22 PM
Talk weather people, weather :) :)

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 05:23 PM
Spotter reported?

oh no just going by what it is saying on radar

Derecho
05-05-2010, 05:25 PM
Talk weather people, weather :) :)

Electrical storms frying electronics is weather related ;)

DarkSky, looks like you're about to get hit. I was just wondering where you were at. Though, radar presentation doesn't look too impressive.

EDIT: There is a line from Hamilton to Waterford, pushing east. Maybe it will get its act together!! It's headed for you.

DarkSky
05-05-2010, 05:31 PM
CHATBOX NOW OPEN!

(click top banner then see top of your screen)

Derecho
05-05-2010, 05:34 PM
I'm most interested in if there were any tornado or funnel cloud reports in Kent County from earlier today. (check pg 3 for SRV images I posted).. looking forward to a storm report statement tonight or tomorrow from EC.

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 06:06 PM
A channel London said they had a 100 km/h wind gust in the city

Derecho
05-05-2010, 06:47 PM
A channel London said they had a 100 km/h wind gust in the city

Yikes, any damage?

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 08:56 PM
they didn't talk about any damage

ontariolightning
05-05-2010, 09:05 PM
nice storm coming off of northern lake st clair, heard thunder already

Derecho
05-05-2010, 09:09 PM
nice storm coming off of northern lake st clair, heard thunder already

Oi, where did all these storms come from?

How come Brant/Niagara counties are having continuous thunderstorms and I'm not???

EDIT: There is hope! A small cell has popped up 16km west of Stratford moving in my direction. I'll put on a pot of coffee...

Derecho
05-05-2010, 09:16 PM
nice storm coming off of northern lake st clair, heard thunder already

50+ lightning strikes from that storm in the last 30 minutes. Nothing spectacular, but surely a great light show!

DarkSky
05-05-2010, 11:12 PM
This storm started at like 6pm and it's STILL going on here in ST. Kitts (and it's almost midnight!)

Derecho
05-06-2010, 06:56 AM
This storm started at like 6pm and it's STILL going on here in ST. Kitts (and it's almost midnight!)

:mad:

Was there any flash flooding, DarkSky?

StarryNite
05-06-2010, 09:55 AM
Wicked storm last night here in St Kitts. Power went off at one point for a brief moment and lots of lightning. Loved it (although my daughter didnt..lol)

DarkSky
05-06-2010, 10:58 AM
:mad:

Was there any flash flooding, DarkSky?

Nah, there wasn't that much rain. Basically just a light rain on and off as the thunder and lightning would pick up, drop off for awhile, then pick up again.. over a the course of 6 hrs.

ontariolightning
05-06-2010, 01:03 PM
you can go on theweathernetwork.com and type in london wallaceburg chatham among other towns and cities and see peoples pics from yesterdays storms

ontariolightning
05-06-2010, 01:04 PM
nice shot of the shelf in london

http://media.twnmm.com/storage/2473271/233