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View Full Version : Apr.6, 2010: Possible THUNDERSTORMS Tues/Weds


DarkSky
04-04-2010, 10:05 PM
It's not showing on the EC forecast (for Niagara at least) but my WeatherBug app on my phone is showing risk of thunderstorms for this Tuesday and Wednesday. 'Could be the first ones of the year this upcoming week! (hope hope)

Derecho
04-05-2010, 04:17 PM
See Text risk tomorrow for us with a Slight risk from the border eastward through NY state. Maybe we'll get upgraded to a slight, too? TWN has tomorrow's forecast for 16C and rain. EC has it at 16C chance of a tstorm through late morning/afternoon.

Won't get my hopes up for this event. But, damaging winds and small hail appear to be the biggest threat.

SlideShowBob
04-05-2010, 09:15 PM
I will be happy just to hear the rumble of thunder....
sorry, it's been a boring winter here...

lunderk
04-06-2010, 12:31 AM
Looks like it could even be bigger than expected... Nice t-storms over Western Mich right now too.

WOCN11 CWTO 060257
Special weather statement
Issued by Environment Canada Ontario region. 10:57 PM EDT Monday
5 April 2010.

Special weather statement issued for..
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms arriving tonight.

A warm front stretching from lower Lake Michigan to Lake Erie will
continue to move northward tonight giving heavy showers with
thunderstorms to the regions by Tuesday morning. The main impact of
these storms will be heavy showers giving 10 to 20 mm of rain in a
short period of time. There is also the possibility of frequent
lightning and gusty winds.

As the storms approach Southwestern Ontario early Tuesday morning
there is the possibility that severe thunderstorm watches or warnings
may be issued.

Listen for further statements. Additional information may also be
found by consulting the latest public forecast. The next public
forecast will be issued by 5 AM.

DarkSky
04-06-2010, 12:54 AM
Note to all: when posting weather statements please put square brackets around the word CODE at the beginning, and square brackets around /CODE at the end of the statement, that way we can include weather statements into posts without the statement taking up a whole screen. (I just thought of doing it this way). I have another thread started for just EC statements regarding todays storms, but will post coded statements here in this thread. EG:


394
WWCN11 CWTO 060415
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 12:15 AM EDT TUESDAY 6 APRIL 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KALAMAZOO MICHIGAN ARE
TRACKING EASTWARD AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF WINDSOR NEAR 3 AM IF
THEY CONTINUE ON THEIR CURRENT TRACK. GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL FREQUENT
LIGHTNING POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN WITH
REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO 78 KM/H.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AS THESE STORMS
APPROACH THE ONTARIO BORDER. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE WATCH AREA MAY BE EXPANDED
EASTWARD.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/OSPC


I'll be heading to bed after I finish my work, probably around 2-3am. I just hope I don't miss a show because I'm sleeping!!

Derecho
04-06-2010, 08:39 AM
The watches/warning and statement have ended. Boo. Hopefully something else will some through later today.

DarkSky
04-06-2010, 10:56 AM
Image @<hidden> 10:24am

http://img541.imageshack.us/img541/1134/dy1.gif

Smokin Joe
04-06-2010, 12:32 PM
Looks like Windsor area likely to get hit in an hour or so.......tornado sig on the detroit radar at 1150am.....storm watch issued by EC for extreme sw ontario......can see the storm on exeter radar now.....

Derecho
04-06-2010, 02:59 PM
Must say, I'm rather pleased with the way EC is handling the severe thunderstorm warnings. Including where the storm is near and where it will be and when.

I just got in from the college, walked home through the rain, and to my merry surprise, three claps of thunder. Further thunder right now, too. Smile on my face :D

The severe thunderstorm near Simcoe is exibiting 70.5dbz right now. It's also 41K ft high.

DarkSky
04-06-2010, 03:21 PM
Our first thunder of the year! It's official, first thunderstorm of 2010 reached me at 2:42pm today. Rumbling of thunder getting stronger, NICE storm with strong doppler reflectivity on the southern part of it rolling by right now. Unfortunately the strong part of this one will be well to my south, but nice to have our first storm nonetheless!

http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/2262/tempb.th.gif (http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/2262/tempb.gif) http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/5599/bgma.th.gif http://img682.imageshack.us/img682/9352/bufloop.th.gif (http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/5599/bgma.gif)

Derecho
04-06-2010, 03:39 PM
Our first thunder of the year! It's official, first thunderstorm of 2010 reached me at 2:42pm today. Rumbling of thunder getting stronger, NICE storm with strong doppler reflectivity on the southern part of it rolling by right now. Unfortunately the strong part of this one will be well to my south, but nice to have our first storm nonetheless!

http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/2262/tempb.th.gif (http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/2262/tempb.gif) http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/5599/bgma.th.gif (http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/5599/bgma.gif)


Pockets of stronger storms inside that rain mess heading for you still. Should be an awesome hour for you.

That cell over Lake Erie now is rotating, even has a hook. Might be producing a waterspout.

DarkSky
04-06-2010, 03:42 PM
11 Doppler Radar Detected Storms
<table class="dataTable" onclick="sortColumn(event)" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <thead> <tr> <td class="sortH" type="FirstInteger"> </td> <td class="sortH" title="Sort by ID">ID</td> <td class="sortH" title="Sort by Max" type="FirstInteger">Max</td> <td class="sortH" title="Sort by Top" type="FirstInteger">Top</td> <td class="sortH" title="Sort by VIL" type="FirstInteger">VIL</td> <td class="sortH" title="Sort by Chance of Severe Hail" type="FirstInteger">Severe Hail</td> <td class="sortH" title="Sort by Chance of Hail" type="FirstInteger">Hail</td> <td class="sortH" title="Sort by Max Hail Size" type="Float">Max Hail Size</td> <td class="sortH" title="Sort by Speed" type="FirstInteger">Speed</td> <td class="sortH" title="Sort by Direction" type="FirstInteger">Direction (from)</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="rowW" onmouseover="this.className='rowY'" onmouseout="this.className='rowW'"> <td class="sortC">0http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/smash/clearTriangle.gif </td><td class="sortC">B0</td> <td class="sortC">69 dBZ</td> <td class="sortC">28,000 ft.</td> <td class="sortC">46 kg/mē</td> <td class="sortC">100% chance</td> <td class="sortC">100% chance</td> <td class="sortC">2.25 in.</td> <td class="sortC">58 knots</td> <td class="sortC"> W (275) </td> </tr> <tr class="rowW" onmouseover="this.className='rowY'" onmouseout="this.className='rowW'"> <td class="sortC">2 </td><td class="sortC">C1</td> <td class="sortC">54 dBZ</td> <td class="sortC">8,000 ft.</td> <td class="sortC">12 kg/mē</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0.00 in.</td> <td class="sortC">35 knots</td> <td class="sortC"> W (259) </td> </tr> <tr class="rowW" onmouseover="this.className='rowY'" onmouseout="this.className='rowW'"> <td class="sortC">2 </td><td class="sortC">Q1</td> <td class="sortC">53 dBZ</td> <td class="sortC">5,000 ft.</td> <td class="sortC">3 kg/mē</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0.00 in.</td> <td class="sortC" colspan="2">New Cell</td> </tr> <tr class="rowW" onmouseover="this.className='rowY'" onmouseout="this.className='rowW'"> <td class="sortC">2 </td><td class="sortC">K1</td> <td class="sortC">52 dBZ</td> <td class="sortC">4,000 ft.</td> <td class="sortC">5 kg/mē</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0.00 in.</td> <td class="sortC">60 knots</td> <td class="sortC"> W (269) </td> </tr> <tr class="rowW" onmouseover="this.className='rowY'" onmouseout="this.className='rowW'"> <td class="sortC">2 </td><td class="sortC">J1</td> <td class="sortC">50 dBZ</td> <td class="sortC">4,000 ft.</td> <td class="sortC">4 kg/mē</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0.00 in.</td> <td class="sortC">51 knots</td> <td class="sortC"> W (259) </td> </tr> <tr class="rowW" onmouseover="this.className='rowY'" onmouseout="this.className='rowW'"> <td class="sortC">2 </td><td class="sortC">R1</td> <td class="sortC">50 dBZ</td> <td class="sortC">8,000 ft.</td> <td class="sortC">3 kg/mē</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0.00 in.</td> <td class="sortC" colspan="2">New Cell</td> </tr> <tr class="rowW" onmouseover="this.className='rowY'" onmouseout="this.className='rowW'"> <td class="sortC">2 </td><td class="sortC">S1</td> <td class="sortC">49 dBZ</td> <td class="sortC">6,000 ft.</td> <td class="sortC">2 kg/mē</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0.00 in.</td> <td class="sortC" colspan="2">New Cell</td> </tr> <tr class="rowW" onmouseover="this.className='rowY'" onmouseout="this.className='rowW'"> <td class="sortC">2 </td><td class="sortC">P1</td> <td class="sortC">48 dBZ</td> <td class="sortC">11,000 ft.</td> <td class="sortC">7 kg/mē</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0.00 in.</td> <td class="sortC" colspan="2">New Cell</td> </tr> <tr class="rowW" onmouseover="this.className='rowY'" onmouseout="this.className='rowW'"> <td class="sortC">2 </td><td class="sortC">N1</td> <td class="sortC">48 dBZ</td> <td class="sortC">12,000 ft.</td> <td class="sortC">5 kg/mē</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0.00 in.</td> <td class="sortC">29 knots</td> <td class="sortC"> WSW (241) </td> </tr> <tr class="rowW" onmouseover="this.className='rowY'" onmouseout="this.className='rowW'"> <td class="sortC">2 </td><td class="sortC">E1</td> <td class="sortC">46 dBZ</td> <td class="sortC">8,000 ft.</td> <td class="sortC">2 kg/mē</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0.00 in.</td> <td class="sortC">54 knots</td> <td class="sortC"> NW (312) </td> </tr> <tr class="rowW" onmouseover="this.className='rowY'" onmouseout="this.className='rowW'"> <td class="sortC">2 </td><td class="sortC">T1</td> <td class="sortC">46 dBZ</td> <td class="sortC">7,000 ft.</td> <td class="sortC">2 kg/mē</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0% chance</td> <td class="sortC">0.00 in.</td> <td class="sortC" colspan="2">New Cell</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td>http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/smash/clearTriangle.gif</td> <td class="sm">= Tornado Vortex Signature</td> <td> </td> <td>http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/smash/clearDiamond.gif</td> <td class="sm">= Mesocyclone</td> <td> </td> <td>http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/smash/clearSquare.gif</td> <td class="sm">= Hail</td></tr></tbody></table>

Derecho
04-06-2010, 05:48 PM
OT, but I went out for a smoke an hour ago and found the neighbours house on fire called we called 911. Wow!

DarkSky
04-06-2010, 06:47 PM
from James S. who was in the more intense part of the storm as it went through the area:

checked out the core in that southern cell today. It's a good thing it didn't track along the 401, some of the worst visibility I've ever seen! Light winds nothing special some pea sized hail, but the rain was so thick it formed a solid sheet on the windshield and visibility looking out an open window was maybe 15 feet. It wasn't much of a looker but lots of messy scud was racing around in all directions behind the core. There was a flank line following that had a nice angle to it and some good vertical motions in the base, little faster than one would want though. Hope things tomorrow are a little slower

ontariolightning
04-06-2010, 06:49 PM
I live in NE Wallaceburg and was looking north, counted 39 cloud to ground lightning bolts in less than 10 minutes, aunt who lives 5 minutes out of town told me she had golf ball size hail and then some rotation in the clouds, I checked radar at the time and saw a TVS where she lives

Derecho
04-07-2010, 08:36 AM
Severe Tstorm Warning for Elgin County this morning. Storms continue elude KW and Niagara.

Derecho
04-07-2010, 09:02 AM
Norfolk County is getting slammed with another supercell this morning with 72dbz returns about 25km southwest of Simcoe. 42kft tops.Turkey Point/Port Dover are going to get slammed.

xxCanuck
04-07-2010, 09:53 AM
Here in Mississauga we had weak thunder and very little lightning this morning. No warnings.

Itchy
04-08-2010, 03:09 AM
The core was described as above in the quote, and hail wasn't bigger than pea size and just frequent enough to notice. The cell was still just getting started, but I thought it would reach the great lake a lot faster than it turned out..... figures, and to top it all off the solid tvs over the great lake. I tried to take a picture of the forward flank but rain was dumped on me faster than I expect thanks to the small red blob north of the big one. After the zero visibility, yet very bright core I was directly mid section of the cells core. There was a lot going on at the time as things seemed to be converging, I was somewhere east of Sparta in Elgin county by about ten minutes drive.

To the north, sections of clouds were moving in opposing directions, scud close to me was rising as it moved at a good rate
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4038/4501604512_f0b8d188c3.jpg

To the east behind the core the clouds were going in all different directions and some scud once in awhile would bend and twist into the base and rise up like steam seen here, the worst part of the core is straight ahead in this shot flying east
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2759/4501554123_eafa1ac5b6.jpg

Then to the south a flank that seemed to be moving faster than the storm and catching up had some good vertical motions and not any rotation but a lot of spots in the base converging
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4055/4502134728_07326e4b64_b.jpg

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4026/4501540497_1f9a7894a1_b.jpg

This was the cell a few minutes before I was in the core
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4049/4501506884_86293a1e1c_o.gif
On the lake
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4007/4501506860_e79d2f8b30_o.gif

DarkSky
04-08-2010, 12:34 PM
Awesome post.

Images with radar map with text descriptions of the event. 'Doesn't get better than that! :) :)

Smokin Joe
04-08-2010, 02:35 PM
Awesome that the 2010 season is underway been waiting....i've been stuck in Richmond Hill working for the past two days.......was wondering what it looked like down there. Was hoping that a storm would make it up this way but temps and dewpoints were way lower (11c and 5.4c dewpoint, while SW Ont was 20c and like 15c dp) and I just heard a distant rumble of thunder and gave up hope for anything this way...had a good time watching radar tho lol next best thing

Can't wait for the next round.....hope it's not too far out and way more widespread :D....thanks for the reports and pics!